After dismantling Northwestern, Michigan shot up the ESPN FPI rankings. Here’s where the Wolverines rank ahead of the matchup with Ohio State:
All eyes are pointed on Columbus as The Game will be played this weekend between the Michigan Wolverines and Ohio State Buckeyes . At the beginning of the season, this was one of the most anticipated matchups of the year, where the national champion Wolverines went to The Shoe in hopes of winning four-straight against a revamped Ohio State team.
Instead, Michigan fell off the map a bit, suffering several losses in the middle of the season and dropping to a season-low No. 46 in the FPI following the loss to Oregon in the Big House a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, Ohio State has hung around the top three for the entire season; the Buckeyes have been in and out of the top spot for most of the year.
Heading into The Game, Michigan shot up nine spots, the most in the country this week, to No. 34 overall. The model was clearly impressed with the Wolverines’ 50-point performance, smashing a Northwestern team that was supposed to make the game competitive. It was easily Michigan’s best game of the season on all fronts.
Ohio State moved up a position to No. 2 overall, coming off a dominant win at home over a College Football Playoff-worthy Indiana Hoosiers squad. There was a bit of concern early in the contest, but the Buckeyes scored just before the half following a botched snap by the punter, and then Caleb Down ran back the first Indiana punt of the second half for a score. Swings like that have been insurmountable for opponents who would have otherwise played pretty well against the Buckeyes this season.
Michigan fans have hope that they can compete with Ohio State in Columbus this year coming off such a strong win over Northwestern. But ESPN’s analytics don’t like the Wolverines’ chances of pulling off the upset. ESPN Bet has the Buckeyes as a 20.5-point favorite, and their matchup predictor gives Ohio State a 91.8 percent chance of winning this game. On top of that, Michigan is +1000 on the moneyline, meaning a $10 bet would win you $100 if the Wolverines were victorious.
A large reason for that is the efficiencies of these teams. The FPI ranks Ohio State as the most efficient team in the country at 90.3 out of a possible 100 points. They’re the No. 2 offense and No. 5 defense in terms of efficiency. Michigan ranks at No. 47 ranking No. 82 in offense and No. 38 in defense. Special teams is the only area that the FPI gives the Wolverines an efficiency advantage with Michigan ranking No. 4 compared to Ohio State’s No. 31.
Unfortunately, it doesn’t appear that Michigan can play spoiler for Ohio State’s playoff hopes either. The Buckeyes have a 99.5 percent chance of making the playoffs per the FPI and have the highest odds of winning the national title at 22.1 percent. A win for the Wolverines would, however, boot Ohio State from the Big Ten Championship Game if Oregon and either Penn State or Indiana win this weekend.
With the scrum of Big Ten teams sitting around .500, here is how the conference’s top 10 looks with one week to go per the FPI:
- Ohio State (No. 2 overall)
- Oregon (No. 7 overall)
- Penn State (No. 9 overall)
- Indiana (No. 11 overall)
- USC (No. 18 overall)
- Iowa (No. 20 overall)
- Minnesota (No. 33 overall)
- Michigan (No. 34 overall)
- Wisconsin (No. 41 overall)
- Nebraska (No. 44 overall)
There are a couple of battles remaining between these teams, and a few others that should make the upcoming weekend really interesting as we put a bow on the 2024 college football regular season.