Analyzing the Spartans through three games
Michigan State has played and won their first three games of the season. There was an ugly win in the opener against Florida Atlantic, a dramatic rally on the road at Maryland, and then a shutout against FCS Prairie View. There has been a mix of bright spots and maddening moments at the dawn of the Jonathan Smith era.
Being 25% of the way through the season, we will take this opportunity to review MSU’s performance thus far, broken down by position group, and ask you to give your grades as well.
QUARTERBACKS
Aidan Chiles: 46 for 82 (56%), 650 yards, 4 TDs, 5 INTs, 2 Rush TDs
Tommy Schuster: 8 for 10 (80%), 97 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 1 Rush TD
The prized possession of the transfer class, Aidan Chiles, has shown some star potential, hitting some highlight-reel passes to his targets and showing maturity beyond his years in his ability to quickly put his mistakes behind him. Those mistakes, however, have been numerous and have put MSU in tough spots, particularly in the Maryland game. He does have more INTs than TD passes and his 56.1% completion rate places him at 110 out of 131 qualifying quarterbacks. So while Aidan has demonstrated the ability to hit the big pass (i.e. the 77-yard dime to Nick Marsh against Maryland), he certainly bears responsibility for many of the struggles the Spartans had faced in the first two games of the year. In the game against Prairie View, MSU’s strongest performance, Chiles was not tasked with doing much and, due to the one-sidedness of that game, got to enjoy the final quarter with his helmet off. That game does not weigh heavily into the QB grade, nor does Tommy Schuster’s quarter of action. Aidan is young and clearly still learning to be the man, and it feels like this grade should improve as the season goes on. For the first two games, two victories decided by a total of nine points, Aidan Chiles receives a B-.
RUNNING BACKS
Nate Carter: 38 carries, 198 yards (5.2 avg), 1 TD
Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams: 34 carries, 210 yards (6.2 avg) 1 TD
Nate Carter came into the season as the starter after being the only RB of worth for MSU in 2023. Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams was his main backup. It only took one game, the opener against FAU, for Carter’s status as the lead back to come into question. In that game, Carter had 19 touches and 48 yards, a 2.5 average, while the unknown Lynch-Adams cranked out 101 yards on just 9 rushes, good for an 11.2 average. The performance was so impressive that it was Kay’Ron, not Nate, who was invited to the post-game press conference. It should have come as no surprise then that the two RBs saw a nearly identical number of rushes in the second game, and Kay’Ron actually had a nearly 2:1 advantage in the third game. That said, it was Nate who had the better statistical performance in that last game, gaining 91 yards on just 8 opportunities.
Overall, though, the 497 yards that MSU has gained on the ground (408 by the two lead RBs) puts them 56th in the nation. Granted, the offensive line has not been the most dominant and the RBs have often had to make their own opportunities. Both Carter and Lynch-Adams have housed TD runs of at least 60 yards in this young season, displaying big-play ability. But each have also had touches where they have struggled to see the hole and have been bottled up by the defense. I am enjoying having options 1A and 1B, and I imagine that will benefit the team later in the year by having both of them having fewer total touches than many of their peers. Neither of them are stars, but they are both capable contributors. They earn a B.
WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS
Nick Marsh: 11 receptions, 232 yards (21.1 avg), 1 TD
Montorie Foster, Jr.: 13 receptions, 113 yards (8.7 avg), 1 TD
Jaron Glover: 6 receptions, 84 yards (14 avg), 1 TD
Jack Velling, 6 receptions, 82 yards (13.7 avg), 0 TD
Aziah Johnson: 3 receptions, 72 yards (24 avg), 1 TD
Antonio Gates, Jr.: 4 receptions, 49 yards (12.3 avg), 0 TD
Michael Masunas: 3 receptions, 34 yards (11.3 avg)
Montorie Foster Jr. was expected by most people to be MSU’s leading receiver in 2024. It isn’t the fact that he is not at the top of the table through three games that makes his performance this far underwhelming; it is the number of targets sent his way where he failed to secure the catch (including Aidan Chiles’ first attempt as a Spartan which ended as an INT). Earlier in the season, Chiles was targeting him as a deep threat to minimal positive results. In the last game against PV, we saw Foster getting more targets underneath, sitting down in the zone, for more effective outcomes.
Where Foster has struggled, Nick Marsh has excelled. The 17-year-old true freshman has already established himself as the Spartans best deep threat, a status he earned in just his second game when he burned the Maryland defense on the way for a 77-yard TD play. We need to see some more consistency in his performances (3 receptions, 38 yards total in games 1 and 3), but it is a fair assumption that those opportunities will come as the competition gets tougher and he needs to be relied on more.
No other receiver has reached double digits in catches yet, which is a little concerning, but this crew has shown its depth as ten different WRs and TEs have at least one catch, plus three more RBs. Jaron Glover missed the last game with an injury and Alante Brown has missed the past two. No word yet on how long they will be out. There have been drops, and that needs to be cleaned up. This team is not good enough to be leaving yards and points on the board. They are responsible for some of the incompletions in Chiles’ stat line. Not a disaster, but not up to the level we have seen in recent years (excluding last year). They get a C+.
