One game at a time, please.
The No. 8 Michigan State Spartans take to the road this Thursday evening for a matchup against the Iowa Hawkeyes in Iowa City, tipping off at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on FS1. With just two games remaining in the regular season, the Spartans (15-3 B1G, 24-5 overall) are in control of their own destiny but the league tables still have some room to wiggle. A win in this one keeps them on track for an outright Big Ten title, while a slip-up could turn Sunday’s finale into a must-win scenario to avoid sharing the crown—or worse. Iowa (6-12 Big Ten) is… not in that conversation, but Fran-kan-schteen McCaffery’s squad isn’t roll, roll, rolling over in ze hay for anyone.
Offense in Iowa
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The Hawkeyes may be near the bottom of the conference standings, but their offense remains a threat. Senior forward Payton Sandfort (16.2 PPG) and junior guard Josh Dix (14.1 PPG) both shoot north of 42% from three, which should provide for an interesting defensive matchup for the Green. Graduate transfer Drew Thelwell (10.2 PPG, 52% FG) rounds out the primary scorers, while backup point guard Brock Harding (8.7 PPG, 5.5 APG) can help keep the offense flowing in his 26 min per game. The Hawkeyean depth chart hasn’t been horrible, but it does have issues, with just eight players getting meaningful minutes – particularly after losing starting Freshman of the Year and big man, Owen Freeman, for the season in early February. Sandfort and Dix both log over 32 per game, while Harding and Thelwell hover around 25. The younger Sandfort picks up 21 and a trio of young bigs attempts to cover the gap with minutes in the low teens. Five additional players off the bench hover in the mid single digits.
Statistically, Iowa’s scoring prowess (76.7 PPG, fifth in the Big Ten) is undone by a defense that attempts to light their opponent’s hands on fire – with no sign of soup or espresso anywhere. The Hawkeyes surrender 83.1 points per game, last in the conference. That’s the sort of discrepancy that suggests they can score, but with a modicum of defensive discipline, our guys should be fine. Conveniently, Michigan State has at least that, leading the Big Ten in limiting opponent scoring at 65.8 PPG.
Depth, Defense, and Free Throws (Mostly)
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Michigan State, as seen all season, operates in a deeper rotation. Ten players see the floor consistently, with only Jaden Akins averaging over 25 minutes per game. The Spartans’ balanced approach and fresher bodies makes them difficult to play past, let alone defend—Akins leads the team at 12.4 PPG, but scoring can come from anywhere. The guard trio of Jeremy Fears Jr., Tre Holloman, and Jase Richardson all log around 24 minutes, while Jaxon Kohler’s increased role (21 minutes) has helped boost the interior board play and scoring. Carson Cooper and Coen Carr each contribute about 18 minutes per game and have helped solidify interior defense. Fidler, Zapala and Booker round things out at 15, 15, and 13 – btw, check out Mike’s dive into pre-tourney minutes .
Our guys’ offensive efficiency has improved in recent weeks, particularly from beyond the arc. Early-season struggles from deep have given way to a more respectable showing, with six players now shooting at least 30% from three for the season. Holloman being technically the worst at 31.4% (for the season) and Kohler (nearly 42%) are among those helping to shift the narrative for the better. Certainly Book has been pushing up the average in his tight minutes. Free throws, however, have gone in the opposite direction. The Spartans still rank third in the Big Ten at 79%, but recent performances suggest that Coach Izzo will have guys at the line late during this break week until they each hit 20 in a row. That said, Iowa sits at 15th in the conference at 71%, so if this turns into a free-throw shooting contest, Iowa has a hump to clear.
Board Battles and Turnovers
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If there’s one area where the Spartans should dominate, it’s on the glass. Iowa ranks dead is dead last in rebounding, scraping together just under 30 boards per game, while MSU hauls in 40. The assist battle could be interesting—these are the top two teams in the Big Ten in that category, with MSU holding a slight edge at 17.1 to 16.5 per game. Turnovers tilt slightly in Iowa’s favor, but Michigan State compensates with superior shot-blocking. Ultimately, the biggest gap comes on the defensive end. Iowa gives up points at an abby normal rate, while Michigan State makes life miserable for opponents.
Final Thoughts
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On paper, this is a game Michigan State should win. The Spartans are deeper, better defensively, and more versatile on offense. Iowa can score, but stopping opponents, especially with the youngsters on the floor… not their forte. Unless the Hawkeyes turn this into a riot and start hitting everything in sight – and it’s is just about time they had one (though they should save it for Nebby on Sunday), MSU should handle business. The key for the Spartans will be staying locked in—not looking ahead to our own Sunday, regular-season finale. Play defense, crash the glass, and maybe hit a few free throws while we’re at it – and don’t get sick on the bumpy flight in.
Do that, and MSU should be leaving Iowa City with a clear focus – wrap the regular season with one more win. The fans can ponder potential for a new, asterisk-free banner in the Bres.
This is March.
Go Green.