After a tough loss to Illinois, Michigan sits a game out of the Big Ten’s top spot with two games to go. Here are the Big Ten Tournament seeding scenarios for the Wolverines in the final week of the regular season:
Sunday’s loss to Illinois was a critical blow to the Michigan Wolverines ’ goal of gaining the No. 1 seed in the Big Ten Tournament starting next week. With the Michigan State Spartans pulling away late from the Wisconsin Badgers , the Wolverines’ rival now holds a one-game lead in the conference standings with only two regular season games remaining.
Depending how this week goes, Michigan can rank anywhere from the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament to the No. 4 seed.
Before we dive into all those scenarios, here is some context: Tiebreakers are determined by round robin, and then each team’s winning percentage against the team or teams who finished the next highest in the conference. For example, the No. 1 seed tie-breaker is determined by the team’s winning percentage against the team or teams that finished No. 3.
No. 1 seed – Scenario #1
- Michigan wins vs Maryland and at Michigan State
- Michigan State loses at Iowa and vs Michigan
This is pretty self-explanatory: If Michigan wins out this week and Michigan State drops its final two, Michigan will be in sole possession of first place in the Big Ten. With Michigan State beating Wisconsin on Sunday, there are no teams that can earn the No. 1 seed outside of Michigan and Michigan State.
No. 1 seed – Scenario #2
- Michigan wins vs Maryland and at Michigan State
- Michigan State wins at Iowa, loses to Michigan
- Purdue loses to either/both Rutgers and/or Illinois
- UCLA wins out
If Michigan and Michigan State share the Big Ten title after Michigan wins its final two games, the Wolverines will claim the No. 1 seed if UCLA wins out and Purdue drops one of its final two. This is because Michigan State’s loss to UCLA would even out Michigan’s loss to Purdue. But Michigan played Purdue twice and beat the Boilermakers the second time, so Michigan State is 1-1 against these two teams while Michigan is 2-1, giving the Wolverines a better winning percentage.
Any combination of a tie in the regular season rankings that includes Purdue and UCLA would benefit the Wolverines. That’s because Michigan and Michigan State would both finish 1-0 against Wisconsin and Maryland, negating any impact of them finishing above, tied or below the Boilermakers and Bruins.
No. 2 seed – Scenario #1
- Michigan beats either Maryland or Michigan State
As long as Michigan gets to 15 Big Ten wins, no other program can catch up.
No. 2 seed – Scenario #2
- Michigan wins vs Maryland and at Michigan State
- Michigan State wins at Iowa, loses to Michigan
- UCLA loses to either/both Northwestern and/or USC
- Purdue wins out
Wrapped up above, UCLA must win out for Michigan to have a chance at the top seed. However, if Purdue also wins out, Michigan would fall to the No. 2 seed.
No. 2 seed- Scenario #3
- Michigan loses to Maryland and Michigan State
- Maryland beats Michigan, loses to Northwestern
- Wisconsin wins out
If Michigan loses its final two games of the season, things get much more dicey. Luckily, there is a situation where the Wolverines still claim the No. 2 seed. Wisconsin would have to win out, which is certainly plausible, but the kicker is Maryland would need to lose to Northwestern.
This would create a tie for second place that includes both Michigan and Wisconsin, where the Wolverines hold the tiebreaker whether or not Purdue is included. Michigan beat Wisconsin straight up and round robin, Michigan is 2-1 against these two teams, so it would earn the No. 2 seed while Wisconsin would be No. 3 and Purdue would be No. 4. Maryland would have only 13 Big Ten wins and would fall behind these three teams.
No. 2 seed- Scenario #4
- Michigan loses to Maryland and Michigan State
- Maryland beats Michigan, loses to Northwestern
- Purdue loses to either/both Rutgers and/or Illinois
Here, Michigan at least earned a share of second place in the Big Ten, with Wisconsin being the only other team that could tie with 14 wins. The Wolverines hold the tiebreaker over the Badgers head-to-head.
No. 3 seed – Scenario #1
- Michigan loses to Maryland and Michigan State
- Maryland wins out
- Purdue loses to either/both Rutgers and/or Illinois
Here, we’re falling back into the “Purdue can’t be included” crowd. With a Boliermaker loss, Michigan finishes tied for second in the Big Ten with at least Maryland and possibly Wisconsin. Maryland holds the tiebreaker and gets the No. 2 seed, while Michigan falls to No. 3, still commanding a spot over Wisconsin.
No. 3 seed – Scenario #2
- Michigan loses to Maryland and Michigan State
- Maryland beats Michigan, loses to Northwestern
- Wisconsin loses to either/both Minnesota and/or Penn State
- Purdue wins out
The Wolverines’ losses to Maryland and Illinois down the stretch would haunt them, giving the Boilermakers the advantage in every possibility of teams included in a tiebreaker. If the Wolverines find themselves tied with either Maryland or Purdue, and Wisconsin is not involved, they’ll fall to the No. 3 seed or lower.
No. 4 seed – Scenario #1
- Michigan loses to Maryland and Michigan State
- Maryland wins out
- Purdue wins out
Again, if Michigan finds itself tied with both Maryland and Purdue at 14 Big Ten wins, it will fall to the No. 4 seed whether or not Wisconsin is involved in a potential tie for second place.
Michigan is guaranteed a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament, a massive win for its chances of winning the tournament title. But depending on circumstances, it could lose tiebreakers due to losses (or potential losses) to Purdue and Maryland.
Meanwhile, the Wolverines bank on wins over UCLA and Wisconsin to keep them atop some of their competition. Michigan faithful should be rooting for UCLA and Wisconsin this week while hoping for losses from Purdue and Maryland.