Week 10 was our best week yet on Betting the Big Ten. Here’s who we like in each conference matchup for Week 11:
Week 10 was our best week yet on Betting the Big Ten. An offensive explosion out of the Iowa Hawkeyes was all that prevented us from a perfect week. We hit on the spread in every game and hit the over in the Michigan-Oregon matchup as well.
In total it was a 7-1 week. On the season, we now sit at 57-37-3. That is a torrid pace in the sports betting world.
Week 11 doesn’t have a ton of closely projected games on the docket, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t bets to be won. Michigan will look to spoil Indiana’s magical run while Penn State will look to rebound against Washington.
As always, please bet responsibly.
Iowa (-5) at UCLA, O/U 45, 9 p.m. Friday
Both teams have been above average against the spread (ATS) this season, with Iowa at 5-4 and UCLA at 5-3. On the total, the Hawkeyes are a whopping 8-1 at hitting the over while UCLA is 3-5. I’m torn between Iowa laying the points and the over here. I’ll ride with the over, as Iowa has hit the over in four consecutive games, and UCLA has hit the over in its past two as well.
The pick: Over 45
Purdue at Ohio State (-38), O/U 53.5, Noon Saturday
According to The Action Network, 92 percent of all bets have come in on Purdue here, but that’s only dropped the spread from 38.5 down to 38. The Boilermakers have been abysmal ATS (2-6 this year). However, Ohio State is only 4-4 ATS. On the total, both teams are in the middle of the pack. In expected blowouts like this, I tend to look more closely at the total of the favored team. Ohio State has gone under in four of its last five, so I’ll go with the under. Being fully transparent however, this is the game I’m the least confident in this week.
The pick: Under 53.5
Minnesota (-6) at Rutgers, O/U 46.5, Noon
The spread here has shifted from Minnesota -4 up to Minnesota -6 in the last week. A part of that was likely the Golden Gophers’ convincing win at Illinois last week. Minnesota remains a scorching 7-1-1 ATS this year and have covered in each of its last five matchups. Rutgers , on the other hand, has failed to cover in its last three contests. Give me Minnesota while it’s still under a touchdown.
The pick: Minnesota -6
Michigan at Indiana (-14.5), O/U 49.5, 3:30 p.m.
Sadly, the spread has shifted from 11.5 all the way up to 14.5 over the course of this week, with 76 percent of all bets coming in on the Hoosiers. Michigan has been an abysmal 2-7 ATS this season while Indiana is 8-1 ATS and has covered in five consecutive games. I’d feel better at 13.5 instead of 14.5, but there’s too much data to ignore here.
The pick: Indiana -14.5
Maryland at Oregon (-25), O/U 57.5, 7 p.m.
Interestingly, this spread has actually shifted towards Maryland modestly throughout the week for no discernible reason. Maryland is a whopping 7-1 at hitting the over this year, but 57.5 feels high anecdotally, especially given the injuries Oregon sustained last week in Ann Arbor. While both teams are middling ATS, Maryland is 1-4 ATS in recent weeks while Oregon has covered in four straight. That seems like a solid trend.
The pick: Oregon -25
Washington at Penn State (-13.5), O/U 46, 8 p.m.
In what could be the most interesting Big Ten game of the week, Penn State will look to rebound following an extremely disappointing showing against Ohio State. The spread has bounced around the two-touchdown mark all week. However, both teams are average ATS — Washington is 4-5 and Penn State is 3-5. The stronger trend is on the under. Washington is 2-7 against the total while Penn State is 2-6 and, more importantly, just 1-4 at home. Add in the fact it’s a night game and this game looks primed for a defensive struggle.