Is this season beyond saving?
I have always tried to be the voice of optimism when it comes to my sports teams. I will predict victories and postseason success until clocks run out and prospects become mathematically impossible. Right now, I am teetering on the edge of thinking the math may not be there for Michigan State anymore. After losing on a buzzer beater to the 13th place team in the Big Ten on their home court, their second consecutive home loss, the Spartans record is now 17-11 overall and 9-8 in conference play. They are now in 7th place in the conference.
This game felt like a punch in the stomach. MSU led at all points of the game except 0-0, 2-2, and when OSU went up 57-56 with 11 seconds to go. MSU tied it up at the FT line five seconds later. But MSU completely fell apart down the stretch. They held a 50-38 lead with 11 minutes to go. From there on, the Buckeyes held the Spartans to seven points as they slowly chipped away at the lead until they finally tied it and took the lead at the stripe with eleven ticks left. I don’t want to get into who is to blame, as really it is everyone. Coach did not get the lineups right and players simply could not score. They had the look of a team that does not know how to deal with adversity in a game. When they play well, they are fine. But once they start to struggle, they are showing an inability to crawl out of the quicksand. And that does not bode well for the rest of the season and for Michigan State’s chances of making it to The Dance.
When I look at the remaining schedule, I have no optimism in saying any of the games still to come are a likely victory.
- @ Purdue next Saturday. The Boilermakers will most likely be able to clinch the Big Ten with a home win in that game (unless Illinois loses a game first). That does not feel like a game we should win.
- Northwestern the following Wednesday. Senior Night in East Lansing against a team that beat us by 14 back in December on their court and who are trying to lock up a top-four finish in the conference. Better chances than Purdue, but I do not feel good about it now.
- @ Indiana two Sundays from now. Sure, this is the worst team left on the schedule, but it is a road game, and if MSU does drop these next two, who knows what kind of mental space they will be in.
Right now, best case scenario in those three games is 1-2 probably. Earlier today I would have said 2-1. So if they only win one of the remaining games, that puts them at 10-10 in conference and at 13 losses overall. More significant, that means they are playing on Thursday of the Big Ten Tournament. I can’t speculate who they will play at this point and maybe they win one game, but I will not predict them making it to the semifinals. Adding the BTT loss, that now puts MSU at a 14th loss. I tried to do some internet sleuthing to see what the worst record for an at-large bid has been in the history of the NCAA Tournament, but I could not find that information. It is hard to imagine that there have been many teams with more losses than that who have received an at-large bid.
The way I see it, one of two things needs to happen for MSU to get one of those at-large bids.
- They beat Purdue on the road. Likelihood = 2/10.
- They make it to the BTT final, winning 3 games on the way including 2 against teams who had the coveted double-bye. Likelihood = 3/10.
I will ask the math nerds here to check me here, but I am calculating that, based on the odds I have given, the chances of at least one of those scenarios occurring is 44% (I feel like my math is wrong). If that is right, it is not horrible odds.
The question now becomes this: how can MSU accomplish one of those two things?
I think some of you in the comment sections lately have come up with a pretty good strategy for defeating the Boilermakers, and yes, it has to do with Xavier Booker getting big minutes. Unlike Mady Sissoko and Carson Cooper, who are not allowed to shoot from more than five feet away, Booker is going to need to step out often and hope he can draw Zach Edey with him. If the Spartans offense can lure the reigning National Player of the Year out of the lane on a regular basis, that could help the rest of the guys attack the basket off the dribble. We know AJ Hoggard can score in this manner. We know Tyson Walker can too. Today, for the first time in a long time, we saw Jaden Akins actually put the ball on the floor and try to attack the basket. It came with mixed results, but I think Tom Izzo needs to encourage him to continue doing it. And Malik Hall, while he may not be driving to the hole from the perimeter, could take advantage of his low post game if Edey is not in the vicinity to be a help defender.
On the other side of the court, this may be a game where MSU needs to use all of Sissoko’s, Cooper’s, and Jaxon Kohler’s fouls, not to mention some of Booker’s, to repeatedly put Edey at the line. He shoots a decent 72%, but he has the lowest rate of any of Purdue’s starters.
Again, I do not feel confident about it, but I do agree with those of you who have said it already that this would be the way to beat Purdue.
As for scheming how to win three games in the BTT, I obviously can not game plan for unknown opponents, but maybe the Spartans get the favorable time slots in each day so they never have the shorter turnaround time compared to the next opponent, and maybe that defense can step up and force a high number of turnovers like we have seen in some of our better wins this year, and maybe we just get a little bit of luck on top of that.
Wish our team luck, TOC Nation.