Spartans Won the Bye Week – Back to Work
As our Michigan State Spartans prepare to take on the Iowa Hawkeyes this Saturday evening, the good fanbase is bracing for what could be a pivotal game for the remainder of the 2024 season. The Spartans carry a mid-season record that has been a mix of grit and frustration. Michigan State has found itself fighting in tight affairs, and also blowouts each way. Heading into this Big Ten matchup, MSU needs to have found their reset if they want to pull the tide in their favor.
A Test of Grit for the Spartans
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The Spartans’ season thus far has shown flashes of promise, especially in their defense and special teams, but the team has also struggled to find consistency on both sides of the ball. The Spartans’ ability to churn out first downs—113 so far this season—is comparable to their opponents (114). However, any eyeball test would show the bigger challenge: sustaining drives and scoring in critical moments, especially in-conference.
Michigan State has been outscored by just 7 points total over six games. Though, as with the first downs, the point swings from game-to-game belie lost opportunities. Our offensive production, specifically on the ground, has been a mixed bag. A 3.79 yards per rush average for 721 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns isn’t good enough – and also buries a feast or famine cannibalism story. The Green faces a tough task to show real improvement against Iowa’s traditionally stout defensive front. Iowa has only allowed 578 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown all season, boasting a strong 3.34 yards per rush defense. Fortunately OC Brian Lindgren doesn’t believe exclusively in 2 handoffs straight ahead into the teeth of the D with an incomplete pass for dessert. MSU’s offense will need to step up and mix it up to keep Iowa’s offense off the field. We covered the Offensive Line in the mid-Season review – this bye week could not have come at a better time for that line to rest and refocus.
Game week Pressers featured Tight Ends coach Brian Wozniak and So Tight End, Brennan Parachek – both spoke about specific mistakes the room dialed into during the break. We’ve heard all pre-season how the O rides with the Tight Ends. Despite losing Michael Masunas for the rest of the year and Jack Velling’s pretty ordinary start, if the chains are going to keep moving against the same 4-3 base (4-2-5 vs 10, 11 sets) which Iowa’s been using forever, these guys will be a big part of it.
A Defensive Standoff
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MSU’s defense has been respectable, holding opponents to 5.13 yards per play. Iowa’s offense averages 5.80 yards per play. The Spartans have done well in turning over opponents, with 7 interceptions on the season, including a touchdown return. Iowa has also grabbed 7 interceptions of their own. However, the Hawkeyes have only given up 3 INTs and only lost 2 of 7 fumbles with 16 total penalties (MSU’s has summoned the yellow hanky 43 times). If MSU wants to win, they need to lock down the big mistakes. Also, Cal won’t have the missed tackles again. He simply won’t.
In third-down situations, both teams are somewhat evenly matched. MSU has converted 41.1% of their third-down attempts, slightly behind their opponents’ 42.86%. On the other side, Iowa has been efficient, converting 45.12% of their third downs, while limiting opponents to just 34.57%. This battle for third-down supremacy will be key on Saturday. If Michigan State can stay ahead of the chains and keep drives alive, it will take pressure off the defense and keep the game within reach.
Red Zone Woes
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One of the most glaring challenges for Michigan State has been red-zone efficiency. The Spartans have scored on just 66.67% of their red-zone trips, a stat that has been a thorn in their side all season. Iowa, in contrast, has been lethal in the red zone, scoring on 89.47% of their trips (BTW, Iowa has 14 Rushing TDs). If Michigan State wants to walk away with a victory, they need to convert red-zone visits into touchdowns, not just field goals and gut-wrenching turnovers. Fortunately, MSU has been perfect in field-goal attempts, going 9-for-9 this season.
Punting
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Michigan State has an advantage in punting, averaging 47.96 yards per punt, which has been a crucial tool in flipping the field. Iowa, meanwhile, has a capable punter averaging 44.63 yards per punt. However, their punt return game has shown some vulnerability, allowing a 16.2 yards per return average and one touchdown. If MSU can exploit this weakness, they could shift momentum in their favor with a big special teams play – as long as our returners hold on to the ball.
The Path to Victory
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To beat Iowa, Michigan State will need a complete game – generic words, yes, but Iowa has earned them. MSU played OSU and Oregon solid for the first halves of the last two games. The big $$ talent differential isn’t anywhere similar with Iowa – if MSU learned from and can clean up the mistakes they made early in those last couple of matchups they could find themselves grinding out a couple long drives and holding stronger on D. If our guys in Green finish in the red zone and avoid losing the turnover battle, this is a very winnable game.
MSU fans will be looking for the Spartans to come out with intensity and focus after the week off. It’s a night game at home – homecoming – and the stands should be electric. If Michigan State can pull off the victory they are ready for, it should be a turning point towards a strong finish to the season. Go Green.