Indiana will look to shock the world and cement its place in the College Football Playoff this weekend in Columbus. Here are the teams we like in every Big Ten game this weekend:
We took some chances in Week 12 and were not rewarded as most of the underdogs failed to cover. On the bright side, Northwestern was able to cover against Ohio State and Penn State covered a massive spread with ease.
All in, it was a 2-5 week. Despite back-to-back rough weeks, we’re still at 61-46-3 on the season. Not too shabby.
Week 13 holds arguably the biggest game of the Big Ten season that no one saw coming before the season started. Elsewhere, Wisconsin and Nebraska battle for bowl eligibility, while Purdue has likely its last chance to pick up a win this year.
As always, please bet responsibly.
Purdue at Michigan State (-13.5), O/U 47.5, 8 p.m. Friday
By all accounts Purdue has had a dreadful season. With Michigan State on the docket before facing off with rival Indiana, this is likely the Boilermakers’ best chance at picking up a conference win in 2024. Both of these teams are dreadful ATS — Purdue is 2-8 and Michigan State is 4-6. Their results against the total are middling at best as well for both teams. It seems like the smart money move is on Purdue here, as crazy as that is to say.
The pick: Purdue +13.5
Indiana at Ohio State (-13), O/U 51.5, Noon Saturday
Indiana’s season of a lifetime faces it’s toughest test yet. The spread opened the week at Ohio State -9.5 but has jumped all the way out to 13, despite 74 percent of bets coming in on Indiana, according to The Action Network. This implies there is some huge money on the Buckeyes. The combination of the big money factor, an emotional hedge, and the fact Michigan may have exposed some of Indiana’s deficiencies two weeks ago makes me terrified to pull the trigger on Indiana here. I’m rooting for a Hoosier victory, but the data seems to imply it’s doubtful (but not impossible).
The pick: Ohio State -13
Illinois (-1) at Rutgers, O/U 48, Noon
This game features my favorite betting tactic of all time — the spread has crossed the bridge. Earlier this week, Rutgers was favored by two points. The Fighting Illini have been okay ATS this season (6-4) and are coming off a big win over Michigan State. Give me Illinois.
The pick: Illinois -1
Iowa (-6) at Maryland, O/U 46, Noon
This spread has been fascinating to monitor. Iowa started the week as 9.5-point favorites. It then immediately shot down to 5.5, but has since settled at six. Both teams are middling ATS, and six points feels about right, so I’m not confident in the spread either way. On the total, both teams have been excellent at hitting the over — Iowa is 8-2 while Maryland is 7-3. Let’s roll with the trend in this one.
The pick: Over 46
Northwestern at Michigan (-10), O/U 36.5, 3:30 p.m.
At the beginning of the week, Michigan was favored by 13.5. That has shifted all the way down to 10 thanks to 82 percent of all bets being on the Wildcats. However, neither of these teams are any good at covering the spread, as Northwestern is 4-6 and Michigan is 3-7. I’m much more comfortable looking at the hideously low 36.5-point total. Both the Wildcats and Wolverines are above .500 at hitting the over and have hit the over in two of their last three matchups respectively.
The pick: Over 36.5
Penn State (-11.5) at Minnesota, O/U 45, 3:30 p.m.
This spread has shifted towards Minnesota throughout the week, which could lead to some value for Penn State bettors. However, I’m more focused on the under. Penn State has gone under the total seven times this season, while Minnesota has hit the under six times. Additionally, the under has hit in three of the last four Penn State games. For the Golden Gophers, the under has hit in four of the last five.
The pick: Under 45
Wisconsin at Nebraska (-2.5), O/U 42.5, 3:30 p.m.
Similar to the Illinois vs. Rutgers matchup, this spread has crossed the bridge. As recently as Sunday, Wisconsin was favored. Now Nebraska has taken the momentum with no end in sight. Jump on the bandwagon now before the spread gets even wider.
The pick: Nebraska -2.5
USC (-5) at UCLA, O/U 51.5, 10:30 p.m.
UCLA appeared to be the doormat of the Big Ten at the early stages of the season. However, the Bruins have turned it around a bit and are now 4-6. USC is getting most of the action here, but the spread is sliding towards UCLA as the week goes on. My favorite stat in this matchup is USC is 0-4 ATS on the road, while UCLA is 6-3 ATS as an underdog. Put it all together and I love the Bruins here.