OFFENSIVE LINE
Speaking of injuries, this is probably the most impacted unit on the team. This is particularly the case at right guard where Dallas Fincher is now the third man up after injuries to Kristian Phillips and Gavin Broscious. As an entire unit, MSU’s front five are young, inexperienced, and lacking depth and familiarity. These flaws have been on display in every game thus far, including against Prairie View. The pass blocking has generally been solid, as Chiles has usually had time to go through his progressions and has only been sacked three times on the season. The run blocking, on the other hand, has struggled at times, as can be seen in MSU’s total rush yardage (mentioned above). This has been the weakest part of the offense to this point, and they get a C.
DEFENSIVE LINE
When I wrote about this group in the preseason , I was mostly pessimistic about it. So far, though, the defensive line has exceeded my expectations. The biggest surprise for me has been the play of Khris Bogle, one of the starters at defensive end. His performance this year is what we had hoped for when he transferred here from Florida; maybe I was right and his play the last two years was impacted by the coaching. One last note on Bogle, he was at the press conference after the opener against FAU; this young man is jacked!
We knew we had some new transfers as well who would have an opportunity to make names for themselves, and that is certainly happening with starting DT D’Quan Douse, who is second among the DL in tackles (LBs and DBs dominate this category overall).
What has been most remarkable about this unit is the depth we are getting and the number of players getting involved. From this last game, out of 49 defensive snaps, no DL had more than 26 snaps (Bogle), while nine other guys had between 11 and 20 plays. And this is not a case of the coaches looking for something or someone to do something positive. The Michigan State run defense is currently top 25 nationally according to PFF. They are doing their job very well, and better than this writer had expected. I’ll give them a B+.
LINEBACKERS
Unlike the DL, I came into the season expecting big things from the LB room, with a strong mix of returning and transfer players available to DC/LB coach Joe Rossi. Cal Haladay, to no surprise, has been doing Cal Haladay things, and transfer Jordan Turner is leading the team in tackles while also being second in sacks, by just half a sack.
Beyond those two, however, there has not been much to be impressed by. Jordan Hall, Darius Snow, and transfer Wayne Matthews III have only put up modest numbers so far in 2024. With the DL doing it’s job as effectively as it has been, I would like to see the second line of defense getting home for more sacks and TFLs, but that has not been happening. As a unit, the LBs have not generated any turnovers through three games. I can’t be too critical as there have not been many glaring mistakes or bad plays from the LBs, but I would like to see them be more disruptive to the other team and help more with getting the ball back over to the offense. This grade may seem harsh, and I think I will get some arguments from you, but I am giving them a B-.
DEFENSIVE BACKS
The defense as a whole has created four turnovers on the season, all four being interceptions. They also have one forced fumble, which sadly was not recovered by us. All four interceptions can be attributed to the defensive backfield. I have to give a special shoutout to Charles Brantley here for his 100 yard (officially, but really 105ish) interception return in this last game which occurred, amazingly, on the same drive where he had another pick-six negated by a penalty. He certainly earned the game ball from the Prairie View game. In fact, his 92.1 PFF grade from the game was tops in the land among cornerbacks in week 3.
Brantley is not the only member of the DB group playing well for the Spartans. Angelo Grose has one interception and the aforementioned forced fumble. And he is tied with Turner for the team lead in tackles.
Just like the DL, the DBs are getting positive contributions from a number of guys, allowing the coaches to rotate players and keep everyone fresh. Nikai Martinez, Malik Spencer, Ed Woods, and Armorion Smith (whose personal story was discussed by the commentators this past week) have all been disruptive forces whose names we have gotten used to hearing on the broadcasts.
This group was the easiest to grade as they have been the best on the defense thus far: A.
SPECIAL TEAMS
This one will be quick. Jonathan Kim is 8/9 on extra points and a perfect 4 for 4 on FGs, including one from 50 yards out. Ryan Eckley is averaging a career-best 50.6 yards per punt, and had one go for 61 yards against Maryland. These guys are getting it done and get top marks: A+.
COACHING
Things are certainly looking up in Spartan Stadium right now. Sure, it has not been mistake-free football, but I have a feeling that is by design. I think Jonathan Smith and his staff are installing an aggressive style of play that, while susceptible to mistakes, has led to big plays that are swinging the games in our favor. Big risk, big reward. And it seems like the players are really taking to it. This team seems to be bonding quickly, which you get a feel for if you listen to the post-game pressers, and they are having fun out there.
It goes without saying that last year was not fun for the guys in that locker room. This new regime has brought about a complete sea-change to the program, and they have the team playing with an energy that we have not seen in a few seasons, and certainly not from the entire team (thank you, Kenneth Walker!). I expect to see this style continue, as it also has the benefit of creating teaching moments, and it is clear already, through three games, that this squad is improving on the fundamentals. Basically, I think the coaching staff has been wonderful so far.
Of course, I do have to ding them a little bit for the excessive penalties, especially the 15-yard variety. For now, Smith & Co get an A-.
Thanks for taking the survey. Now on to the second quarter…