As Yaxel Lendeborg gathers feedback from the NBA, Michigan basketball must sit and wait. Here are the questions that will drive the UAB transfer’s decision:
This offseason has been an unequivocal success for Dusty May and the Michigan Wolverines . Just about every outlet sees the incoming transfer class as one of the country’s best, and indeed Elliot Cadeau, Morez Johnson, and Aday Mara will go a long way in replacing Tre Donaldson, Danny Wolf, Vlad Goldin, and the other Ann Arbor departures, arguably building an even better squad for next season.
However, there is still one major looming question. May took a shot on the ultra-talented Yaxel Lendeborg, knowing it was quite possible he would never suit up for the Wolverines. This is a low-risk recruitment, but one with extreme volatility, as his arrival on campus would turn a top-25 squad into a likely preseason top-five team. All that is left is Lendeborg’s decision, which should be decided after his performance at the NBA Combine this week.
Early reports from the Combine suggest this truly is a toss-up . As Lendeborg tests the waters, here are three big questions that could determine whether or not he ever makes it to Ann Arbor.
What is the goal for this week?
Lendeborg looks like a future pro. The forward put up 17.7 points and 11.4 rebounds on 52.2 percent shooting in his final year at UAB, while hitting 35.7 percent of his threes with 4.2 assists to go along with that production as well. His talent goes beyond just the raw numbers, though the stats are what helped him gain such buzz coming from a smaller school. That means his task this week is proving their translatability to the next level.
Simply put, Lendeborg just needs to prove he is worth a team taking a shot at him in the first round of the NBA Draft . Kellen Voss dug into the financials , but the main takeaway is that a second-round contract is easy for Michigan to beat, but a first-round guarantee will be hard for a dynamic talent like Lendeborg to turn down, even if the NIL could match.
Clearly Lendeborg is a gifted athlete that can contribute in multiple facets, but there are a few things scouts will be looking at this week. One is his ability to play that point forward type of role in the NBA. Modern teams require shooting from every position, and while he shot threes well enough last season, his jumper is not exactly automatic. He also will be questioned as a ball-handler and challenged defensively on the perimeter, having faced mostly mid-major competition throughout his career.
These are not measurable benchmarks he needs to record this week, so I will not speculate on firm feats he needs to produce at the Combine. However, I think it is clear that his biggest goal will be showing teams that he has the potential to shore up these development areas enough to justify taking him as a top-30 pick and that he can hang against similarly gifted athletes.
How viable is this pathway?
In general, the NFL Combine is seen as much more volatile — for better or worse — in terms of a prospect’s ability to change their pre-draft perception than the NBA Combine. The football process centers much more around measurables, which always seem valued by organizations, and even with recent opt-outs, a higher percentage of top prospects choose to participate. While this week will still be crucial for Lendeborg and his peers, they will not be facing lottery locks (though that could be seen as an advantage).
Indeed, the main focus of the NBA Combine is on the cusp between the end of the first round and the beginning of the second, where Lendeborg currently sits. Historical data is difficult to interpret, as it is never clear where prospects exactly sit on draft boards prior to draft night itself, but recent narratives suggest that moving down following the Combine is as likely as rising up.
On the positive side, you have players like Baylor Scheierman last season, whose strong Combine seemingly lifted him into the first round. The same appeared to be the case for Brandin Podziemski and Ben Sheppard the year before, accomplished college players hoping to show that they had the skills necessary to make the leap into the NBA; this is the exact path Lendeborg is looking to follow.
However, the opposite is perhaps even more prevalent. Last year’s Combine “winners” included names like Jonathan Mogbo (31st), Adem Bona (41st), KJ Simpson (42nd), and Jamal Shead (45th), who all failed to make it into the first round. Though not all entered the Combine with aspirations as high as Lendeborg, it is a strong reminder that even a good performance and positive feedback from teams might not actually amount to the desired outcome.
Is this even the right goal?
It certainly is possible that Lendeborg gets a guarantee from a team picking in the back half of the first round and that is that. But if that guarantee does not come, I would really encourage Lendeborg to rethink the question — the framing should not be “Michigan is only the option if the NBA is a clear no,” but rather “the NBA is only the option if it is an abundant yes.”
May has proven to be a talent developer, and Lendeborg is not starting from square one. A dominant season in Ann Arbor, where he can show his ability to score on, shoot over, and defend Big Ten opposition, will make next year’s Combine less about avoiding the second round and more about jumping spots at the top of the draft. The allure of an NBA contract right now is tempting, but the potential is there for so much more.
It might seem crazy to leave a first-round guarantee on the table, but if Lendeborg continues his trajectory, the upside of next year’s draft could dwarf his current dilemma. There is always a risk of injury or regression, but if Lendeborg steps back and takes a look at the big picture, there is a strong argument to make that a year under May in Ann Arbor will maximize his NBA success in the long run, regardless of what anyone offers him this week.