Selection Sunday is less than six weeks away! Here are where the experts predict the Michigan Wolverines to wind up being in the NCAA Tournament:
The calendar has turned to February, and believe it or not, there are less than six weeks until Selection Sunday. Dusty May’s Michigan Wolverines squad dropped two of their last five, including losses at Minnesota and Purdue, causing them to fall out of the AP Poll for one week.
Now re-established at No. 24 following an impressive road win at Rutgers , here are where the experts envision the Wolverines being seeded with just a few weeks remaining:
- ESPN’s Joe Lunardi – East Region: No. 6 Michigan vs. No. 11 Oklahoma
- On3’s James Fletcher – East Region: No. 7 Michigan vs. No. 10 West Virginia
- CBS Sport’s Jerry Palm – Midwest Region: No. 6 Michigan vs. No. 11 UC Irvine
- Fox Sport’s Mike Decourcy – Midwest Region: No. 6 Michigan vs. No. 11 UNC/Texas (play-in)
- SBNation’s Chris Dobbertean – South Region: No. 5 Michigan vs No. 12 George Mason
Of these projections, only Lunardi’s came before the weekend’s action, and only Dobbertean has Michigan as a five-seed.
Each of these hypothetical matchups are interesting. Lunardi’s game with Oklahoma would be a rematch of the Wolverines’ one-point loss to the Sooners at the Jumpman Invitational in mid-December. Speaking of Jumpman, Michigan could play UNC in Decourcy’s scenario, two programs that are very familiar with each other after playing each other five times in the last eight years. UC Irvine, which is 20-3, is also a fun one with German 7-foot-1 center Bent Leuchten matching up with Vlad Goldin.
Overall, most of the experts each have nine Big Ten programs currently in — Purdue, Michigan State , Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, UCLA, and Oregon. Meanwhile, Ohio State and Maryland sit favorably on the bubble, while Indiana, USC and Nebraska are on the outside looking in.
It appears in the two weeks since our last update, there has been a consensus drop for the Wolverines, sitting about a seed lower than they once were. The metrics reciprocate that ideology, but most are still big fans of Michigan:
- NET Rankings: No. 17 (last update: No. 12)
- KenPom: No. 20 (last update: No. 11)
- ESPN’s BPI: No. 25 (last update: No. 20)
- EvanMiya: No. 21 (last update: No. 12)
From the data’s perspective, the Wolverines should still at least be a No. 5 seed based on their season, with there being favorability towards a No. 4 seed.
The good news is they still have a top-25 strength of schedule remaining and have a huge week ahead of them. Each of their next three contests — vs Oregon, at Indiana, vs Purdue — come against teams who are at least in the conversation of being in the tournament. In fact each of their 10 remaining games are against Quad 2 opponents or better based on the current NET rankings.
How the Wolverines finish the regular season and in the conference tournament will determine how high they are ranked, and if they perform well, it could mean a much higher seeding than the current projections are suggesting.