Our hot streak continued on Betting the Big Ten last week. With a top five matchup on the docket this week, see who we like in each matchup here:
We’re starting to get good at this. We had another great week on Betting the Big Ten with a 5-3 record. Our misses occurred in the biggest games, as Michigan State failed to cover, and Ohio State vs. Nebraska didn’t even sniff the over. Virtually everywhere else, we hit.
On the season we now sit at 50-36-3. Let the good times roll.
Week 10 features a top-five clash in Happy Valley as Penn State hosts Ohio State in one of the biggest conference games of the season. Elsewhere, Michigan hosts the No. 1 ranked Oregon Ducks .
As always, please bet responsibly.
Ohio State (-3.5) at Penn State, O/U 45, Noon
The spread here started at 3.5, shifted towards Ohio State, then settled back down to 3.5 again. Head-to-head, Ohio State has absolutely owned Penn State on the moneyline, but is actually just 2-3 ATS despite being favored in at least the last five contests. However, this is the closest the spread has been in this matchup in quite some time. With all that said, the stat that sticks out to me is Penn State being just 1-3 at home this year ATS. Throw in some doubt as to whether Drew Allar will play, and I have to go with the Buckeyes here.
The pick: Ohio State -3.5
Minnesota (-3) at Illinois, O/U 45.5, Noon
Minnesota being favored on the road against a ranked Illinois team is stunning to me. Most importantly, this game has crossed the bridge, as Illinois was favored as recently as Sunday. Don’t ask me why, but Vegas knows something here. The Golden Gophers are also a shocking 6-1-1 ATS this year. This is more than enough reason to take Minnesota in this spot.
The pick: Minnesota -3
Northwestern (-1) at Purdue, O/U 46.5, Noon
If you’ve been reading Betting the Big Ten for any length of time, you know what my favorite trend to bet is: taking the favorite in games that cross the bridge. On Sunday, Purdue was favored by 1.5. Today, Northwestern is all the way up to a one point favorite thanks to 73 percent of bets coming in on the Wildcats, according to The Action Network. I certainly don’t love either of these basement-dwelling Big Ten teams, but crossing the bridge is good enough reason for me to bet Northwestern here.
The pick: Northwestern -1
Oregon (-15) at Michigan, O/U 45, 3:30 p.m.
Against the spread, Oregon is a middling 4-4 this year while Michigan is 2-6. I certainly don’t like Michigan to cover here as even in a win over Michigan State last week, the offense didn’t inspire enough confidence moving forward. However, 91 percent of all bets have come in on Oregon, but the spread has barely budged. I’m scared away by a line of 15, so I’ll focus on the total. Michigan has been prone to brutal busts in the secondary while Kalel Mullings should be able to move modestly on the ground. Give me the over.
The pick: Over 45
Indiana (-7.5) at Michigan State, O/U 51.5, 3:30 p.m.
Indiana at 6.5 would have easily been my pick, but 7.5 gives me some pause. Three of the last four head-to-head matchups between these two programs hit the under. However, this is not the same Indiana team we have seen the last four years. The Hoosiers are 7-1 ATS which is, quite frankly, too strong a trend to ignore.
The pick: Indiana -7.5
UCLA at Nebraska (-6.5), O/U 40, 3:30 p.m.
The spread started at Nebraska -11 and has crawled all the way down to 6.5, despite 94 percent of all bets being on Nebraska. This tells me there is big money on UCLA for some odd reason. While my heart loves that I could get Nebraska for less than a touchdown here, all the signs are telling my brain that I should go UCLA here.
The pick: UCLA +6.5
Wisconsin at Iowa (-3), O/U 40.5, 7:30 p.m.
Wisconsin has probably been the Big Ten team I’ve been incorrect on the most this season. I just can’t get a good read on the Badgers. Iowa, on the other hand, has been a juggernaut offensively despite inconsistent at best quarterback play. With Cade McNamara benched — and injured yet again — I like the under here. Head-to-head, these two teams have gone under in three of the last four.
The pick: Under 40.5
USC (-3) at Washington, O/U 55.5, 7:30 p.m.
When looking at this game, I ignored the head-to-head historical matchups considering this is a vastly different Washington team than even a year ago. Looking at 2024, USC is 5-3 ATS while Washington is 3-5. However, USC is 0-3 ATS on the road and Washington is 3-1 ATS at home. That’s all the data I need.