After losing to Illinois over the weekend, ESPN’s FPI indicates the Michigan Wolverines may be in jeopardy of making a bowl game this season:
Saturday’s loss for the Michigan Wolverines was a tough pill to swallow. Many were optimistic about the reigning national champions’ chances coming off a bye week with quarterback Jack Tuttle. But that hope died very quickly in Champaign on the 100th anniversary of Memorial Stadium. Tuttle had one of the worst performances in recent memory for a Michigan quarterback, and for what feels like the seventh time in seven games, head coach Sherrone Moore has quarterback controversy.
ESPN’s FPI has railed Michigan this season. Starting the year at No. 12, the Wolverines have fallen all the way to No. 38 after Saturday’s loss. Somehow, the maize and blue still rank higher than the two teams that have beaten them. Washington is one spot behind at No. 39, while Illinois is only ranked No. 55.
The FPI in general is pretty wonky heading into Week 8. Ohio State moved up to No. 1, Texas dropped to No. 2, and then Alabama rose to No. 3 despite losing to Tennessee. Oregon, which is the AP No. 1, has not budged from its No. 8 spot. Ole Miss , another team with two losses, is also ranked ahead of the Ducks at No. 5.
These anomalies exist beyond the top-10, too. For example, Auburn is 2-5 and is ranked No. 32. The FPI gives the Tigers just a 14.6 percent chance of finishing .500. Kansas has the same 2-5 record, has an 8.8 percent chance of being bowl eligible, but is ranked No. 35. That’s the lowest odds of any team ranked inside the FPI’s top-35.
Michigan is another one of those teams in jeopardy of being bowl eligible, per the FPI. The Wolverines’ record projection is 5.9-6.1, but they have a 68.2 percent chance of winning six games. That likely boils down to two of their remaining home contests — against Michigan State and Northwestern.
The Spartans are up next this weekend. ESPN’s analytics is giving Michigan a 67.2 percent chance of winning the game, and the FPI has the State ranked as the No. 62 team in the country following an upset win over Iowa.