Big Ten Tournament: Game-by-game predictions

The appetizer for March Madness is officially upon us with the 2025 Big Ten Men’s Basketball Tournament. Here are our game-by-game predictions of how this week will play out in Indianapolis:

We’ve reached the end of the regular season in the Big Ten, which means it’s time for conference tournament play to commence in Indianapolis. This week, the top 14 programs will converge at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in our appetizer for March Madness.

At this stage of the game, we’ve gotten a good sense of each team’s identity, but as we all know, anything can happen in March. Today, we’ll be going game-by-game through this week’s schedule to determine who will cut down the nets on Sunday afternoon.

Before we get into the predictions, here’s a visual representation of the bracket:

Game 1 – (13) Northwestern vs. (12) Minnesota

Wednesday, March 12, 3:30 p.m. ET, Peacock

Both teams enter this game off consecutive losses, but Northwestern got the win in the lone matchup between these teams this year. We’ll give a slight edge to Northwestern in the rematch, with the benefit given to the Wildcat offense led by Nick Martinelli’s 20.2 points per game.

Prediction: Northwestern wins

Game 2 – (15) Iowa vs. (10) Ohio State

Wednesday, March 12, 25 minutes after Game 1, Peacock

Iowa comes into this matchup as the hotter team after winning its season finale against Nebraska and playing Michigan State close. But Ohio State has been better than its 17-14 record would suggest, as the No. 34 team on KenPom has been on the wrong side of several close games. Advantage this time around: Buckeyes.

Prediction: Ohio State wins

Game 3 – (14) USC vs. (11) Rutgers

Wednesday, March 12, 25 minutes after Game 2, Peacock

Both these teams are highly productive on the offensive end and just the opposite on the defensive end. USC enters the game ice cold having lost six of its last seven games. Star power plays in March, so that’s why we’ll go with Dylan Harper, Ace Bailey and Rutgers in this one.

Prediction: Rutgers wins

Game 4 – (9) Indiana vs. (8) Oregon

Thursday, March 13, Noon ET, BTN

Indiana has won four of its last five games thanks to its defense, but that lone loss was to Oregon last week. The Hoosiers are right on the bubble and could use a win to pad the resume. Oregon’s duo of Jackson Shelstad and Nathan Bittle will be too much, though, and the Ducks should fly into the quarterfinals.

Prediction: Oregon wins

Game 5 – (13) Northwestern vs. (5) Wisconsin

Thursday, March 13, 25 minutes after Game 4, BTN

The Badgers have been one of the hottest teams in the country the last two weeks, with their offense taking a big step forward and currently ranked No. 11 nationally by KenPom. Two late-season losses to Michigan State and Penn State are concerning, but it shouldn’t affect them here.

Prediction: Wisconsin wins

Game 6 – (10) Ohio State vs. (7) Illinois

Thursday, March 13, 6:30 p.m. ET, BTN

Illinois being a No. 7 seed is bad news for the rest of the conference, as Illinois enters the week hot having won three straight games, including wins over Michigan and Purdue. Illinois is getting healthy at the right time and can fill it up from deep, which bodes well for March success.

Prediction: Illinois wins

Game 7 – (11) Rutgers vs. (6) Purdue

Thursday, March 13, 25 minutes after Game 6, BTN

After looking unbeatable early in the year, Purdue has crashed back down to earth in the second half of the season. However, the Boilermakers did hang 100 on Rutgers last week, with Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith both taking over the game. Purdue might not hit triple digits again, but it’ll get the job done.

Prediction: Purdue wins

Game 8 – (8) Oregon vs. (1) Michigan State

Friday, March 14, Noon ET, BTN

Michigan State is a legitimate national title contender, winning its last seven games thanks to one of the nation’s best defenses. Oregon gave the Spartans a good fight back in early February, but Jackson Shelstad’s 22 points weren’t enough. If Nate Bittle has a better game than he did back then, Oregon has a chance, but it’s tough to bet against Michigan State right now.

Prediction: Michigan State wins

Game 9 – (5) Wisconsin vs. (4) UCLA

Friday, March 14, 25 minutes after Game 8, BTN

The Wisconsin offense and UCLA defense will be a good matchup, as these two played a tight game back in January. UCLA got the edge back then in Los Angeles, and has won three of its last four games. This one could go either way, and Wisconsin’s loss to Penn State is worrisome, but the Badgers will prevail here.

Prediction: Wisconsin wins

Game 10 – (7) Illinois vs. (2) Maryland

Friday, March 14, 6:30 p.m. ET, BTN

Maryland won by 21 the last time these two squared off, but Will Riley played only 17 minutes, while Tomislav Ivisic didn’t play at all. With bigger roles for each of them in this rematch, this game should be much closer. In a game like this, it’s hard to pick against a team that can score in bunches and enters the tournament hot, so we’ll go with Illinois to avenge its earlier loss.

Prediction: Illinois wins

Game 11 – (6) Purdue vs. (3) Michigan

Friday, March 14, 25 minutes after Game 10, BTN

It’s been a highly disappointing end to the season for Michigan, entering the week having lost three straight. Purdue isn’t exactly the opponent you “get right” against either. It’s hard to find a reason Michigan should win this one thanks to its lackluster shooting and carelessness with the ball. Although Michigan won its most recent matchup against Purdue, it’s hard to ignore its blowout loss from mid-January and its overall recent play.

Prediction: Purdue wins

Game 12 (Semifinal 1) – (5) Wisconsin vs. (1) Michigan State

Saturday, March 15, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Wisconsin and Michigan State played a close game in East Lansing just two weeks ago with the Spartans coming out on top. It was a poor day shooting for both teams, but particularly for Wisconsin which went just 33.8 percent from the floor and 15.6 percent from deep. I wouldn’t bank on John Tonje and the Badgers repeating that effort, but the Spartans are simply too hot right now.

Prediction: Michigan State wins

Game 13 (Semifinal 2) – (7) Illinois vs. (6) Purdue

Saturday, March 15, 25 minutes after Game 12, CBS

This would represent the second time in eight days these two play each other, with Illinois coming out on top, 88-80, at home the first time. Both these teams can put a lot of points on the board, but Illinois has an edge on the defensive end as KenPom’s No. 30 ranked team, compared to Purdue’s No. 52. Trey Kaufman-Renn gave the Boilermakers 29 points in the first meeting, but I’m not confident he’ll repeat that mark, while Illinois stays red hot.

Prediction: Illinois wins

Game 14 (Championship)

Sunday March 16, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS

The Spartans won the first matchup between these teams back in mid-February with Tre White out of the lineup for Illinois. The Spartans hung 79 points despite Jase Richardson, Jaden Akins and Jeremy Fears being relatively unproductive on the offensive end, combining for 23 points. It’s safe to bank on that trio being better this time around, but the return of White for Illinois could be meaningful as well. This will be closer than the 14-point margin from the first meeting, but the Spartans will roll into the NCAA Tournament as Big Ten Tournament champions.

Prediction: Michigan State wins