Spartans set to face Rutgers in Madison Square Garden
After passing arguably their biggest test of the season with an 80-78 win over Illinois at home last weekend, Michigan State will face Rutgers in New York City on Saturday. The game tips off at 1:30 PM and will be televised nationally on CBS.
With the win over the Illini, MSU improved to 16-2 overall and stayed perfect in the conference at 7-0. The Spartans are on an 11 game win streak and remain the only undefeated team in Big Ten games.
To be in the best position to win the conference title, it may be crucial for the Spartans to continue that streak for at least another couple of games. After Rutgers, MSU returns home to face Minnesota on Tuesday. Michigan State defeated the Gophers in Minneapolis to open the Big Ten season last month. After Rutgers and Minnesota, the Spartans have their West Coast swing to USC and UCLA before facing six teams currently ranked in the top 25 over their last nine games.
Rutgers received a decent amount of preseason attention after landing top recruits Ace Bailey Dylan Harper but they come into this game at just 10-9 overall and 3-5 in the Big Ten after an 80-72 loss to Penn State on Monday.
The Knights have suffered surprising losses at Kennesaw State (79-77 on November 24) and to Princeton (83-82 In Newark, NJ on December 21). However, in between those games, they suffered close losses to #4 Alabama (95-90) and #13 Texas A&M (81-77) in the Players Era Festival in Las Vegas in late November.
In addition to the latest loss at Penn State, Rutgers has also fallen to Ohio State, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Purdue in conference games. The Scarlet Knights won their first game against Penn State and also have Big Ten wins against UCLA and at Nebraska.
Even though they’ve been competitive against talented teams, Rutgers has yet to score a signature win on the season and are probably looking at Michigan State for that opportunity.
Rutgers is coached by Steve Pikiell who is in his ninth year leading the program. Pikiell took Rutgers to the 2021 and 2022 NCAA tournaments before slipping to the NIT in 2023 and finishing below .500 and out of the postseason last year.
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As expected given each team’s record in conference play, MSU has the advantage in some key statistical categories. Rutgers only averages 70.6 points per game which is ahead of only Washington’s 66.1. MSU, on the other hand, scores 83.4. Another big Spartan advantage may be in sharing the ball. Both teams average about 12 giveaways per game but Michigan State has 1.66 assist to turnover ratio – tied with Iowa for best in the conference – while Rutgers is only 0.95 and second worst in the league. Michigan State shoots it better from the floor (48.6% to 43.3%) and the line (83.2% to 65%). Believe it or not, MSU is even better from beyond the arc in conference games (34.4% to 33.1%).
Despite the mediocre record to date, Bailey and Harper seem to be living up to their recruiting rankings and doing their part for Rutgers.
Bailey was a consensus five star prospect and rated as a top five player nationally by multiple recruiting outlets. The 6’-10”, 200 pound small forward is leading Rutgers in points (19.9), rebounds (7.9), and minutes played per game (33.5). His 19.9 points are tied for the Big Ten lead with Northwestern’s Nick Martinelli. At just over 39% from three point range, Bailey has the ability to extend defenses.
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Harper is right behind Bailey averaging 19.3 points – good for third most in the Big Ten – and 5.1 rebounds in 32.4 minutes. The 6’-6”, 215 pound combo guard also leads Rutgers in assists with 4.3 per game. Harper was the number 2 recruit in the 2024 class.
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However, after Bailey and Harper, no one else on the Rutgers roster averages more than 24 minutes or 8 points per game. Lathan Somerville is a 6’-10”, 275 pound center, and another top 100 recruit for the Scarlet Knights, who has primarily been coming off the bench this season. He’s averaging 7.2 points and 4.2 boards in just under 20 minutes. Jeremiah Williams provides some experienced guard play to the Scarlet Knights. Williams is a fifth year senior who started his college career at Temple and is now averaging 7.2 points and 2.1 assists for Rutgers.
If Michigan State can contain Bailey and Harper, either through foul trouble as with Illinois’ Kasparas Jakucionis, or just solid team defense, and prevent anyone else on Rutgers’ roster from going off then it should help them get out of the Garden with a win. It probably won’t be easy though. Bailey is on a tear recently coming off a 30 point game in the loss to Penn State. In the two games before that, he scored 24 and 20 in Rutgers’ wins against UCLA and Nebraska.
It’s no secret and has been mentioned many times before how impressive the depth is on MSU’s roster and it should be another advantage in this game. In preparing for Rutgers, MSU knows they have to plan around Bailey and Harper. But when preparing for MSU, Rutgers may have to pick and choose what they can focus on.
Jaden Akins, like many Spartans, has had some shooting struggles but has been consistently solid. Frankie Fidler seems to be getting more comfortable. Coen Carr has shown an ability to put the ball on the floor and hit the occasional three point shot in addition to his amazing athleticism. Jeremy Fears has drawn comparisons to Mateen Cleaves and Tre Holloman has risen up in several situations for the Spartans, including most recently against Illinois. The interior trio of Jaxon Kohler, Syzmon Zapala, and Carson Cooper has been reliable. Jase Richardson may have hit the freshman wall a little bit lately but is still a massively talented player. And Xavier Booker has made some key plays in several games and we all keep waiting for a true breakout performance here.
It seems like each game we look forward to seeing who is going to have their moment in the sun for MSU. That must be hard for Rutgers, or any team, to prepare for.
Between the NCAA tournament, Champions Classic, and the 2023 game against Rutgers, Tom Izzo and the Spartans have had some struggles at Madison Square Garden. Hopefully they can break the spell this year to stay unblemished in conference play.