Massive Big Ten Battle at Breslin
With Tom Izzo’s 354th conference victory finally secured, hopefully Michigan State can turn their full focus to a regular season Big Ten title. It will be a demanding final stretch, however, as MSU faces five ranked teams in their final six games, beginning Tuesday with Purdue in the Breslin Center (7 PM, streaming on Peacock – way to go, Big Ten).
The Spartans will enter the matchup in second place at 11-3 in the conference, a half game ahead of Purdue who is 11-4. Both teams trail 12-2 Michigan after the Wolverines escaped Columbus with an 86-83 victory over Ohio State yesterday.
While Michigan State and Purdue have put themselves in position for a conference title, they have also had their recent struggles.
Even with the great win Saturday at Illinois, MSU is just 2-3 in their last five games after starting conference play 9-0. The three losses – at USC and UCLA and at home against Indiana – were by a combined 12 points. In the two wins against Oregon and Illinois, the Spartans dug themselves massive holes early on before dominating the second half. As the season winds down, and perhaps without any “sure thing” victories left on the schedule, Michigan State will likely need something much closer to 40 consistent minutes on Tuesday . In other words, they probably want to avoid digging themselves another hole. They overcame Oregon and Illinois but it didn’t work out so well against USC and UCLA. And the Spartans also can’t be looking ahead to the Michigan game Friday in Ann Arbor.
As for Purdue, after winning five in a row, starting with a 91-64 thumping of the Wolverines in West Lafayette on January 24, the Boilermakers have dropped their last two. Purdue lost the rematch in Ann Arbor 75-73 last Tuesday and then fell 94-84 at home to Wisconsin on Saturday.
So, both teams really need this one. A fifth conference loss would really make it tough on Purdue to claim the regular season crown and, even though they still have two games coming up against Michigan, the Spartans don’t want to drop another home game after last week’s let down against Indiana. And of course there are NCAA tournament seeding considerations with a chance for a Quad 1 win in play.
The Boilermakers are led by a three-headed monster in Trey Kaufman-Renn, Braden Smith, and Fletcher Loyer.
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Kaufman-Renn is a 6’-9” junior who has massively improved for Purdue this year. After playing in every game last year averaging 6.4 points and 4 rebounds, he’s up to 19.4 and 6.3 this year in 30 minutes per game. Kaufman-Renn is really efficient and seems to get a lot of shots closer to the basket, as he converts 61% of his field goal attempts. This includes 43% from deep, but he hasn’t attempted a three pointer since December 29, so he’ll likely look to do most of his damage near the hoop.
It will be interesting to see how the Spartans defend Purdue. Will they try to limit Braden Smith and let Kaufman-Renn be a one man show? Smith, a 6’-0” 170 pound junior was heralded as one of the best backcourt players in the country coming into this season after earning first team All Big Ten honors last season. He hasn’t disappointed, scoring 16 points per game while dishing out almost 9 assists. He’s an effective shooter at nearly 45% overall and 39% from three but is coming off a rough game against Wisconsin. Smith played all 40 minutes but scored just 6 points on 20% shooting so he will certainly be looking to bounce back against the Spartans.
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Purdue has another excellent shooter in Fletcher Loyer, a 6’-5” guard who complements Smith in the back court. Loyer is scoring 14 per game this year on 47% shooting, which includes a very impressive 45% from beyond the arc. Loyer is the younger, but bigger, brother of former Spartan Foster Loyer so, according to O, the Izzone needs to bust out at least one “Foster’s better” chant tomorrow.
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Despite the last two setbacks, Purdue has done a lot of things well most of the year. They score nearly 79 points per game while limiting opponents to 70. They shoot almost 50% from the field and 38% from deep. Purdue is solid at the free throw line at 73% and the Boilers have a 1.6 assist to turnover ratio.
Matt Painter is in his 20th season leading the Boilermakers and, with a lot of help from Zach Edey, directed Purdue all the way to the NCAA Championship game last year before falling to Connecticut. Last year was Painter’s first Final Four and championship game appearance but he’s been solid for his entire career at Purdue averaging nearly 24 wins a season and making the Sweet Sixteen five of the past seven tournaments.
Set Number: X00004 TK1
In addition to how MSU tries to defend Purdue, it will be interesting to see if the Spartans can get their fast break game going again. Starting with USC, teams have been pretty effective in limiting the Spartans on the break in the last five games. The Spartans scored 19 off the break against Indiana and 11 against Oregon but have been limited to single digits in three of the last five games, including just six at Illinois.
MSU took care of the ball against the Illini though, giving it away just seven times after double digit turnovers in the previous four games, including a high of 16 at UCLA.
Finally, who might rise up for the Spartans in this one? Jaxon Kohler was the star against Illinois but Tre Holloman, Jase Richardson, and Jaden Akins also had some timely buckets in the second half. In fact, Akins scored all eight of his points at Illinois in the second half while Coen Carr helped get the Spartans back in it with ten in the first half. It will need to be a team effort against Purdue but will someone “go off” for the Spartans tomorrow?
Friday’s showdown in Ann Arbor will already be massive but a win against Purdue, besides looking good on their tournament resume, would mean Michigan State has a chance of coming out of Ann Arbor once again in sole possession of first place in the Big Ten.