Can the Spartans go 5-for-5 in this gauntlet of games?
What a run it has been for the Michigan State Spartans. After that early February lull where the team lost 3 of 4 games, there were some (legitimate?) concerns that they would really fall behind as the Spartans had a five-game stretch against teams at the top of the conference. Four of those games were against ranked teams, while the fifth team, Illinois, was dropped from the top 25 the week of that game. All MSU has done since then is win the first four games of this gauntlet, and they have a chance to complete the sweep with a home game on Sunday afternoon against Wisconsin (1:30 PM ET on CBS). The Badgers are one of two other teams who still have a mathematical chance to take the Big Ten championship away from MSU this season. A win on Sunday at the Breslin would reduce that list to one team who will not be discussed in this article.
And we will get to the Badgers in just a second, but first, let’s revisit the winning streak that Michigan State currently finds itself on. Why? Because it will be fun. It began with a road win at Illinois where MSU flipped a 16-point first half deficit into a 14-point win. The Spartans followed that up by beating Purdue at home. After trailing by as much as seven in the first half, MSU grabbed the lead just before halftime and never looked back, pulling away after intermission to the tune of a nine-point win. Third up, a road game against (ah drats, I guess that team is being discussed in this article) um in which there were wild swings both ways. MSU jumped out to an eight-point lead early, only for um to flip the script and get an eight-point lead of their own before MSU drew closer at halftime. In the second half, the Spartans took the lead quickly, but the game remained close for several minutes. Then MSU managed to get some separation, only for um to get within a possession with five minutes left, but that is when MSU stepped on the gas and pulled away for a 13-point decision. And lastly, still on the road, Michigan State battled Maryland in a defensive showcase where both teams scored well below their season averages, neither team ever had a double-digit lead, and most of the game was played within a score or two. Maryland tied the game in the final minute, got a stop, had a chance to win it late, only to miss, and then
With three games remaining in the regular season, we look to the next game and wonder if our Spartans can make it five in a row in the hardest part of their schedule. The Maryland Terrapins, two games back in the standings, are also playing well of late, having won four of their last five, with the only loss being an overtime defeat against Oregon. Their offense is really clicking at the moment, having scored at least 88 points in three of the last four.
Like Michigan State, Wisconsin has some depth. They have nine players getting over ten minutes per game, seven of which get at least 18. In the scoring department, there is a little more variation in the Badgers output. Their two top scorers, Tonje and Blackwell – both named John and both guards – are averaging 19.5 and 15.2 PPG, respectively. The other three starters – Max Klesmit, Nolan Winter, and Steven Crowl – are all averaging between 9.6 and 9.8 PPG. That’s nearly 64 points just from the starters. As a team, they are scoring 81.9 per game on the season. By comparison, MSU averages 78.2. For what it is worth, Klesmit and Winter have been struggling to hit their averages over the last handful of games, and it has mainly been the other three starters carrying the team, offensively at least.
As a team, the Badgers are very good at protecting the ball, limiting themselves to a Big Ten-best 9.9 turnovers per game. At the same time, they are in 17th place in getting steals and blocks on the defensive end. I would have imagined, based on those stats, that Wisconsin would have much fewer possessions per game compared to MSU, but the two teams are nearly identical (70.6 for Wisconsin, 70.7 for MSU) over the course of the season.
The one thing I could think of which is bringing MSU’s number down toward Wisconsin’s is offensive rebounding, where the Spartans are second-best in the Big Ten with 12 per game, while Wisconsin is near the bottom of the conference at 9.2. The difference on the offensive glass accounts for most of the difference in the two teams’ total rebounds, 39.8 to 36.1 in MSU’s advantage. Individually, Wisconsin is led by Winter and Crowl in the rebounding department at 5.7 and 5.5 RPG respectively, both good enough to be in the top 25 of the Big Ten. The difference is that there is not another Badger in the conference’s top 100. Conversely, MSU has seven players in the top 100. So, if the MSU bigs can successfully box out those two guys, it’s going to be a rough day for Wisconsin on Sunday.
Wisconsin has had a respectable schedule. This will be the fourth game of theirs this year where their opponent has been ranked in the top ten at the time of the game. The other three were a win over #9 Arizona (currently #22), a loss to #5 Marquette (now #21), and a victory over #7 Purdue (#20). The Badgers are currently on the 3-line in ESPN’s most recent Bracketology , and they were projected as a 2-seed not too long ago. They are currently #11 in the NET, #8 in KENPOM, and hold a 14-6 record in Q1 and Q2 games.
Bottom line, Wisconsin is a tough team and they have been one of MSU’s better rivals in the Big Ten over the last couple decades, going back to the Bo Ryan days. Under Greg Gard, Tom Izzo and MSU hold an 11-6 advantage. With the feistiness and intensity that Michigan State has been playing lately, I believe that record is about to go to 12-6, another team will be eliminated from contention, and MSU will get closer to winning the Big Ten. Wisconsin is good but I do not think they have the horses to keep up with the Spartans in East Lansing.