With the official start of practice next month, UMHoops and Inside the Hall have partnered to bring you our annual preseason breakdown of the top players in the Big Ten. This year, the list has been expanded after the addition of four programs to the conference.
The series is broken into seven parts with one post each weekday through Friday, August 30. Our final installment looking at players 1-5 for the 2024-25 season is available below:
Previously: 40-31 , 30-26 , 25-21 , 20-16 , 15-11 , 10-6
5. Jackson Shelstad, Oregon (6-foot, guard, sophomore)
2023-24 stats (32 games): 12.8 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 2.8 apg, 45% FG, 34.5% 3PFG in 32.6 mins
Why he could outperform this ranking: In an era where freshmen aren’t supposed to impact winning, especially freshman point guards, Jackson Shelstad led Oregon to the NCAA tournament as a freshman starting point guard.
Following in the footsteps of Payton Pritchard, another West Linn and Oregon great, Shelstad shot 52 percent on twos and 35 percent on threes as a freshman. The bread and butter of his game is the pull-up jumper, where he scored in the 71st percentile on 132 attempts, but he also finished at 63 percent around the rim.
Like Pritchard, he also has a penchant for hitting big shots in crucial moments. Dana Altman has assembled enough talent around him for Oregon to be a competitor at the top of the league.
Why he could underperform this ranking: Oregon has looked better on paper in the preseason than in March for the last few seasons. Injuries and bad luck have played a large part in that, but knowing what to expect from the Ducks as they move to the Big Ten is tough. There’s enough talent there to compete, but Dana Altman’s team has finished outside the KenPom top 40 for three consecutive seasons — coming off of a stretch of five top-30 finishes in six years. If Oregon is a contender, Shelstad will be in the mix for All-Big Ten honors, but if they struggle he could slide down this list.
4. Myles Rice, Indiana (6-foot-3, guard, redshirt sophomore)
2023-24 stats (35 games at Washington State): 14.8 ppg, 3.8 apg, 3.1 rpg, 1.6 spg, 43.9% FG, 27.5% 3PFG in 33.2 mins
Why he could outperform this ranking: Rice was one of the best stories in college basketball last season. After redshirting two seasons at Washington State – Rice fought and beat cancer during his second redshirt year – he made his debut as a third-year freshman and led the Cougars to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2008.
Rice is comfortable shooting from anywhere on the floor and shot better than 80 percent from the free throw line. That suggests his 3-point shooting numbers have room for growth and if that happens, he becomes one of the toughest covers in the league because he’s already solid in the midrange and excellent at the rim. While he was more of a score-first point guard than a past-first point guard at Washington State, that could change in Bloomington with teammates like Mackenzie Mgbako, Malik Reneau and Oumar Ballo.
Why he could underperform this ranking: The main concern with Rice is how poorly he shot it from the perimeter last season. His 3-point shooting numbers were hurt by a stretch that began in late February where he shot 0-for-22 from deep over a six-game stretch.
3. Dylan Harper, Rutgers (6-foot-6, guard, freshman)
Why he could outperform this ranking: Harper is a lefty guard who can play on or off the ball and should be an instant starter and primary option for Steve Pikiell. Pikiell’s teams are never known for their offense but are famous for leaning on one or two elite shot makers or scorers to carry the load on that end of the court. Harper will be that guy and the potential lottery pick has the talent to excel in that role.
Why he could underperform this ranking: Excelling in the Big Ten as a true freshman is hard, especially in the COVID era. Only three freshmen have made either the coaches or media All-Big Ten first team in the last decade: Hunter Dickinson in 2020-21 (media) along with D’Angelo Russell (both) and Melo Trimble (media) in 2014-15.
Harper has real upside, but the fact that he could have an awesome year, get picked in the first round of 2025 NBA draft and still end up lower on an end-of-year list.
2. Payton Sandfort, Iowa (6-foot-7, forward, senior)
2023-24 stats (34 games): 16.4 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 2.7 apg, 44.6% FG, 37.9% 3PFG in 30.5 mins
Why he could outperform this ranking: Sandfort is the best returning scoring wing in the league and with Tony Perkins moving on to Missouri via the transfer portal, the Hawkeyes will lean on him even more for offense.
Given his efficiency last season – he shot 55.1 percent on 2s and 37.9 percent on 3s – getting as many looks as possible for Sandfort is a solid plan for Fran McCaffery. After testing the NBA pre-draft process but struggling in the combine scrimmages, this season is an audition for Sandfort to earn an opportunity in the league.
Why he could underperform this ranking: For Sandfort to finish the season in the conversation for the Big Ten’s best player, he must exhibit more consistency. It took him some time last season to get going as he scored just 19 points total in Iowa’s first two conference games in early December. By season’s end, he was one of the league’s most consistent players. However, he also disappeared at times in crucial moments on an Iowa team that desperately needed his production to stay in the NCAA tournament conversation.
1. Braden Smith, Purdue (6-foot, guard, junior)
2023-24 stats (39 games): 12.0 ppg, 7.5 apg, 5.8 rpg, 1.6 spg, 44.1% FG, 43.1% 3PFG in 34 mins
Why he’s ranked here: Smith is the only All-Big Ten first-team selection who is back in the conference this season. He was also one of the best guards in the country as a sophomore and ran a team that reached the NCAA championship game.
It’s hard to find any fault in how Smith performed last season. He had the second-best assist rate in the Big Ten, was among the league’s best 3-point shooters and averaged nearly six rebounds as a guard. He had 10 games with 10 or more assists and scored in double figures 27 times.
Why he could underperform this ranking: How much did Smith benefit from playing with Zach Edey? The gravitational pull of Edey opened things up for the rest of the Purdue roster and Smith was a beneficiary.
Edey is gone and opposing defenses will now focus on Smith rather than the two-time national player of the year.
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