This should be the toughest opponent of the season
This past Saturday, MSU went to Boston College and let a win slip through their fingers, falling 23-19 for their first defeat of the season. That is not the bad news though. Nope, that would be the realization that the hardest stretch of the schedule begins now, and that stretch starts with a matchup against the Ohio State Buckeyes this Saturday in East Lansing.
This series has not been competitive in recent years, as OSU has beaten our Spartans by at least 20 points in each of the past seven seasons and have won eight straight overall. In fact, the last time MSU won a game against the Buckeyes was in 2015, the season that MSU made it to the College Football Playoffs. For most of this recent spell, OSU has been the class of the Big Ten, winning the conference each year from 2017 to 2020. They probably would have won it the last three years as well if it were not for a massive cheating scandal perpetrated by some other program.
So far in 2024, Ohio State is up to their usual results. Against a pair of MAC schools and then a Sun Belt team, the Buckeyes have won by a combined 157-20. Their lowest output was 49 points. Each year, OSU sends a bevy of players to the NFL, but in true football factory fashion, they don’t seem to miss a beat. In the past four years, OSU has supplied the pros with two starting quarterbacks, four wide receivers, three tight ends, as well as a number of offensive linemen and defensive players.
Despite all of that, this year’s Buckeyes once again have one of the best stable of skilled position players in addition to their strength in the trenches. Here is a look at the 2024 Ohio State Buckeyes.
OFFENSE
Ohio State is starting a new quarterback this year after last year’s starter, Kyle McCord, transferred to Syracuse. Enter Will Howard, a redshirt senior who transferred to OSU this year from Kansas State. He was the full-time starter last year for the Wildcats and won the Buckeyes’ starting job this past offseason. So far this year, he is putting up modest numbers. He is completing 69% of his passes, has thrown for 795 yards, six touchdowns, and one interception through three games. Howard does a lot of things well. Ohio State uses a lot of play-action and RPO in their offensive play calling. Howard has done a good job in selling the fake on play action and has been equally good in making the correct decisions on RPOs. They rarely have negative plays and, as mentioned above, he completes most of his passes. He can hit passes to all depths of the defense, even completing about 40% of his attempts beyond 20 yards, by far his lowest of any range.
Of course, this is Ohio State we are talking about, so you know there are a bunch of weapons at Howard’s disposal that help make his life easy. If I would have told you before the season that Treveyon Henderson would lead the Buckeyes in rushing yards and Emeka Egbuka would lead them in receiving yards, you would have believed me. But through three games that is not the case. Both those players are second in their respective categories. Junior transfer Quinshon Judkins, from Ole Miss, is the top rusher so far and true freshman Jeremiah Smith is leading the way through the air. Smith and Egbuka are 5th and 8th, respectively, in Big Ten receiving yards. Judkins is fifth in the Big ten in rushing yards.
Finally, the offensive line is formidable as always. Seth McLaughlin transferred in from Alabama, where he was a Rimington Award (best center) finalist last year, to take over snapping duties. The other four starters on the line all have experience in the Buckeye program including the returning starters at left tackle, left guard, and right tackle.
DEFENSE
If reading about the Buckeyes’ offense did not get you worrying, then certainly this section will do the trick. Let’s start with this. There may be more talent on the defensive side of the ball. Their 4-2-5 base is stock full of future NFL players. On the D-line alone, there are probably three, most notably Tyleik Williams, a DT. The defense for the Buckeyes has not spent a lot of time on the field this season, so no one has really had the chance to put up big numbers.
The backend is highlighted by a pair of safeties, Denzel Burke and Caleb Downs, who both earned all-conference honors in 2023. Downs accomplished that last year at Alabama where, as a freshman, he led the team in tackles.
Certainly, OSU’s defense has been made to look good as they have played three group-of-five teams, but they have been better than good. They are second in the nation in allowing just 180 yards/game to their opponents’ offense and fourth at 6.7 PPG allowed. Surprisingly, one thing they have not done a lot of this year is create turnovers. Through three games, they have recorded two interceptions and three fumble recoveries. MSU leads them in both categories.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Here is an area where there is a relative weakness in the Buckeyes’ roster. Special teams was an issue for OSU in 2023, so much so that their ST Coordinator was replaced in the offseason. Yet issues continue. Just this past week, Ohio State had three kickoffs go out of bounds and muffed one punt catch. They have only made and taken one field goal thus far, simply due to the fact they have been too busy scoring touchdowns. But their punter is only averaging 42 yards per punt, third worst in the Big Ten. In returns, they are dead last in the B1G in kick returns and 11th in punt returns.
MSU’S KEYS TO WINNING
Turnovers: Let’s begin with the obvious. Michigan State has thrown 7 interceptions this season and fumbled the ball six times, losing it three of those times. Those ten turnovers (2.5/game) has left MSU with a -5 turnover margin through four games. Against an opponent like Ohio State, the Spartans need to make sure they are getting the most out of every offensive possession and not giving the Buckeyes’ explosive offense more chances to score. MSU, and specifically Aidan Chiles, need to make sure they are protecting the ball. A turnover margin in this game of anything below -1 would be trouble, and ideally MSU can keep it even or even win this battle.
Getting solid play from the offensive line: I discussed earlier that Ohio State has some serious talent on its defensive line. I will tab this as the matchup to watch that will have the largest influence on the outcome of this game. The MSU O-line, injured as it may be, needs to step up and play the game of its life. It needs to give Chiles time to throw so he does not feel rushed and make bad throws, and it needs to be able to open up at least the occasional hole so the Spartan ground game of Nate Carter and Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams can bust a few big gains. Again, this comes down to MSU being able to sustain drives and keep OSU’s offense on its sideline.
Coaching: On paper, Ohio State is a better football team than Michigan State. Nothing controversial in that comment. So Jonathan Smith and his crew are going to have to come up with some surprises in this game. We need to see some new plays on offense (i.e. trick plays) and some new blitzes and coverage schemes, just so OSU has to deal with some things they have not seen on tape. Given an even number of offensive possessions, the stats from this young season will tell you that the Buckeyes will score more points. But if MSU can roll out some new wrinkles to make our offense more potent and the OSU offense less potent, then maybe we will have a puncher’s chance.
I’m not one for moral victories, but I just hope this is not another 20+ point blowout. Let’s see if MSU can make this a competitive matchup.