As Bryce Underwood prepares to potentially start Week 1 for Michigan, we explore what success truly looks like for a true freshman QB in Ann Arbor. From historical comparisons to strategic expectations, here’s why Michigan just needs him to steer steady in 2025.
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Defining success for Bryce Underwood
This must be what it was like when The Beatles came to America. When 17-year-old five-star phenom Bryce Underwood put pen to paper in December, it rivaled the hysteria that ensued when the English rockers came to the States in Feb. 1964. Albeit only in the greater Ann Arbor area.
Quarterback recruits of this magnitude rarely come to Michigan. The Wolverines have been called “Position-U” across several units, but never for signal callers. And after J.J. McCarthy’s historic tenure, it felt like the Wolverines were about to return to quarterback purgatory. However, after a season of watching a passing attack that was less potent than Iowa’s, head coach Sherrone Moore went all-in for the prized recruit.
Conversely — and although Moore would never admit this publicly — despite Underwood’s pedigree and talent, I think Moore would prefer to sit him to start the year. Let me explain.
Michigan is going to play two of the three hardest defenses — Oklahoma and Nebraska — on its schedule in the first month of the season. Both games are on the road and, pending the NCAA’s determined punishment for the alleged sign-stealing, both could be without Moore on the sidelines.
Ideally, Fresno State transfer Mikey Keene would start the first four games of the season, Underwood would work in the second half for reps against New Mexico and Central Michigan, and then take over full-time during the bye before Wisconsin comes to Ann Arbor the first weekend of October.
This would allow Keene, a veteran of 39 career games, to handle the pressure on the road and protect Underwood’s confidence until he gets his feet underneath him. However, with Keene slowly (slowly) working back from injury and the recent addition of journeyman Jake Garcia (who puts the ‘mid’ in Midwest) for depth, it appears Underwood is going to be taking the reins immediately.
If Underwood starts the season-opener against New Mexico, he will be only the fourth true freshman quarterback in program history to do so. (Quick: can you name the other three before continuing? Nope, not Denard. Not Drew Henson either. Steven Threet is a great guess, but he was actually a redshirt freshman in 2008. Same with Grbac in the late 80s and Navarre in 2000.)
The only three true freshman quarterbacks to start a season-opener for the Wolverines are Rick Leach (1975), Chad Henne (2004), and, sigh, Tate Forcier (2009). Here’s how they stacked up statistically in their maiden seasons:
- Leach: 30-of-85 (35.3 percent), 647 yards, three touchdowns, 10 interceptions; 490 rushing yards, five rushing touchdowns
- Henne: 240-of-399 (60.2 percent), 2,743 yards, 25 touchdowns (tied program record), 12 interceptions; two rushing touchdowns
- Forcier: 165-fo281 (58.7 percent), 2,050 yards, 13 touchdowns, 10 interceptions; 240 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns
Leach capped his career as one of the most accomplished quarterbacks in Michigan history. He finished with a 38-8-2 record and finished eighth in the Heisman Trophy voting as a junior and third as a senior. Not bad for the first-round draft pick of the Detroit Tigers, who hit .268 in the Show.
Henne would never put up better passing yards or touchdowns than his freshman season, but that was also the benefit of playing with Braylon Edwards on the outside. Despite never being able to topple the Buckeyes, Henne went 36-14 as a starter and left as Michigan’s all-time leader in completions, passing yards and passing touchdowns.
Forcier won his first four starts at Michigan, including a ranked win over Notre Dame. After losing a heartbreaker to Michigan State the following week, this was a real sentence from Bleacher Report in 2009:
“After another near comeback victory for Michigan’s Tate Forcier against Michigan State on Saturday, his performance begs one question.
“Should the freshman be considered as a runner in the Heisman Trophy race?
“After five games, the answer is yes.”
Forcier would go on to lose 11 of his next 16 starts, struggle academically, and attempt to transfer to Miami (FL) and San Jose State but ultimately never played college football again after his sophomore season.
Nationally, high-profile true freshman quarterbacks have also seen their fair share of ups and downs, with most campaigns offering a mixed bag of results.
For example, USC’s Matt Barkley (2009), Penn State’s Christian Hackenberg (2013) and Auburn’s Bo Nix (2019) were all announced as Day 1 starters. All three threw for more than 2,500 yards and won seven or more games — Barkley and Nix won nine — as true freshmen. However, all three also completed less than 60 percent of their passes, two threw 16 or fewer touchdowns (Hackenberg reached 20), and two also threw 10 or more interceptions (Nix only threw six).
- 2009 Barkley: 211-of-352 (59.9 percent), 2,735 yards, 15 touchdowns, 14 interceptions; two rushing touchdowns
- 2013 Hackenberg: 231-of-392 (58.9 percent), 2,955 yards, 20 touchdowns, 10 interceptions; four rushing touchdowns
- 2019 Nix: 217-of-377 (57.6 percent), 2,542 yards, 16 touchdowns, six interceptions; 313 rushing yards, seven rushing touchdowns
These mixed performances have made sustainability an issue and offer strong reasoning as to why only one true freshman quarterback (2018 Trevor Lawrence, who threw for 3,280 yards, 30 touchdowns and just four interceptions at Clemson) has won a national championship since 1985.
However, two teams have recently been very close. Alabama’s Jalen Hurts (2016) and Georgia’s Jake Fromm (2017) were not named starters coming out of camp as true freshmen, but both were the starters by Week 2. Hurts and Fromm provided steady, game-manager hands to run-heavy offenses (both were Top-12 nationally), allowed their defenses to dominate (both were Top-6 nationally), and guided their teams to national runner-up finishes.
- 2016 Hurts: 240-of-382 (62.8 percent), 2,780 yards, 23 touchdowns, nine interceptions; 954 rushing yards, 13 rushing touchdowns
- 2017 Fromm: 181-of-291 (62.2 percent), 2,615 yards, 24 touchdowns, seven interceptions; three rushing touchdowns
This is the recipe Michigan is hoping to emulate in 2025 and the same recipe it used for McCarthy his first season as a starter in 2022. After winning the job against Hawaii, he balanced Michigan’s Top-5 rushing offense, while receiving elite support from a Top-7 scoring defense en route to a trip to the College Football Playoff.
- 2022 McCarthy: 208-of-322 (64.6 percent), 2,719 yards, 22 touchdowns, five interceptions; 306 rushing yards, five rushing touchdowns
Surrounding Underwood will be a similar complement of players that helped McCarthy succeed — three experienced starters on the offensive line, a two-headed rushing attack, a crop of exciting freshmen, and a defense that will be among the best in the country.
Michigan simply needs Underwood not to wreck the car this year. He’s being handed the keys to a sports car and just has to keep it between the lines. Remember, this is a team that beat the national champions on the road and a fully loaded Alabama team without the threat of the forward pass to close the season.
Eventually, Underwood will be asked to shoulder more of a burden as the barriers to success are heightened, but in his first season, a reliable game manager is all Michigan needs to make a CFP run. The superstardom can come later; for now, all Underwood needs is composure. And maybe a little help from his friends.