Everyone thinks they know how the NCAA Tournament will play out until the first tip, and then all bets are off. Before the Round of 64 kicks off, we provide some bold predictions to think over before March Madness begins this afternoon:
No matter what school you went to, or what program you support, March Madness is an exciting time for all college basketball fans. This March should be more exciting than the last two years given the Michigan Wolverines are not just in the NCAA Tournament, but they are coming off a Big Ten Tournament championship.
But Michigan is just as susceptible as the other 63 teams to being outperformed on any given night, and it could be as early as Thursday night against UC San Diego. As everyone gets their brackets together, here are some bold predictions to think over before the first game tips off this afternoon.
Duke’s injuries could lead to a surprising exit
There is no question the Duke Blue Devils face the most pressure heading into March Madness. Coming off ACC championships in the regular season and the conference tournament, Duke enters the NCAA Tournament as a 1-seed for the 15th time ever.
However, not only is the Blue Devils’ path difficult, but they may not have the attrition to get into the later rounds of the tournament. Questions remain about whether projected top NBA Draft pick Cooper Flagg will be healthy enough to give his all as early as Friday’s game. Flagg is a unicorn in college basketball, averaging 18.9 points, 7.5 rebounds and 4.1 assists, and he has converted on a 48.8 percent clip throughout the season. A sprained ankle can heal quickly, or it can nag on, so it is unknown when Flagg will return to the court.
He isn’t the only one ailing. Forward Maliq Brown is also dealing with a shoulder injury, a key piece to Duke’s bench who brings versatility as a defender and an underrated passer, making him a valuable tool for head coach John Scheyer to use in key situations.
If either Flagg or Brown cannot play, the Blue Devils will throw out a very thin lineup, giving opponents the chance to force the upset with strong shooting and a little luck.
Michigan will face Yale in the Round of 32
Both Michigan and Texas A&M are going to be on upset watch, as UC San Diego and Yale present very unique styles of offense that could run a top program out of the building. While the Wolverines have been winning games against top competition as of late, the Aggies lost their first SEC Tournament game last Thursday to in-state rival Texas.
Texas A&M is a volatile program that can either beat top-seeded Auburn by double-digits, or lose five matchups to unranked teams. The key to its matchup against Yale will be the rate at which both teams can score. Texas A&M ranks 199th with 94.8 points scored per 100 possessions, and 28th defensively with 86.7 points conceded per 100 possessions. By the same metric, Yale ranks 13th with 105.8 points per 100 possessions on offense and 94th defensively by allowing 90.3 points per 100 possessions.
The level of competition is much different, but in the tournament, it’s best on best. If the Aggies go cold, Yale can be an easy underdog pick to move on after the first round.
The entire Big Ten is on upset alert
The Big Ten received a tough draw in the Round of 64, facing the likes of UC San Diego, Bryant, Grand Canyon, Montana, High Point, Texas/Xavier and Utah State. In all honesty, there would be little shock if any or all of those teams beat their Big Ten opponents.
The Big Ten was a solid conference in 2024-25, and Michigan State looked to be the most solid of them all. However, the Big Ten Tournament raised a lot of red flags for some of the best teams in the conference, as the Spartans fell before the Championship to Wisconsin, Purdue and Maryland lost to Michigan, and UCLA lost by 16 in its only tournament game.
Be careful when choosing the Big Ten to go far because the draw is not favorable to most.
The NCAA Tournament winner will not be a No. 1 seed
Between Duke’s injuries, the possibility of the Houston Cougars having to face a top-10 team based on analytics in the second round in Gonzaga, Auburn’s inconsistent play at the end of the season, and Florida’s heavy reliance on the three, many other teams could take the throne in 2025.
Winning in March is about making your shots and having depth. 2-seed Michigan State has proven it can do both, as seven players average seven points or more per game. The Spartans shoot better than 30 percent from behind the arc and 78 percent of their free throws.
2-seed Alabama is a little more risky, but the Crimson Tide rank No. 1 nationally this season with an average of 91.1 points per game, doing so in an efficient manner by also ranking No. 4 in KenPom’s offensive efficiency ratings, as well as No. 4 in the nation with a combined 59.7 percent two-point field goal percentage. Alabama also has five different players who are averaging double figures, and the Crimson Tide rank No. 1 nationally in rebounding, averaging 43.1 rebounds per game as a team.
Teams should also look out for 2-seed St. Johns, 3-seed Iowa State and 4-seed Arizona, all of which picked up key wins throughout the regular season and could benefit if a No. 1 seed were to get upset sooner than expected.
Without a clear, dominant force in college basketball this season, the tournament is wide open for the taking.