Round 1 of 6
#2 Michigan State vs. #15 Bryant
Robert Goddin-Imagn Images
The Spartans Open Their Tournament Run in Cleveland
The Big Ten champion Michigan State Spartans are headed back to the NCAA Tournament for the 27th straight time as the No. 2 seed in the South Region, set to open their quest for another Final Four (and maybe more) against the 15th-seeded Bryant Bulldogs on Friday night at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland. Tip-off is scheduled for 10 p.m. Eastern on TBS.
For Tom Izzo’s 27-6 Spartans, the goal is simple—survive, advance, and remind everyone why and how they’ve scraped their way up through and defied SEC-fanboy rankings and pretty middling expectations all season. The first task up is Bryant, the America East tournament champion and a team that, while capable of putting points on the board and has some length at the guards, should be overmatched against MSU’s depth and defensive intensity.
According to FanDuel Sportsbook , Michigan State is 17.5 favorite over Bryant for the first round NCAA tournament game.
Meet the Bulldogs
Bryant arrives in Cleveland on a six-game win streak, finishing 23-11 overall and 14-2 in conference play. The Bulldogs play fast, averaging 82.4 points per game while shooting 46% from the field. They boast solid rebounding numbers with a +5.4 margin and 15 assists per game, but the step up in competition Friday will be significant. Also, the team might have had their thumb on the points scale a bit with a couple 100+ point wins along the way (e.g. 122 against Vermont State-Johnson back in early December).
Their offense runs through a pair of experienced scorers. Rafael Pinzon, a 6’5” senior guard transfer from St. John’s, leads the way at 18.5 points per game and shoots nearly 39% from deep on heavy volume. Meanwhile, Earl Timberlake—a 6’6” Memphis transfer guard with size and strength—averages 15.5 points, 9 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game while shooting over 50%. Timberlake rarely shoots threes but is the Bulldogs’ best all-around player and a handful when attacking the rim.
Forward Barry Evans (13.5 ppg, 7 rpg) and big man Connor Withers (11.3 ppg) round out the main scoring threats. However, depth is a concern. Head Coach Phil Martelli (Jr.) has gathered a good number of transfers, the aforementioned and others from Miami, Penn State, Hofstra, St. Bonaventure, and others – but has leaned heavily on just seven players during their conference tournament run (a few players saw 1 minute each in two of the three games), and against the size, speed, and relentless pressure of MSU, that thin rotation could break down quickly.
Defensively, Bryant allows nearly 74 points per game and struggles against more physical teams—something that should bode well for the Spartans. Their 3-point defense is respectable (32.4%), but they’ve been exposed against high-major programs, losing badly to St. Bonaventure (lost by 15), St. John’s (lost by 22), and Grand Canyon (lost 66-112) earlier this season.
Why MSU Should Handle Business
The Spartans enter the tournament well-seasoned after a brutal back half of the schedule, and well-prepared after a wake-up call against Wisco last Saturday gave our guys an extra day of rest. We’ve seen our guys in green brick-by-brick build a balanced attack, and a top-tier defense. MSU’s depth—one of its biggest strengths—will be a critical factor. Bryant’s core four may be capable, but MSU rolls nine deep, with Red Wings-style line changes, multiple shooters and bigs to swap – or just space for Izzo to grab Holloman or Fears or Akins, yell at ‘em, and toss ‘em back in.
Expect Izzo to challenge Bryant’s interior early with MSU’s post players while using elite defensive play to pressure Bryant’s backcourt. That focus should be simple: contain Pinzon on the perimeter – likely a Jaden assignment – and prevent Timberlake from functioning inside. Given Bryant’s reliance on its top four, foul trouble or fatigue could turn this into a second-half rout.
While Bryant’s offensive numbers might raise eyebrows, it’s tough to see them matching up for 40 minutes. Their occasional offensive outbursts often came against weaker competition, and their poor showings against even upper-ish-tier teams show a more telling story.
The Pick
Bryant may have earned their spot in the dance, but this is a major step up in competition. MSU’s discipline, depth, and defense should overwhelm the Bulldogs. Expect a competitive first ten minutes before the Spartans impose their will and pull away comfortably.
Predictions: Michigan State 84, Bryant 62
O’s pick: 82-68 MSU. 21 from Jase
Mike’s pick: A slow start in the first half. 69-60 MSU.
Steve’s pick: 72-66 MSU
Should MSU meet challenge one, here’s how the rest of the tourney should play out:
Second Round: Marquette Golden Eagles
Assuming a first-round victory, Michigan State would likely face the 7th-seeded Marquette Golden Eagles – led by Shaka Smart – a 3rd generation leaf in the Izzo Coaching tree. Marquette has had a solid season – finishing 4th in the Big East, falling to 1-seeded St. Johns in their tourney, but the Spartans’ depth and experience should give them the edge in this contest.
Sweet 16: Iowa State Cyclones
In the Sweet 16, the Spartans are projected to meet the 3rd-seeded Iowa State Cyclones. Much like MSU, Iowa State’s balanced attack and defensive tenacity present a significant challenge to opponents. This game would harken back to the 2000 run and AP Head Coach of the year, Larry Eustachy’s ejection from the Palace. These may be different teams, but the outcome and advancement remains the same.
Elite Eight: Auburn Tigers
The Elite Eight could feature a showdown with the top-seeded Auburn Tigers. Auburn has been “dominant” this season, but like the Spartans, they lost three times in conference play. Also, like the Spartans, the Tiger’s lost in their conference semi’s despite winning the league outright. People are saying the South is the toughest bracket – they’re not saying Auburn has it easy. This second game of the second weekend is the one Izzo owns.
Final Four: Florida
Reaching the Final Four, Michigan State should be facing a rematch of the 2000 Championship. Florida’s not a team I thought much about this season as I don’t pay much attention to the SEC, but they pulled out some solid wins over Tennessee and Auburn (both #1’s at the time) among others this season. I imagine if the Spartans get this far, their unselfish play and defensive intensity secures them a spot in the championship game.
National Championship: Houston Cougars
In the title game, the Spartans could face the Houston Cougars, who have been a formidable force this season. Houston’s athleticism and defensive strength are noteworthy, behind Hakeem Olajuwon, Clyde Drexler, and their Phi Slamma Jamma cohort… j/k. I don’t watch Houston or know anything about them. But if Michigan State is in this game, the Spartans are winning it..
Go Green.
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