The Men visit Sham-Pain, The Women to LA
Tomorrow night, the 11th-ranked Spartans return to the State Farm Center in Champaign – that sounds like a place made for the MSU Spartan (once Aggies) to win. At 19-5 overall and 10-3 in Big Ten play, Michigan State has put itself in decent position heading into the back half of an increasingly challenging February – though the team knows each of those losses was very winnable.
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Illinois enters the matchup at 17-8 overall and 9-6 in the conference, still in the thick of the Big Ten race (or at least think they aren’t fully out of it) 2 games back from the leaders, but with a few more losses. The Illini bring a chip on their shoulder after falling to MSU back on January 19. That game was an 80-78 dogfight in the Bres, with Tre Holloman leading the way for the Spartans with 17 points, while Jeremy Fears Jr. dished out six assists. Illinois leaned on Will Riley’s 19 points and Kylan Boswell’s 9 rebounds, but ultimately, MSU jedi-mind-tricked Jakucionis into fouling out after 8 minutes of play and held on for a solid conference win.
Now, the rematch.
Looking at the numbers, Illinois and MSU boast the top two scoring offenses in the Big Ten, with the Illini putting up 82.8 points per game and the Spartans chipping in 78.2. However, MSU owns the conference’s stingiest defense, holding opponents to just 67.2 points per contest, while Illinois ranks eighth at 76.3. MSU should be able to find buckets, and if they can get the defensive effort that’s defined their best performances this season, they have the tools to slow down Illinois just enough.
Three-point shooting? Neither team is lighting it up from deep. MSU sits at 31.6% from beyond the arc, while Illinois is a league-worst 29.4%. This game will likely be won in the paint and at the free-throw line, the latter being where MSU holds a slight advantage, leading the conference at 81.8% from the stripe. Illinois is respectable at 77.3%, but if this turns into a foul-heavy game, the Spartans should be alright.
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Rebounding will be the battle, as these two squads sit at the top of the conference in both total and defensive boards. Illinois slightly edged MSU on the glass in the first matchup (41-40, with 15 offensive rebounds), and second-chance points could loom large once again. The Spartans need Cooper, Kohler, Carr and the rest of the frontcourt to counter the Illini’s physicality on the glass – that almost need not be said for Carr though his minutes were limited last outing.
Jakucionis looms as Illinois’ X-factor. The 6’6” Illini-by-way-of-Barcelona, Lithuanian guard has been a consistent force, averaging over 16.5 points and five assists per game. In the first matchup, foul trouble limited him to just eight minutes. If MSU can replicate that formula—get him into early foul trouble again and keep him on the bench—Illinois’ offensive flow will take a hit.
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For the Spartans, Jase Richardson has been emerging as a real weapon, logging 33 minutes and 13 points in the loss to Indiana. But MSU’s calling card this season has been its depth, and tomorrow should be no different. Fears will look to bounce back from a scoreless outing, Coen Carr should be a difference-maker in transition, and Xavier Booker could provide an X-factor performance inside—if he finds the right version of himself.
Prediction? A defensive game plan built around making Jakucionis uncomfortable and some remedies to beat a 3-2 zone – though we’ll see what Brunderwood and Co. throw at us defensively. Expect a tight one, but the Spartans can and should grind out another key conference win. Celebration stuff was getting ahead of things last outing. We’ll ignore it here.
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Robert Killips | Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK
On Sunday, the MSU women’s basketball team faces their toughest challenge yet as they head west to take on top-ranked UCLA. The #1-ranked Bruins (23-1, 11-1 Big Ten) just suffered their first loss of the season to crosstown rival USC, meaning they’re likely to be highly motivated and maybe just a little cranky. The Spartans (21-3, 10-2 Big Ten) aren’t going to be in the mood to roll over, though, and if they can force UCLA’s anger into frustration, poor shot selection and mistakes, an upset might just be in the cards.
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Lauren Betts leads UCLA with nearly 20 points and 10 rebounds per game while shooting 62% from the field. She also chips in three assists and three blocks per game for good measure. Slowing her down is going to be key, which means MSU’s Julia Ayrault and Grace VanSlooten will have their hands full. Ayrault, averaging 15 points and 8 rebounds per game, will need to be aggressive on both ends, while VanSlooten’s 15-point, 7-rebound production could be critical in keeping the Bruins’ size from overwhelming the Spartans inside.
Both teams shoot the ball well from deep, with UCLA featuring three players who hit the 36-37% range from beyond the arc. MSU counters with four shooters between 35-39%, which means perimeter defense will be a factor. If the Spartans can contest shots and UCLA isn’t hitting from outside, the game suddenly looks a lot more interesting.
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One possible advantage for MSU – MSU’s guard play. Jaddan Simmons leads the Big Ten in assist-to-turnover ratio at 2.53 and is one of three Spartans near the top of the league in steals. If MSU’s perimeter defense can force UCLA into turnovers and push the tempo, they’ll have a real shot at controlling the flow of the game.
Prediction? It’s going to take a near-perfect game, but MSU has the pieces to pull off the upset. If the Spartans can limit Betts, hit their outside shots, and dictate pace, don’t be surprised if they walk out of Pauley Pavilion with a statement win.
Happy Valentines.
Go Green.