The Michigan Wolverines slumped in many bracket predictions after three straight losses heading into the Big Ten Tournament. Here’s a look at where the experts have them playing:
A No. 1 seed in the Big Ten Tournament and much higher positioning was on the line a week ago for the Michigan Wolverines . Instead, they dropped two games against Maryland and Michigan State , and were sent spiraling down brackets for both this week’s conference tournament and the NCAA Tournament.
We’re now in do or die territory with only one guaranteed game left before the greatest tournament in sports begins. Michigan’s probable opponent, Purdue, would be a massive opportunity to gain some ground, but we are likely within a single seed of where the Wolverines will actually wind up on Selection Sunday.
Let’s take a look at what the experts are thinking prior to conference tournament play:
- ESPN’s Joe Lunardi – East Region: No. 6 Michigan vs. No. 11 VCU
- On3’s James Fletcher – South Region: No. 5 Michigan vs. No. 12 Liberty
- CBS Sport’s Jerry Palm – Midwest Region: No. 5 Michigan vs. No. 12 Liberty
- Fox Sport’s Mike Decourcy – No. 5 Michigan vs No. 12 Yale
- SBNation’s Chris Dobbertean – South Region: No. 5 Michigan vs No. 12 McNeese
It’s beginning to look like the Wolverines will be in one of the dreaded 5- or 6-seed spots. Last season, two No. 5 seeds lost to No. 12 seeds, and three No. 6 seeds fell to No. 11 seeds. These upsets have been on an upward trend over the last decade or so thanks to an increase in competition at the mid-major level.
The most interesting of these matchups is with Yale. The Bulldogs are the leaders in the Ivy League and have reached 20 wins this season. It’s also the former home of Danny Wolf, giving it the perfect March Madness bad juju scenario for the Wolverines.
Yale faced two Big Ten programs — Purdue and Minnesota — earlier in the season, losing both. However, Yale kept both within double-digits on the road, losing to the Gophers by only three points.
The metrics are also a little sobering, poising Michigan for a lower seed than currently projected.
- NET Rankings: No. 28 (Previously: No. 21)
- KenPom: No. 28 (Previously: No. 22)
- ESPN’s BPI: No. 33 (Previously: No. 27)
- EvanMiya: No. 33 (Previously: No. 25)
An early exit from the Big Ten Tournament would mean Michigan may cement itself on the No. 6 seed line. A win probably keeps it as a No. 5 seed, and an unlikely run in this week’s tournament could move it up to a No. 4 seed.
Right now, that feels far from reality given Michigan’s play over the past few weeks. But if the Wolverines are to better position themselves in the NCAA Tournament, they’ll need to win at least one game in the conference tournament.