With so many options, which five players should Michigan head coach Dusty May have on the court in late-game situations? We take a look at the advanced data to find out:
Through 36 games, we have a lot of data on which five-man lineups are most effective for the Michigan men’s basketball team. Dusty May and his staff deploying the right lineups at the right times has played a big factor in the program’s unprecedented turnaround from a year ago.
We’ve seen Michigan use slightly different lineups to close out games in the last week. Using the data we have, let’s take a look at what group the Wolverines should close the game with.
We did this exercise back in February after 25 games , but of course, a larger sample size tells a more complete story.
Lineup Data (courtesy of CBB Analytics)
Observations
- This past win over Texas A&M , aka the Roddy Gayle Jr. game, swung data in favor of a lineup with Gayle in it. The lineup with Gayle, Tre Donaldson, Nimari Burnett, Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin has a plus/minus of +93 — in the 99th percentile in the sport — as opposed to the usual starting lineup with Rubin Jones having a plus/minus of +31.
- That lineup with Gayle is also Michigan’s best in effective field goal percentage, which accounts for threes being worth more than twos.
- Opponents post their worst effective field goal percentage (46.1 percent) against the Gayle lineup.
- You’d think the best offensive rebounding lineup would be the one with Area 50-1 and Will Tschetter, but in terms of percentages, it’s actually Donaldson-Burnett-Gayle-Wolf-Goldin.
- Nearly every lineup with Wolf and Goldin is in the 67th percentile or higher in offensive rebounding rate.
- That lineup with Gayle in place of Jones shoots the best from three (61.5 percent, 98th percentile).
- Over the last few weeks, we’ve seen Donaldson and L.J. Cason share the floor a little more. While it’s a small sample size, that lineup has the highest free throw attempt rate (74.1 percent, 97th percentile). Essentially, that duo with Burnett, Wolf and Goldin draws more fouls and gets a higher percentage of its points at the charity stripe than any other lineup.
- All of Michigan’s worst turnover lineups include Wolf, with most also including Goldin. Part of that is because they play a lot of minutes, which in turn means more turnovers. In terms of taking care of the ball, Michigan’s best lineup is Donaldson-Jones-Gayle-Wolf-Goldin.
- Looking at defensive ratings, Michigan’s best lineups include Gayle, Wolf and Goldin.
- Oddly enough, despite Goldin being Michigan’s leading scorer, Michigan’s best lineup in terms of field goal percentage is Donaldson-Burnett-Gayle-Tschetter-Wolf.
- The only group that’s above average (higher than 50th percentile) when it comes to the turnover percentage of opponents is Donaldson-Jones-Gayle-Tschetter-Goldin (18.3 percent, 75 percentile).
So, what lineup should Michigan close the game with against Auburn?
That Texas A&M game certainly skewed the data in favor of Gayle. That said, looking at this data, Michigan’s best unit may include Gayle with Donaldson, Burnett, Wolf and Goldin.
Dusty May has proven to be an excellent coach, and perhaps one of his most underrated skills is his adaptability. I don’t think Michigan has a set plan for who will close games, as it will likely depend on who is playing the best out of Gayle, Jones, Burnett and Cason.
Wolf, Goldin and Donaldson feel like locks to always close games, with Donaldson’s clutch gene, Goldin’s consistency, and Wolf’s playmaking — as long as Wolf isn’t turning the ball over at an egregious rate — being extra important late in close games.
Will Tschetter shooting well can also factor into late-game situations, with most of the Tschetter lineups being above average in scoring metrics.
With Michigan on a five-game winning streak, I don’t see the Wolverines removing Jones for Gayle in the starting lineup. Continuity is important, and Gayle has thrived in a bench role.
In terms of the end of games, Gayle appears to be the best option statistically, but the Wolverines will likely ride the hot hand. Gayle and Cason can provide more offense, while Jones can boost Michigan’s defense. If Area 50-1 is in foul trouble, Tschetter has proven to be a reliable option on both ends as well.
My biggest takeaway — Michigan really can’t go wrong with any of its lineups right now. You can nitpick based on whether you need a three-pointer or a defensive stop, but the eight players in Michigan’s rotation are firing on all cylinders at the moment.