What went wrong at Oregon and what do the Spartans have to look forward to entering the second half of the season?
Takeaways and observations from Oregon
Be sure to check out Brian’s instant recap and Steve’s weather report for the Oregon game.
Early on, the game was defined by massive momentum swings for Michigan State. Oregon started with the ball and Dillon Gabriel went deep on the first play of the game. It fell incomplete with Ducks fans of course wanting a PI but they didn’t get it. The Spartans got Oregon to third and long and it seemed like, after last week’s first half against OSU, everyone was wondering if they could get off the field. This time, MSU got pressure on Gabriel, forcing another incompletion and the defense got the job done. Other than creating a turnover, this was probably the best start MSU could have asked for on defense: 3 plays, 2 yards, Oregon punt.
The Spartans started with decent field position but quickly faced their own third and long. Chiles found Glover on the sideline though and the Spartans did what Oregon couldn’t – pick up a first down on their first drive. MSU would face a fourth and 3 on the next series, just on Oregon’s side of the 50. I thought this might be a good place to punt and try to pin Oregon deep but Smith stayed aggressive and went for it. The result was probably MSU’s best play of the night, a Chiles to Marsh bomb that converted to the Oregon 2.
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We all know what happened next. Chiles scrambles and fumbles again. Worse yet, the ball is recovered by Oregon in the end zone, allowing them to start at the 20 instead of pinned back at the one or two yard line.
MSU had the best start they could realistically ask for and it’s just crushed in one play. The TV monitors in the press box showed a close up of Chiles leaving the field and he looked absolutely crushed and in disbelief at the same time. I remember thinking that maybe O had a point about sitting Chiles for a game.
Oregon moved down the field pretty quickly after the fumble and it seemed inevitable that they would capitalize on the turnover before Malik Spencer intercepted Gabriel in the end zone. Some hope returns for the Spartans.
Unfortunately, the offense wouldn’t really have a pulse again until Oregon sent their backups in for the fourth quarter. The rest of the half looked like this for the Spartans’ offense:
– 3 plays, 0 yards, punt
– 3 plays, 2 yards, punt
– 4 plays, 19 yards, punt. This followed Charles Brantley’s interception of Gabriel that went out of bounds at the 2 and at least got the Spartans off their own goal line.
– 5 plays, 17 yards, punt.
– Take a knee to end the half
Oregon started the scoring on their third drive and went up 7-0. Brantley’s pick was on their fourth drive and, at still only 7-0, it felt like the Spartans were in it if they could just move the ball a bit. But they weren’t going anywhere against this Oregon defense.
Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Oregon scored on their last two possessions of the first half. Their third touchdown was similar to Ohio State’s last week, coming right before the half to break MSU’s back. After a decent start and, despite nothing from the offense, MSU was still in it midway through the second quarter. But the two quick Oregon touchdowns sent MSU into halftime with the fear that this could get really ugly in the second half.
That didn’t happen but there also seemed to be a greater sense of frustration from the MSU players in this one, as evidenced by a couple of dead ball personal foul penalties in the first half. In the midst of a three game losing streak, it might be reasonable to wonder about the mood in the MSU locker room.
This was addressed in the post game press conference by Jack Velling, Charles Brantley, and head coach Jonathan Smith who noted the team’s shortcomings but remained positive about the second half of the season. Notable post game takeaways include:
Velling, regarding mistakes made by MSU vs. Oregon:
– It’s mostly 10 guys doing the right thing and one guy not.
– We’re hurting ourselves.
– We need to play a more complete game.
Brantley, on the outlook ahead:
– I believe in this team.
– We need to stay neutral.
– We need more communication, to make sure we’re on the same page.
– We’re going to improve every week.
Smith, on the Oregon game
– We challenged the guys at halftime, we need to play four quarters. I thought we did that but we just did not play well enough against a really good team.
– The line of scrimmage was not to our advantage.
– They had great balance (offensively, in the run and pass game). We had to pick and choose. We couldn’t get them to be one dimensional.
