Just about everything is new for the Michigan Wolverines as they kick off the Dusty May era on Monday against Cleveland State. Our preview for Game 1 of the 2024-25 season:
When Michigan football struggles, Michigan basketball rises, right? The hope in Ann Arbor is that just like 2020-21, the basketball team can step to the forefront, though that is no small ask for a completely overhauled program. Out is Juwan Howard, as well as six of the eight leading scorers from last season. That is probably a good thing after a disastrous campaign, but now it is up to Dusty May and an army of transfers to get this team back on track.
Expectations are modest, but there is upside here. The Big Ten preseason media poll had the Michigan Wolverines ninth. KenPom has them 36th to start the year, eighth in a very squished-together conference. Joe Lunardi has this squad as a No. 8 seed as the season kicks off. None of those are cause for celebration, but point to legitimate opportunities for this team this year. Everything is hypothetical right now, but Monday night’s opener against Cleveland State will give a glimpse into this team’s potential.
Cleveland State Vikings (0-0) at Michigan Wolverines (0-0)
Date & Time: Monday, Nov. 4, 8 p.m. ET
Location: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI
TV/Streaming: BTN
The Cleveland State Vikings are a traditional basketball opener, sitting 183rd in Kenpom after a 21-15 finish (seventh in the Horizon League) last year. That schedule featured exactly zero Power Five opponents, so it is tough to really know the quality of this team, though the Vikings have just two NCAA Tournament berths in the past decade and a half: a beatdown from No. 2 Houston in 2021 and an upset of No. 4 Wake Forest in 2009 before falling to Arizona in the Second Round.
These two teams did meet in November 2012 during the on-campus portion of the NIT Season Tip-Off (which Michigan won at Madison Square Garden). John Beilein’s team dominated, 77-47, thanks to double-digits from Tim Hardaway, Nik Stauskas, and Trey Burke…sigh. Good times. More recently, the Wolverines have taken down Horizon League members Youngstown State in 2023-24, Purdue Fort Wayne in 2022-23, and (How Good Is) Oakland in 2020-21.
One Big Question: What is the vibe?
There is very little value in looking back at Michigan’s 2023-24 season, as basically everything has changed. There is something in looking at May’s time at Florida Atlantic, but even that was with a different caliber of player and different conference to plan for. The two exhibition wins were definitely instructive, and I am curious to see what trends remain (tempo, depth, defense), but my biggest focus on Monday is actually just how much this looks like a team.
Just about everyone on the roster is new to Ann Arbor, and also new to each other. With so much of May’s approach on both sides of the ball involving movement and communication, there are likely some growing pains, but how cohesive this group looks in its first true action will be telling. Michigan struggled with the fundamentals at the end of Howard’s tenure, giving up tons of offensive rebounds and leaving opposing cutters wide open, while having no identity on the other end. If the Wolverines come out looking like an energized, connected team from the jump, the bad taste of the last couple years will be gone quickly.
One Thing to Watch: Bombs away
The Wolverines had no problem launching from deep against the Oakland zone (15-for-35) and were just as efficient on lower volume against Toledo (9-for-22). Every expected contributor, aside from Vlad Goldin, got in on the action, and May’s FAU teams were not afraid of letting shots fly from behind the arc (even if the results were not always lethal). May’s principles are all about finding good shots and firing them off, and oftentimes that will be from three.
Last season, Cleveland State was poor defensively (231st per Kenpom), but had a top-10 defensive three-point rate, allowing just 30 percent to go in. I am very interested to see if this dissuades the Wolverines and ends up with more action in the paint where they should have a sizable advantage. It just feels like a brand new roster, playing its first game at home, is going to want to make a splash; I think this results in a lot of threes, especially early on. Despite the Vikings’ success in this area last season, I imagine Michigan will be alright from three on Monday.