Illinois attempts to pick up its second ranked win in a row as the Illini travel to face Oregon. See who we like in that one and all the other conference matchups on Betting the Big Ten this week:
Week 8 featured a slew of road favorites that we tended to bet against. We were rewarded with underdogs covering all over the place. Namely, Michigan State, Maryland, and Illinois all covered as home dogs. In total we went a scorching 5-2 on the week, bringing our season total up to 45-33-3. Let’s keep it rolling.
Week 9 returns to normalcy with primarily home favorites. There are a handful of entertaining games, with one ranked matchup on the docket in Eugene.
As always, please bet responsibly.
Rutgers at USC (-14), O/U 56.5, 11 p.m. Friday
Both of these teams are middling against the spread and against the total. Given USC’s struggles this year, I’m a bit surprised this spread is as large as 14. A big portion of that could be due to the hideous start time and amount of traveling that Rutgers has to do. An 11 p.m. EST kickoff is brutal. Add that to the fact that the Trojans are 3-0 ATS at home this season and I feel good taking USC despite the large spread here.
The pick: USC -14
Nebraska at Ohio State (-25.5), O/U 48.5, Noon Saturday
Before Nebraska’s evisceration at the hands of Indiana last week, this game was at Ohio State -21. Apparently, seeing the Cornhuskers embarrassed shifted the line quite a bit. The Buckeyes have had a week to stew on their defeat to Oregon. While 25.5 is too many points for me to lay, I like the Ohio State offense to put points on the board early and often. At home, Ohio State is 3-1 at hitting the total so I’ll ride with that trend.
The pick: Over 48.5
Washington at Indiana (-6.5), O/U 53.5, Noon
News of Kurtis Rourke’s surgery on his thumb shifted this spread for 10.5 down to 6.5. Tayven Jackson now steps in for a few weeks. Michigan fans may remember Jackson looking pretty bad last year against the Wolverines, but he has developed nicely between then and now. The Hoosiers have been excellent at covering the spread (6-1) and I don’t believe that was solely because of Rourke.
The pick: Indiana -6.5
Illinois at Oregon (-21), O/U 54.5, 3:30 p.m.
From a numbers standpoint, Illinois has been much better ATS than Oregon has as the Fighting Illini are 5-2 ATS while Oregon is 3-4. However, it felt like Illinois treated last weekend’s matchup with Michigan as their Super Bowl. This has all the feelings of a hangover game for Illinois. Add in the fact that Illinois has to travel half way across the country to play in front of a raucous crowd at Autzen and I like this matchup for the Ducks.
The pick: Oregon -21
Northwestern at Iowa (-14), O/U 37.5, 3:30 p.m.
Don’t look now, but Iowa is 6-1 at hitting the over this season. The only game they’ve been a part of that went under was their loss to Ohio State, in which they missed by just 3.5 points. Northwestern, while very much not a good football team, is 4-3 at hitting the over. I don’t love the spread here so I’ll stick with the over.
The pick: Over 37.5
Maryland at Minnesota (-4.5), O/U 46.5, 3:30 p.m.
This spread has shifted from Minnesota -1 to -4.5 over the course of the week and I’m not sure why. According to The Action Network, 69 percent of all bets are coming in on Minnesota, which is a driving factor of course. Maryland is a tough team to figure out. In the past two weeks they’ve been blown out by Northwestern before beating USC. However, at the end of the day Minnesota is 5-1-1 ATS while Maryland is just 3-4.
The pick: Minnesota -4.5
Penn State (-6.5) at Wisconsin, O/U 48, 7:30 p.m.
Penn State started the week at -8. That spread has shifted down to 6.5. Ordinarily, I’d say that I love being able to get a favorite at just under a touchdown; however, there’s something fishy going on here. Per The Action Network, 85 percent of all bets are on Penn State. If everyone is taking the Nittany Lions yet the spread is shifting noticeably towards Wisconsin, that leads me to believe there’s big money on the Badgers. Vegas knows something. Give me Wisconsin.
The pick: Wisconsin +6.5
Michigan State at Michigan (-3.5), O/U 40, 7:30 p.m.
If you asked most Michigan fans, they’d tell you that this spread opening at Michigan -9 was an utter joke given the way the Wolverine offense has looked. I hope you were one of the lucky few to bet Michigan State with a large amount of points on the way down. The spread has now settled all the way down at -3.5 where it will likely stay. While I would have loved to take Michigan State +7.5 or something in that ballpark, I wouldn’t touch Michigan as a favorite with a ten-foot pole.