Everyone knows that the ultimate college basketball stage is March Madness, where 64 teams compete in single elimination to win the national championship.
Teams have two ways to qualify: 1) you win your conference tournament to automatically qualify, or 2) your season resume is good enough to earn an at-large bid. The Horizon League is a traditional one-bid conference, meaning that it usually only sends one team, which is the conference tournament champion. That means that, realistically, the only way for Horizon League teams to make it to the Big Dance is by winning the conference tournament.
On Monday, March 11, the semifinals of the tournament begin at 7 p.m. The matchups are No. 1 seed Oakland against No. 7 seed Cleveland State at 7 p.m., and then No. 5 seed Northern Kentucky takes on No. 6 seed Milwaukee at 9:30 p.m.
How will these matchups go? How did the Grizzlies fare against these teams in the regular season? And when the dust settles, who has the best chance to punch their ticket to March Madness?
Game 1: No. 1 Oakland vs. No. 7 Cleveland State Vikings
The Grizzlies defeated the No. 8-seeded Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons on Thursday, March 7 to advance. It was a huge victory that redeemed an early December loss to the Mastodons, a 98-77 drubbing. Cleveland State had to go through second-seeded Youngstown State to get to the semifinals, and they did it without leading scorer and all-conference first-teamer Tristan Enaruna. The Vikings took the lead with 11 minutes left to play in the first half, and they never relinquished it. So, how do Oakland and CSU match up?
The two teams split the series in the regular season. Cleveland State thoroughly handled Oakland on Dec. 28 in Cleveland to the tune of a 75-67 victory. At halftime of that meeting, the Grizzlies trailed 41-23. Ten turnovers for Oakland in that first half led to multiple easy runouts for the Vikings, and multiple missed layups on the offensive end didn’t help either. The Grizzlies looked out of sorts and overwhelmed on defense.
In the second half, some life came back into Oakland on defense. They turned CSU over 10 times themselves and started to claw their way back into the game. As their defense held strong, the lead was finally down to four, but the Grizzlies couldn’t quite get ahead. A rough 5-25 showing from the 3-point line and 10 missed free throws held them back from finishing the job.
As a manager for Oakland, I can say that the longest I have ever waited for the team to be done in the locker room after a game was at Cleveland State after that loss. There was an over-45-minute discussion. That post-game talk in the locker room proved to be a pivotal point in the season. Ever since then, Oakland has gone a whopping 16-2.
On Feb. 3, Oakland took their revenge. The Vikings came to the OU Credit Union O’rena and left with an 83-71 loss. After an early 11-10 lead, CSU would never reclaim the advantage. The Grizzlies took much better care of the ball, committing only seven turnovers compared to 16 the first time they played. They also hit their free throws, going 23-23 from the charity stripe and outrebounding CSU 42-34.
The biggest key to Oakland defeating Cleveland State again in the semifinals is to keep them out of transition. If Enaruna plays, they have an NBA-caliber athlete ready to lead their fast break, followed by Tae Williams, another excellent rebounder and transistor. If Enaruna doesn’t play, then the focus will be turned to fifth-year point guard Drew Lowder, whose 17 points helped lead the Vikings to an upset over Youngstown State.
My (partially biased) prediction is that Oakland will have a dominant win, something along the lines of 87-73. Trey Townsend will have a huge game, and Blake Lampman will find his shooting stroke after an off-game against Purdue Fort Wayne.
Game 2: No. 5 Northern Kentucky vs. No. 6 Milwaukee
In the regular season, these two teams split, with NKU taking the first matchup in January and Milwaukee avenging that loss with a one-point win in February.
On Jan. 18, Milwaukee traveled to NKU, looking to get to 5-2 on the season. It was a close contest the entire game, with the largest lead going to the NKU Norse. They were up nine with 16:32 left in the second half. The Milwaukee Panthers managed to bring it back to being down by only a point, but then the game blew open.
The Norse ended on a 26-9 run from the nine-minute mark onward. It was fueled by 10 points from all-conference first-teamer Marques Warrick and 13 overall free throws for the team. The Panthers couldn’t handle NKU’s pressure down the stretch, committing six of their 18 turnovers in that nine-minute span. The Norse force 14.6 turnovers per game, good for second in the Horizon League.
Milwaukee’s Elijah Jamison led the team with 22 points and five rebounds, followed closely by all-conference second-team guard BJ Freeman with 15 points and seven assists and guard Erik Pratt’s 14 points. They scored 51 of the team’s 72 points but also turned the ball over 13 times of the team’s 18. If Milwaukee wants to advance to the finals, they must get better ball control from their lead guards.
On Feb. 17, it was Milwaukee’s turn to host. The Norse held a one-point advantage at the half, leading 36-35. The Panther guards did a better job with the ball this time around, as their guard trio had nine turnovers. Jamison himself had four, so he must value the basketball more this time around. This time around, BJ Freeman came off the bench and lit the game up with 26 points, 11 rebounds and five assists. Milwaukee had a balanced scoring effort around him, with five other players scoring more than five points.
On NKU’s behalf, Warrick was again exceptional with 20 points. They hit shots down the stretch, but Milwaukee’s Angelo Stuart hit the game-winning 3-pointer with a second left. Milwaukee would win 73-72. The loss of Sam Vinson early in the season hurt the Norse a lot, as they lost their second go-to scorer. Will Trey Robinson and Michael Bradley be able to step up and hit shots if Warrick can’t get it going?
For this second semifinal, my pick has to be the Panthers. I think their shot-making is really at an elite level, and I like Freeman a lot as their lead guy. I’ve got Milwaukee in another close game, winning 82-77. However, Warrick has done this before. He took NKU to March Madness as a No. 4 seed and torched the competition. But still, I’m anticipating an Oakland vs. Milwaukee matchup on Tuesday night.