Spartans look to keep rolling in Evanston
The Spartans are on a tear, having won eight games in a row, including six by double digits, and are off to a 4-0 start in conference play. MSU is coming off an impressive 88-54 home win against Washington .
The next challenge awaits Sunday in Evanston, IL in the form of the Northwestern Wildcats. Tip off is at noon and the game will be televised on Fox.
Northwestern comes in at 10-5 overall and just 1-3 in the Big Ten. The Wildcats have dropped their last two games, both on the road, falling 84-80 to Penn State and then 79-61 to Purdue. The Purdue game was on January 5 so Northwestern will get to face the Spartans with a full week of preparation.
Prior to the two game skid, Northwestern had won four in a row and that winning streak started with their most impressive win of the season: a 70-66 overtime victory at home on December 6 against currently 13th ranked Illinois. Before Illinois, the Wildcats dropped a close one to Iowa, 80-79 on December 3.
Thankfully, notorious thorn in the Spartans side Boo Buie is finally off the Northwestern roster so MSU won’t have to worry about him going off again on Sunday. This year, the Wildcats are led in scoring by forward Nick Martinelli and guard Brooks Barnhizer. Both average just over 19 points and 36 minutes per game.
Martinelli, a 6’-7” junior, appears to have made a big jump from last year when he played 26 minutes per game and averaged 8.8 points. Barnhizer is a 6’-6” senior who also leads Northwestern with 9.5 rebounds per game from his guard/small forward position. He has also improved steadily in his time with the Wildcats, going from 7.7 points per game in his sophomore year to 14.6 as a junior and 19.3 so far this year.
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Jalen Leach also scores in double figures for the Wildcats with 13.5 per game. Leach is a 6’-4” grad transfer from Fairfield.
Coach Chris Collins is in his 12th season leading the Wildcats. Collins has led Northwestern to their only three NCAA tournament appearances, including back to back appearances in 2023 and 2024. Last year, Northwestern defeated Florida Atlantic and advanced to the second round of the tournament before falling to eventual national champion UConn. Collins was named the 2024 Big Ten Coach of the Year after Northwestern finished 22-12.
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In comparing the teams, MSU outscores opponents 81.5 – 65.9 while Northwestern is a bit lower at 74.1 – 66.2. In conference play it’s 84 – 60 for MSU, having blown out Nebraska and Washington, while Northwestern gets outscored 77.2 – 72.5.
The Spartans shoot it at 47.7% overall but a 28.4% mark from deep brings that average down. Northwestern hits at 44.8% and 32.5% from deep, not much better than MSU beyond the arc. The Wildcats limit opponents to 43% shooting.
Michigan State should have significant advantages in some of the areas Tom Izzo always attempts to instill in the program: rebounding and running. MSU owns a +11 rebound margin through 15 games while Northwestern is just +2. The Spartans, as we know, look to run and get 19.4 fast break points per game while the Wildcats, at 9.1, don’t run nearly as much.
Even though the game is on the road, there will hopefully be a lot of Chicago Spartans in the building. MSU should also have an advantage at the free throw line. MSU gets there over 23 times a game and shoots 82%. Northwestern shoots almost 20 free throws a game but only hits 72.6%.
Finally, Michigan State’s tremendous depth should help wear down the Wildcats. MSU’s bench scores 38.4 per game while Northwestern’s contributes just 13.3. It will essentially be Northwestern’s starting five against MSU’s rotating ten, which has worked very well for the Spartans to this point.
If Michigan State can play to and execute their strengths while taking care of the ball, they should come home from Chicagoland with a win, which would be crucially important given the difficulty of the second half of MSU’s Big Ten schedule.