The Week 4 Big Ten slate features multiple matchups between ranked teams. Let’s make our picks in this week’s Betting the Big Ten:
In Week 3, we got back in the win column with a 6-4 week on Betting the Big Ten. Notably, we took a risk and bet on the Iowa over, and it hit. Elsewhere, Notre Dame and Indiana rolled while Michigan vs. Arkansas State stayed under the total.
Week 4 has some fascinating matchups. As always, please bet responsibly.
Illinois at Nebraska (-8), O/U 43, 8 p.m. Friday
Both Illinois and Nebraska are undefeated through three games. Even more surprisingly, both are ranked. While I like Dylan Raiola and Nebraska to win the game, I don’t love laying eight points. What I do love is the trend of unders we’ve been seeing. Both teams have hit the under in each of their three games. On top of that, in the last three years, these two teams have hit the under more often than not when playing head-to-head.
The pick: Under 43
Marshall at Ohio State (-40), O/U 52, Noon Saturday
Make no mistake about it, this game will not be close. However, I think there’s some value on Marshall here. The Thundering Herd are 2-0 against the spread and looked scrappy against Virginia Tech two weeks ago. While Ohio State should certainly roll here, I’m not comfortable enough to lay 40 points.
The pick: Marshall +40
Charlotte at Indiana (-28.5), O/U 49, Noon
Following Indiana’s victory over UCLA last weekend, this line has shifted massively towards the Hoosiers. Is IU legit or is it only a mirage? Time will tell. For now, I would have loved Indiana if the spread was less than four touchdowns — 28.5 makes me nervous so I’ll take the over as both teams are 2-1 respectively at hitting the over.
The pick: Over 49
Villanova at Maryland, Noon
No lines available
Kent State at Penn State (-49), O/U 56, 3:30 p.m.
Fresh off a bludgeoning at the hands of the Tennessee Volunteers , Kent State finds itself in a perilous spot. It was blown out by Pitt, lost outright as a 17.5-point favorite against St. Francis, and then got obliterated by Tennessee. The flashes might be the worst team in the country; 49 is a ton of points to lay, but until I see signs of life from the Golden Flashes, I have to take Penn State.
The pick: Penn State -49
USC (-5.5) at Michigan, O/U 44, 3:30 p.m.
Two weeks ago, the spread for this game was Michigan -8.5. How the times have changed. Now, even 5.5 points towards USC feels small with 62 percent of the bets coming in on the Trojans, according to The Action Network. USC is 2-0 against the spread while Michigan is unsurprisingly 0-3. I love to follow a good trend.
The pick: USC -5.5
UCLA at LSU (-24), O/U 56, 3:30 p.m.
This is the toughest game of the week for me to wrap my head around. UCLA has looked wretched so far this season with a narrow escape in Hawaii and a blowout loss at home against Indiana. LSU , on the other hand, picked up a nice win in South Carolina last weekend following the surprising loss to USC in Week 1. There are no real trends to monitor here, so I’ll stick with my gut here.
The pick: LSU -24
Rutgers at Virginia Tech (-3.5), O/U 44.5, 3:30 p.m.
This spread has narrowed as the week has gone on despite 77 percent of all bets being on Virginia Tech. This tells me there’s big money on Rutgers here. With the Hokies only being 1-2 ATS, I really like Rutgers to cover and potentially win outright.
The pick: Rutgers +3.5
Northwestern at Washington (-10.5), O/U 43, 7 p.m.
Both these teams have been less than stellar at covering the spread, so I’m looking mainly at the total. Northwestern’s offense has been quite terrible while Washington’s has been mediocre at best. While I certainly wish the total was higher than 43, I have to stick with the under here.
The pick: Under 43
Iowa (-2.5) at Minnesota, O/U 35.5, 7:30 p.m.
Don’t look now, but Iowa is 3-0 at hitting the over in 2024. While Minnesota is just 1-2 in that department, it hasn’t exactly been because of stellar defensive play. Given Iowa’s sudden surge of offense, I’m inclined to tempt fate and go with the over again.
The pick: Over 35.5
Michigan State at Boston College (-7), O/U 45.5, 8 p.m.
This should be a fascinating litmus test for Michigan State . Sitting at 3-0, the Spartans have two wins against overmatched opponents and a quality win over an unknown Maryland squad. Boston College had a dominating win over Florida State in Week 1, but suffered its first defeat in a tight game at Missouri last weekend. Frankly, I’m a little surprised BC is favored by a full touchdown. I think this game will be tight throughout.
The pick: Michigan State +7
Purdue at Oregon State (-5.5), O/U 50, 8:30 p.m.
I’m of the opinion Purdue is the worst Power Two (?) school this season, as the Boilermakers appeared lifeless in a blowout loss to Notre Dame last week. Oregon State may not be that much better, but I expected this spread to be significantly larger. Give me the Beavers.