– When you play good teams, small errors will get exposed and execution will be tougher and we’re not there yet.
– On Chiles’ fumble on the first drive: There is a long game in front of us, got to be able to learn from it and move forward.
Photo by Steve Dykes/Getty Images
Smith, on the outlook ahead:
– I worry about Aidan’s confidence and that of the entire offense. But confident that these guys will keep working and improve.
– We can get better and will keep on plugging away.
– In response to any players asking to redshirt with intent to transfer: I have not gotten that, no.
Smith, on the upcoming bye week:
– We need the bye week. It’s been 11 straight weeks of going with 6 games and the 5 week fall camp.
– We need to take a step back and slow it down a bit.
– The coaches will take a look at what we’ve put on tape and digest that.
– The coaches will spend a day or two looking at the last 6 games, evaluate that, and let the guys recover. We’ll practice on Wednesday.
Post Oregon, is this team meeting pre-season expectations and is there a BC hangover?
If there was a Bell Curve of expectations for Spartan fans coming into the season, it seems the thick part of it would be something like 6-6 or maybe 7-5; just make a bowl game. Some may have expected 8-4 or even 9-3. Only the eternal optimists among us had the Spartans winning 10 or more games. Even Brian only had 9-3 .
Through 6 games, the average expectation was probably somewhere between 4-2 and 2-4. Very few saw the Spartans beating Ohio State and/or Oregon and were just hoping they looked like they belonged on the field with those two teams. Splitting the Maryland and BC games to sit at 3-3 was perhaps the most predicted outcome and that’s exactly what happened.
But how much of an effect is the BC game going to have going forward? That was a frustrating, winnable game. MSU had a few moments against Ohio State but otherwise learned how far away they still are from the Big Ten’s elite. If Michigan State prevails at BC and sits at 4-2, I think the fan base would certainly be disappointed in being less than competitive in the last two games but overall feel really good about a bowl game and maybe even getting to 8 or 9 wins.
Now, however, that path seems considerably harder.
What is the outlook for the second half of the season?
The Spartans have a challenging second half schedule. They are big underdogs to everyone on the remaining schedule except Purdue when looking at ESPN’s matchup predictor, for whatever that’s worth. However, the Spartans won’t face anyone like Ohio State or Oregon again this year. Here is what things look like the rest of the way:
10/19 Iowa, 7:30 PM, NBC
10/26 @ Michigan, TBD
11/2 Indiana, TBD
11/16 @ Illinois, TBD
11/22 Purdue, 8:00 PM, Fox
11/30 Rutgers, TBD
The most difficult remaining game is arguably at Michigan on October 26. Coming into the season, many people, including me, probably had this as an automatic loss but that’s not the case anymore. Michigan is not the same team as last year. They’ve been pretty limited in the pass game and moved on to their third quarterback last week against Washington. Based on everything we’ve seen so far, it should certainly be easier to make Michigan one dimensional compared to OSU and Oregon.
The Spartans get Indiana the following week in Spartan Stadium. If not the Michigan game, a strong case could probably be made for the Hoosiers being the best team remaining on MSU’s schedule. At 6-0 with 40+ points in five of those games, Indiana has exceeded expectations and has played extremely well. But what is their most impressive win so far? Probably a 42-13 victory at UCLA. Indiana is also on their bye week now. They host Nebraska and Washington before the MSU game and we could learn a little more about the Hoosiers when they face Nebraska.
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After Indiana, MSU travels to Illinois, who is currently ranked. MSU does get the Illini after their second bye week, however.
There is no sugar coating three losses in a row but there is still an opportunity to exceed expectations this year. MSU could realistically go anywhere from 1-5 to 6-0 to close out the season and that’s why I still think this is exciting. The Homecoming game against Iowa will be absolutely crucial.
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Fall to the Hawkeyes and it might be really hard to see three more wins and a bowl game on the schedule. Or come out of the bye week, beat the Hawkeyes, go into Michigan week with a lot of excitement and newfound momentum and we could feel a lot better about the rest of the season.