On December 4, 2024, Michigan State went to the Twin Cities and came away with a 90-72 victory over Minnesota. It was the first Big Ten game for both teams in the 2024-25 season. For MSU, it was the first win in what is now an 8-0 conference record. For Minnesota, the loss got them started on their way to losing their first six B1G games before recently ripping off three wins. Impressively, two of those wins were against teams who were ranked at game time, um and Oregon.
Now the question becomes can the Golden Gophers continue their recent improved play when they come to East Lansing on Tuesday night to complete the season series. Or will MSU stay perfect in conference play and extend the win streak to 13? To answer that, we will first look back at that December game for some takeaways, and then we will dive into Minnesota’s recent winning streak to see what has changed, if anything.
In the first game between these two, MSU received scoring contributions from all twelve guys who played – Nick Sanders did not see the floor – while all five starters notched at least 8 points. Interestingly, there was a lot of congestion in MSU’s scoring distribution, with eight players scoring between 7 and the team-high 12 points, which was scored by Coen Carr off the bench. The most remarkable part of that game for MSU was their 11-22 (50%) performance from three-point land, amazing considering the overall struggle that part of the game has been for this year’s squad. Seven different players hit at least one shot from deep.
As is often the case, even in MSU victories, the game’s high scorer came from the opponent. In this game, Minnesota had three guys who scored at least as much as Carr – Dawson Garcia with 18, bench player Mike Mitchell Jr. with 17, and Lu’Cye Patterson with 12. That means that MSU only gave up 25 points to the rest of the Gophers. We have seen this often with MSU in the past and again this year where our defense seems to take a “pick your poison” approach, refusing to try shutting down the opponents’ best players in belief that sticking with Izzo’s defensive identity and making a couple guys have to beat us is a recipe for success. In that December game, that certainly happened.
Analyzing the box scores from Minnesota’s last three games, the scoring is still being dominated by Garcia and another guy or two, for the most part. It should be mentioned that Mitchell Jr. has been moved to the starting lineup since the first MSU game. In the game that started their win streak, against um, the same three guys who accounted for 65% of the points against MSU last time each hit the 20-point mark and combined for 82% of their scoring. In the next game, a 3-point road win at Iowa, Garcia had 20 to lead the way and Femi Odukale had 18. No one else had more than eight, but nine different players did score. Mitchell and Patterson struggled shooting in that one, combining to go 5-23 for 12 points. And in their most recent game, the win over Oregon, they actually had more even scoring distribution. Garcia, of course, had a big game with 31, but the other four starters had 13, 11, 10, and 8 points. The 13 was scored by Parker Fox, who averages 7.2 on the season. The bench was virtually nonexistent for Minnesota in that game, combining for 2 FGAs, 4 FTAs, and 4 points.
So that should inform Izzo and the coaching staff about Minnesota’s game plan. If Minnesota wants to beat us, it will take another herculean effort from Dawson Garcia. With the skill and size of the defenders on the MSU roster, the Spartans should be able to give Patterson and Mitchell Jr. a hard time, especially if we are to believe that our defense has improved in the last 8 weeks (I believe). Those two guys both stand 6’2”, so Akins, Holloman, Fears, and Richardson should be able to collectively frustrate them.
Garcia is really the only player on the roster (playing regular minutes) with significant size. At 6’11” and 234 pounds, the senior is going to be able to bang inside with the rotation of bigs that MSU will throw at him. Garcia has an endless motor and is averaging 35 minutes per game this year and a career-high 19.7 points. He has scored at least 20 in six of their last 7 games. Let’s accept he will probably be the high scorer on Tuesday night as well. And that is okay.
He may be good enough to lead his team to an upset over Oregon (at home), but he would need to go off on a Chamberlain-esque zone to take down MSU in the Breslin Center. Call me skeptical.