Selection Sunday is quickly approaching, and Michigan is playing AP top-25 basketball with just a couple weeks remaining in the regular season. Using KenPom’s metrics, we predict how they’ll fare in the NCAA Tournament based on historical data:
The Michigan Wolverines are in the midst of a four-game winning streak in the heart of Big Ten play. Their record has ballooned to 18-5 with their recent success as they sit just a half-game out of first place in the conference, with two of their next three games against the other two teams in contention for the No. 1 spot.
While exciting, the next few days will likely mean a wide difference in terms of their seeding in the NCAA Tournament.
Today, we decided to dig a little deeper in the KenPom rankings to examine how teams of similar stature have faired in the past couple tournaments. We examined five comparable teams, evaluated where they were seeded and their final results.
Something of note before we dig in — KenPom rankings are not one-to-one. They receive an overall rating, and then ratings for both offense and defense. This year has seen some of the highest-graded teams of the last five seasons. The data we drew for this article came from Saturday evening after most of the action concluded. As of the writing of this story, five teams currently have a NET rating of 30 points or higher, and 30 have scored higher than 20 points. In 2024, only three teams hit the 30-point marker, and only 17 were above 20. The year before, not a single team finished with a rating above 30 and just 14 teams were higher than 20. Teams are much more efficient, and the top teams are the best we have seen in years.
Now with all that out of the way, here is where Michigan is currently ranked in KenPom, the five most comparable teams over the last five tournaments, and how those programs did.
2024-2025 Michigan Wolverines
- KenPom ranking – Overall: No. 19, Score: +23.53
- ORtg (Offensive Rating) – Overall: No. 23, Score: 118.7 (the higher score, the better)
- DRtg (Defensive Rating) – Overall: No. 22, Score: 95.2 (the lower score, the better)
Most Comparable Teams
2024 Marquette Golden Eagles (27-10) – No. 2 seed
- KenPom ranking – Overall: No. 13, Score: +23.02
- ORtg (Offensive Rating) – Overall: No. 21, Score: 118.2
- DRtg (Defensive Rating) – Overall: No. 17, Score: 95.2
- NCAA Tournament: Sweet 16 loss to No. 11 NC State
These two teams are maybe the most similar of the five that we found, and it will show the importance of seeding for the Wolverines this postseason. As a No. 2 seed, Marquette started with No. 15 Western Kentucky, where the Golden Eagles marched to an easy win. Then came a much closer contest with a hot No. 10 Colorado, where Marquette still won by two possessions. Their season came to an end in the Sweet 16 against a No. 11 NC State team that had the most momentum in the country, winning the ACC Tournament and riding it all the way to the Final Four.
This data also shows how deep college basketball is this season. A 23.02 rating was good enough for No. 13 last year. Right now, that marker would put them in 22nd.
2023 Purdue Boilermakers (29-6) – No. 1 seed
- KenPom ranking – Overall: No. 7, Score: +23.24
- ORtg (Offensive Rating) – Overall: No. 12, Score: 117.7
- DRtg (Defensive Rating) – Overall: No. 24, Score: 94.5
- NCAA Tournament: First Round loss to No. 16 Farleigh Dickinson
Everyone remembers this Purdue team losing to Farleigh Dickinson in the first round. The reason? Turnovers! Purdue had 16 in that game, which caused one of the biggest upsets in the history of the sport.
Similar to the 24-25 Wolverines, this Boilermakers’ squad was also top-25 in both ORtg and DRtg per KenPom, and are in the 23-point range for overall score. Even as a No. 1 seed, it was not enough to stave off disaster.
The second-most comparable team to Michigan in this NCAA Tournament was No. 2 Arizona. Shockingly, they Wildcats also dropped their first matchup to No. 15 Princeton. Their ORtg and DRtg were very similar at 118.2 and 96.3, respectively.
2022 Arizona Wildcats (33-4) – No. 1 seed
- KenPom ranking – Overall: No. 5, Score: +25.96
- ORtg (Offensive Rating) – Overall: No. 7, Score: 118.6
- DRtg (Defensive Rating) – Overall: No. 21, Score: 92.6
- NCAA Tournament: Sweet 16 loss to No. 5 Houston
This year was by far the toughest to benchmark. The Wildcats were a No. 1 seed, a mark the Wolverines don’t expect to hit in 2025, although it is not impossible. They cleared No. 16 Wright State, but then barely beat No. 8 TCU in overtime. They lost to No. 5 Houston in the Sweet 16.
2021 Ohio State Buckeyes (21-10) – No. 2 seed
- KenPom ranking – Overall: No. 11, Score: +23.58
- ORtg (Offensive Rating) – Overall: No. 4, Score: 120.7
- DRtg (Defensive Rating) – Overall: No. 82, Score: 97.1
- NCAA Tournament: First Round loss to No. 15 Oral Roberts
This is the closest team in overall score to the Wolverines, but the difference between offense and defense makes it a little more tricky. Ohio State’s offense was better than Michigan’s, with Duane Washington Jr. and E.J. Lidell scoring more than 16 points per game. At the same time, the defense was two full points worse than Michigan’s this year.
Nevertheless, with the tight score, it’s worrisome they lost their tournament opener to Oral Roberts in overtime. The Buckeyes’ downfall — 16 turnovers. While Ohio State was much more reliant on their offense, they had similar concerns to this current Michigan squad. A veteran Oral Roberts team that could keep up offensively caused significant problems, and the Wolverines could fall into a similar trap depending on their first postseason matchup.
2019 Virginia Tech Hokies (26-9) – No. 4 seed
- KenPom ranking – Overall: No. 13, Score: +24.07
- ORtg (Offensive Rating) – Overall: No. 11, Score: 118.1
- DRtg (Defensive Rating) – Overall: No. 20, Score: 94.0
- NCAA Tournament: Sweet 16 loss to No. 1 Duke
The Hokies entered the tournament as a No. 4 seed after a quarterfinal exit in a loaded ACC Tournament. After beating No. 13 Saint Louis, they faced No. 12 Liberty, which upset No. 5 Mississippi State in the first round. Virginia Tech entered the second weekend only playing double-digit seeds and then lost a tight battle with Duke in the Sweet 16.
Conclusions
There are a few strains of thought here. First, look at the seedings of all of these teams in comparison to where Michigan is currently projected. Most see the Wolverines as a No. 5 or No. 6 seed, proving how competitive college hoops is this year compared to the past. That doesn’t bode well for the long-term prospects of this team making a deep run without some upsets.
At the same time, these KenPom metrics in the past are complete, while there are still at least eight conference-level games to go for most teams across the country before even entering conference tournaments. Significant moves up or down are not only possible, but also likely.
Still, the trends of these programs are worrisome, particularly 2023 Purdue and 2021 Ohio State. Those two were the closest teams to where Michigan is today on KenPom, and both were upset due to turnovers. A first-round exit is the floor for the Wolverines, and it’s very possible given these past examples.
But there is also plenty of hope, as that Ohio State squad was not in the top-25 in both in ORtg and DRtg like Michigan is right now. Outside of that Purdue loss to Farleigh Dickinson, the other teams that held that standard made the Sweet 16. Virginia Tech was even three points away from making an Elite 8 run as a No. 4 seed in 2019. If a couple matchups go in the right direction, Michigan could have a direct line to the second week.
March Madness is great because of the chaos, and there is certainly plenty of that to be had. But based on the historical metrics of where teams similar to Michigan’s current KenPom ratings, it appears the ceiling this year is a Sweet 16 run, while an exit before winning a game is also in the cards. Anything beyond that on either side of the spectrum would be a bit of a surprise.