Metrics for Respectability in 2025
Before anyone accuses us of delusion: Michigan State’s defense in 2024 wasn’t good — despite some bright moments at each spot it was the kind of out-of-synch team, not-good that makes you, dear reader, question the scheme complexity, on-field talent, recruiting, the portal, rumors, and of course in this forum – raise calls for a whole new coaching staff… again. So rather than dreaming of instantly recreating the “No-Fly Zone” and Max in the Middle, we’re comparing MSU’s 2024 numbers to what the 1st and 50th-best teams have averaged over the past 12 years since. Why? We do aim high, but also want you to know where the marks are on the score card – also, this site’s article drafting interface isn’t really set up for box-and-whisker-plots.
The 50th team is a bit better than average — and after back-to-back seasons of defensive futility, average would still be a solid improvement in key categories. Add in an improved offense, and good things should happen.
Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
First up: Third-Down Conversion Defense. The 50th-ranked team typically allows opponents to convert 37.5% of third downs. MSU in 2024? A generous 44.3%, which ranked 109th out of 133 teams. For a sense of the upper ceiling, the nation’s best third-down defense last year allowed just 25.9% conversions. So yes, there’s a Grand Canyon between the Spartans’ recent reality and elite status, but even closing the gap to 37.5% would mean getting off the field more than a handful of times per game.
Mike Carter-Imagn Images
Penalty Yards were another consistent embarrassment last year. Over the prior 12 years, the 50th-best team averaged 49.1 penalty yards per game. MSU? They handed over 63.3 yards each Saturday, ranking 110th — more yards than some offenses gained all year [not really, Kent St. still grabbed about 233 per game – fun fact, um averaged about 286 offensive yards (we managed to gain 333 per)]. Even the least-flagged teams in the country still averaged 28-ish penalty yards per game, so perfection isn’t realistic, but cutting down from 63.3 to something in the mid-40s would be a massive step toward needed control and discipline.
Through the air, the average 50th-best defense over the past dozen years allowed about 7.21 yards per attempt. MSU last season allowed 7.32 — ranking a mediocre (but not catastrophic) 78th. It’s a far cry from peak Darqueze & Waynes when the Spartans gave up just 5.18 yards per attempt and ranked #2 nationally, but it’s a reminder that the current situation isn’t irredeemable.
Mike Carter-Imagn Images
And then there’s the one bright spot: Run Defense. The average across all 133 teams in 2024 was 4.41 yards allowed per rush. MSU was better than that, surrendering just 3.72 yards per carry — good for 32nd in the country. For context, the best team in the nation gave up just 2.29 yards per rush. So, while the Spartans weren’t destroying anyone like 2014 Bane trying to suplex ball carriers, they at least proved capable of tackling running backs somewhere before the first down marker.
So what should Spartan fans expect — or hope for — in 2025? Much better than average. A second year defense that operates more intuitively should get off the field following third-down, keep penalties reasonable, and maintain a solid run defense despite losses in the middle. And fans would would see real progress. In a Big Ten that’s pulling away from the rest of the FBS (along with the SEC), only getting to average out of 133 isn’t going to cut it.
***
Totally separately, this will be my last (official) piece for The Only Colors. It’s been an excellent year writing for you. (Un)fortunately, I’ve had some shifts on the work and home fronts which mean I need to transition back to being a regular fan – though there will probably be more games missed in the 25-26 seasons than I’d prefer. Thank you for the comments and support as I put pen to page for our teams in Green & White. I’ll look forward to seeing you all at the games here and there (mostly there).
Go Green.