Last year gave us the second-ever all-1-seed Final Four. Will we see that trend continue this year? There’s a chance. Last year, the top four teams in the country separated themselves not only on the court, but also when looking at advanced metrics. They were clearly the best. This year is a little more balanced. I truly believe we have a clear top eight this year, and I will not be shocked to see those eight exclusively end up in the Final Four. Here is how we see those eight (and 17 more) shaping up in our latest college basketball rankings.
Top 25 College Basketball Rankings
1. Michigan
The Wolverines are about as convincing as a No. 1 overall team can be at this point in the season. They’re 22-1 against the ninth-most difficult schedule in the nation. Ten of those wins have been against top 45 ranked teams on KenPom. And most of them have been by double digits. Dusty May has created a buzzsaw that will likely be the number one overall seed on Selection Sunday.
2. Arizona
I don’t think any less of Arizona after their loss to Kansas, but I don’t think any more of them either. It will probably be better for them in the long run to not have to worry about an undefeated season. It was definitely a growth opportunity for freshmen Koa Peat and Brayden Burries to play in a hostile environment like Allen Fieldhouse.
3. Houston
If I had to pick a national champion today, it might just be the Houston Cougars. This program under Kelvin Sampson has always been elite at defending and rebounding, but never had enough offense to take home a title. That will not be the issue this year with star freshmen Kingston Flemings and Chris Cenac leading the way.
4. Duke
I view this Duke team as being quite similar to last year’s, with Cameron Boozer taking the Cooper Flagg role and Isaiah Evans in Kon Kneuppel’s. Like last year, I worry about their ability to close out tight games, and that may prove to be their Achilles heel (again) in the NCAA Tournament.
5. Illinois
Keaton Wagler finally looked mortal against Michigan State on Saturday, but the defense of Jeremy Fears will do that to people. The loss against Michigan State doesn’t change my viewpoint a whole lot – but it does underscore the need for Kylan Boswell if this team wants to make a run to the National Championship.
6. UConn
The Huskies finally lost their first Big East game of the season, on the road at St. John’s. I still view the Huskies as a National Championship contender, but St. John’s definitely exposed the lack of interior defense that UConn can have at times.
7. Florida
The Gators are once again looking like the class of the SEC after a massive road win at Texas A&M. They will be a tough out in the postseason because most teams will struggle to match up with their massive frontcourt of Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon, and Rueben Chinyelu. Texas A&M certainly did.
8. Michigan State
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Jeremy Fears now has multiple games of questionable antics after a little hip check in the Illinois game. He’s beginning to get a reputation as college basketball’s dirtiest player, the most prominent case since Grayson Allen. True or not, it’s good for the sport to have a unified villain.
9. Kansas
I’m frankly tired of the Darryn Peterson saga. I don’t understand why one of the nation’s best players, and top NBA prospects, doesn’t outwardly appear to be trying to play every minute of basketball that he possibly can. And behind closed doors, maybe he is. But the game-by-game “will he or won’t he” is honestly annoying.
10. Iowa State
Potentially, only Arizona has a more impactful remaining schedule than Iowa State, whose Big 12 schedule is incredibly back-loaded with games against Kansas, Houston, Arizona, and BYU remaining on the docket. Tamin Lipsey is starting to look like the Tamin Lipsey we saw last season, and he will need to be in order for the Cyclones to keep pace in the Big 12.
11. Gonzaga
I was beginning to think that this year’s Gonzaga team might be different from the Gonzagas of the last four years, and more like the teams from 2017 and 2021 that got to the precipice of a National Championship. But a loss to Portland certainly changes things. If you can lose to Portland, you can lose early in the NCAA Tournament.
12. Purdue
After a 3-game skid, the Boilermakers got the ultimate pick-me-up: back-to-back games against Maryland and Oregon. Fletcher Loyer has led them in scoring in back-to-back games, and he’s going to need to be good if Trey Kaufman-Renn and Ocar Cluff aren’t going to pick it up.
13. North Carolina
The Tobacco Road Rivalry always delivers, and Seth Trimble delivered an indelible image with his buzzer-beater last Saturday. But let’s shout out Derek Dixon, who had an incredible drive and kick through traffic to make it all possible.
14. Nebraska
The Cornhuskers got to right their two-game skid thanks to a game against Rutgers. I’m still personally not on board with this team being a National Championship contender. They will go as far as Rienk Mast can take them.
15. Kentucky
The Wildcats got a huge emotional win on Saturday night as they beat Tennessee on a night where they were honoring the 30th anniversary of their 1996 National Championship game. Head Coach Mark Pope was a captain on that team, and now has so much more job security than he had just six weeks ago when the Wildcats were 9-6.
16. St. John’s
The Red Storm haven’t lost since January 3 – thanks in large part to Rick Pitino switching to a bigger lineup with Bryce Hopkins, Dillon Mitchell, and Zuby Ejiofor on the court at the same time. This has really opened up the floor for the guards, who are also playing better during this run.
17. Saint Louis
Like Bachman-Turner Overdrive, Josh Schertz’s Billikens are taking care of business. They are very quietly demolishing every mediocre A10 team that stands in their way, not moving the needle a whole lot in either direction, and remaining a sleeper pick to make a deep tournament run.
18. Virginia
I think it’s time that I give the Cavaliers some due. They’ve just very quietly climbed up to 9-2 in the ACC, beating the teams that they are supposed to beat. Ryan Odom is looking like one of the best new hires in all of college basketball.
19. Louisville
I have long bemoaned this team not being its true, fully healthy self, but they certainly looked like it against NC State. Ryan Conwell and Mikel Brown Jr. had the rare combined stat line of 76 points, 16 rebounds, and 8 assists. Incredible performance from a dynamic backcourt duo.
20. Vanderbilt
Like Tom Petty, this team is free-falling. We have long documented Vanderbilt’s lack of size, but they really need to get Duke Miles back healthy in the backcourt. No Miles is placing a lot on the plate of Tyler Tanner.
21. Tennessee
Tennessee may have lost to Kentucky, but they are continuing to get great performances from freshman Nate Ament. He’s gone for at least 28 points and 6 rebounds in each of the last two games, and appears to be turning the corner in his freshman season, finally.
22. BYU
This team is just a little hard to figure out. With AJ Dybantsa, Richie Saunders, and Rob Wright, this team has the offensive firepower and overall talent level to beat anyone. But they just haven’t beaten any great teams (no one in this top-25). They certainly CAN beat anyone, but they also HAVE NOT beaten anyone.
23. Iowa
The Hawkeyes will go as Bennett Stirtz goes. They don’t really have a whole lot in terms of secondary scoring options, and he has been great in this 6-game win streak. Can they find another scorer down the home stretch of the season?
24. Alabama
It appears that the Charles Bediako saga is at its end, as his motion for a preliminary injunction was denied, which overruled the temporary restraining order that was allowing him to play. Legal jargon aside, he’s not eligible anymore, which is huge for the Crimson Tide, who struggle to rebound and have no interior defense to speak of without him.
25. Auburn
Will the real Tahaad Pettiford please stand up? This Auburn team feels so close to taking the next step in returning to the form they had last season. Keyshawn Hall and KeShaun Murphy have been great at holding down the paint. But the Tigers need Tahaad Pettiford to return to his more efficient 2024-2025 self.
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