On Michigan’s second bye week, we examined the rest of the Big Ten slate to see who we like and don’t like. Despite no ranked matchups, there’s a few oddities to hit on in Week 12:
A down week was bound to happen at some point as our winning record in the past few weeks was unsustainable. Michigan somewhat shockingly covered while Oregon and Minnesota failed to do so. We also missed on the Iowa vs. UCLA over as the Bruins defense slowed down Iowa’s rushing attack. On the positive side, we hit two unders correctly in Washington vs. Penn State and Purdue vs. Ohio State .
In total, it was a 2-4 week. On the season, we now sit at 59-41-3. We are still well above .500 and will look to get back into the win column this week.
Week 12 doesn’t have any high-profile games, but it does contain several matchups with small spreads. It should be another exciting week of college football.
As always, please bet responsibly.
UCLA at Washington (-3), O/U 46.5, 9 p.m. Friday
The line here has crawled slowly towards UCLA. It started the week at Washington -5 and is now down to -3. According to The Action Network, 87% of all bets are on Washington which implies that big money is on the Bruins. In the last two head-to-head matchups between these programs (in the Pac-12), Washington was favored in both by less than three points but UCLA won both outright. That’s a trend I like to follow.
The pick: UCLA +3
Ohio State (-28.5) at Northwestern, O/U 44, Noon Saturday
This game is being played at a “neutral site” at Wrigley Field in Chicago. I still expect to see more Buckeye fans there despite Northwestern’s campus being right down the road in Evanston. While Ohio State dominates this matchup historically, Northwestern has been feisty of late. Just last year Ohio State was favored by 37.5 but only won by 14. I certainly don’t expect the Wildcats to win this game outright or even be competitive, but more than four touchdowns seem like a decent amount of points to take in an abnormal environment.
The pick: Northwestern +28.5
Michigan State at Illinois (-3), O/U 47.5, 2:30 p.m.
There aren’t a whole lot of trends to go on in this matchup. Both teams are middling against the spread as Michigan State is 4-5 and Illinois is 5-4. On the total, Illinois almost always goes under but the Spartans have hit the over in three consecutive games. Similar to the UCLA vs. Washington game, I’m making this pick based on where the perceived big money is. Per the Action Network, 94% of all bets are on Illinois yet the spread hasn’t budged one inch. Give me the Spartans.
The pick: Michigan State +3
Penn State (-28.5) at Purdue, O/U 51, 3:30 p.m.
I’ve been banging the drum all season saying that Purdue is the worst team in the Big Ten this year. I’ve been right almost every week on the Boilermakers. Purdue is a putrid 2-7 ATS this season. Against fellow top-five teams Oregon and Ohio State, Purdue failed to cover spreads of 30.5 and 37.5 respectively. I don’t see why that would change against a loaded Penn State team.
The pick: Penn State -28.5
Nebraska at USC (-8.5), O/U 50.5, 4 p.m.
Nebraska’s dream season has come crashing down in a hurry with losses in three straight weeks. USC hasn’t done much better as they now sit at 4-5 overall and have decided to bench Miller Moss. Both teams are middling against the spread and there hasn’t been any major movement in the line so I’m looking more at the total here. USC is 5-4 at hitting the over and has done so in three of the last four weeks. While the Cornhuskers are a much worse 3-6 at hitting the over, they have hit the over in two of the past three weeks. I’m looking for USC’s backup QB to inject some life into this offense.
The pick: Over 50.5
Rutgers at Maryland (-5.5), O/U 51, 6 p.m.
The line here has shifted throughout the week from Maryland -3 all the way up to 5.5. However, both teams are pretty mediocre ATS as Rutgers is 4-4-1 while Maryland is 4-5. Head-to-head, Maryland has won four of the last five but the spreads have varied widely and there are no discernable trends with the over/under. Looking just at this season, the Terrapins are 7-2 at hitting the over while Rutgers is still a respectable 5-4. 51 points doesn’t seem too out of hand so I’ll take the over.
The pick: Over 51
Oregon (-14) at Wisconsin, O/U 52, 7:30 p.m.
Unlike the Kohl Center in basketball, Camp Randall isn’t actually that difficult to play in. Wisconsin fans are certainly rowdy but it hasn’t been a place of horrors for visiting teams in quite some time. I’m actually a bit surprised that the spread here is only 14. While Oregon is just 5-5 ATS, a good portion of that can be attributed to a slow start to the season. In the last five weeks, the Ducks have gone 4-1 ATS with last week being the only failure (in which they missed covering by 2.5 points). Wisconsin is just 1-4 ATS at home this season so I feel pretty good in taking Oregon here.
The pick: Oregon -14