The No. 7 Michigan State Spartans are heading west for a showdown with USC on Saturday afternoon, tipping off at 4:30 p.m. (Eastern) in LA. With a 9-0 Big Ten record and an 18-2 overall mark, the Spartans still sit atop the conference and have been solid through what may turn out to be the bottom half of league play – at least Izzo knows the road ahead is only going to get tougher. This California road trip, with UCLA looming next, presents a real test for MSU’s ability to stay locked in.
USC, meanwhile, is struggling to find consistency. The Trojans sit at 12-8 overall and 4-5 in the Big Ten, despite a respectable 9-5 mark at home. However, they’re coming off a tough loss to crosstown rival UCLA and will be looking to right the ship against our Michigan State squad.
The Numbers Favor the Spartans
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MSU is averaging 82.0 points per game in conference play while holding opponents to just 66.2. USC can put up points, scoring 76.9 per contest, but their defense has been suspect, allowing 77.3 points per game. That said, te Trojans do hold a slight edge in overall shooting percentage (48.9% to MSU’s 48.1%), and three point shooting (34.9% to MSU’s 33.1%).
That’s all fine, but Rebounding-wise the Spartans are collecting about 8 more per game than the 32 for USC, Blocking 3 more shots per game, and dishing 5 more Assists on an even Turnover rate at (12 per game) and Steals (even at 5.7 per game).
USC’s Depth (or lack thereof) is a Concern for them
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One of the biggest red flags for USC is their lack of depth. Three of their players—Desmond Claude, Wesley Yates III, and Saint Thomas—are averaging around 36 minutes per game in conference play, with a fourth, Chibuzo Agbo, logging over 33. Their fifth-most played player, Rashaun Agee, comes off the bench but still averages more minutes (24.6) than MSU’s most-used players, Tre Holloman (24.4) and Jeremy Fears Jr. (24.2). That’s a stark contrast to MSU’s more balanced rotation and regular fresh legs on the court.
Claude is the Trojans’ biggest offensive threat, averaging 19.3 points per game, while Yates III adds 15.6. Thomas and Agee each contribute around 12, and Agbo rounds out their primary scoring threats at 10. If each guy hits their mark they get 70. However, USC is already shorthanded, as former um transfer Terrance Williams is sidelined with a broken wrist. The Trojans only played seven guys in their last game – a home matchup against their Biggest Rival(!!!) Technically, an eighth player saw one minute of action. Yates, for his part, played all 40 minutes. If MSU can apply pressure and get USC into foul trouble, the Trojans will struggle to keep up over 40 minutes.
Defensive Intensity Will be Key
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Michigan State’s defense was suffocating in the first half of their last game against Minnesota. That kind of effort would be amazing to see again on Saturday. While Tom Izzo knows his team needs to clean up offensive execution—particularly cutting down on early-half turnovers and sharper pushing the ball—MSU’s defensive tenacity could be the deciding factor.
With superior depth, better defensive metrics, and a balanced offensive attack, MSU should have the upper hand. The Trojans may keep it interesting at home, but if the Spartans execute their game plan – and don’t believe the hype about them (in this case, the Spartans should come down out of their High Horse 😉 they’ll swing over to Westwood with another conference win in hand and a new challenge to focus on.
Go Green.