With the entirety of the non-conference schedule in the rearview mirror, Dusty May’s first season as head coach of the Michigan Wolverines is off to an incredible start. But how does his start compare to Juwan Howard and John Beilein?
There’s no doubt Dusty May and the Michigan Wolverines basketball team are off to an incredible start. Sitting at 13-3 overall and 5-0 in Big Ten play, the Wolverines have exceeded even the most positive of preseason outlooks by a mile. For the sake of Michigan fans, hopefully the good times continue to roll.
May accumulated 8-3 record in the non-conference, with the three losses being by a combined five points. His signature wins came against KenPom No. 53 Xavier by 25 points and KenPom No. 73 TCU by 12 points. The three losses were all respectable (Nos. 45 Oklahoma, 49 Arkansas and 80 Wake Forest ) but all the more frustrating given how winnable each game was.
Today, we wanted to compare May’s non-conference performance in his first season at Michigan with the most two recent head coaches, Juwan Howard and John Beilein. We are obviously in a different era of college athletics now with the implementation of super-conferences, NIL and the transfer portal, but there are lessons to be learned by taking a peak at history.
Juwan Howard: 2019-20
Howard inherited a team that was coming off a Sweet 16 appearance under Beilein. The offseason saw the departures of Charles Matthews, Ignas Brazdeikis and Jordan Poole, but players like Zavier Simpson, Jon Teske, Isaiah Livers, Eli Brooks, and a freshman in Franz Wagner led the way for a great first year for Howard.
In the non-conference, the Wolverines went 9-2 with a tournament victory in the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament. The two losses came to KenPom No. 9 Louisville by 15 points and No. 17 Oregon in overtime by one point. Both were certainly respectable losses.
The Wolverines notched several incredibly impressive victories. In the Battle 4 Atlantis, Michigan knocked off No. 89 Iowa State , No. 84 North Carolina (which was ranked No. 6 in the country at that time in the AP Poll), and No. 2 Gonzaga by 18 points. Michigan also beat Creighton at home earlier in the year. Creighton was unranked in the polls at the time, but ended up at No. 12 on KenPom.
The NCAA Tournament would end up being canceled due to the pandemic, so nobody knows how far Michigan would have gone in March.
John Beilein: 2007-08
Beilein took over in Ann Arbor during a time of turmoil. The team he inherited was led by Manny Harris, Ron Coleman, DeShawn Sims and Ekpe Udoh. In non-conference play, Michigan went an underwhelming 5-8.
The five wins were nothing notable, as they came over Ferris State, Radford, Brown, Eastern Washington and Oakland. Brown was the most respectable of the bunch, as KenPom had it rated No. 134.
It’s worth noting Beilein and the Wolverines had a brutal non-conference schedule. Of the eight losses, four of them came against teams in the KenPom top-20, as UCLA (4), Duke (6), Georgetown (7) and Butler (20) all had great years. Not all the losses were excusable, however, as Beilein and company fell to Boston College, Central Michigan, and a Jeremy Lin-led Harvard team.
The rough non-conference schedule would be a harbinger of what was to come, as Michigan struggled all season and missed the NCAA Tournament and NIT .
It’s very safe to say May’s first non-conference performance was leaps and bounds better than Beilein’s, but not nearly as successful as Howard’s. The are, of course, other variables at play like returning talent, schedule difficulty and what the opponents went on to do that season.
The lesson here seems to be obvious but worth noting — coaching careers aren’t made or lost in the non-conference, especially in a coach’s first year. Beilein ended up being the greatest basketball coach in Michigan basketball history despite the very rough start. Conversely, Howard ended up flaming out in spectacular fashion in just a few years despite the incredibly hot start to his coaching career.
May has more challenges ahead but if early results are anything, so far so good.