Spartans and Lobos will meet in the second round
Michigan State, behind Coen Carr’s energy and 54(!) rebounds, including 21 on the offensive glass, eventually pulled away from pesky Bryant on Friday. The Spartans will next face 10th seeded New Mexico, who defeated 7th seed Marquette 75-66 in the game before MSU faced Bryant. It was a close game for much of the way with New Mexico trailing 58-57 with 6:44 to go but the Lobos took control from there to advance to the second round.
Donovan Dent led New Mexico with 21 points. Nelly Junior Joseph had 19 plus 7 rebounds while Tru Washington scored 12. CJ Nolan was the fourth Lobo in double figures, scoring 11 off the bench in his 23 minutes.
New Mexico seemed to show good team speed and often double-teamed whoever had the ball for Marquette. The Spartan guards will need to be ready for the on-ball pressure and the bigs may need to look out for dig downs in the post. Hopefully it can lead to quick kick outs from the paint and continued improved three-point shooting for the Spartans. MSU went 10-26 against Bryant but that included a couple of late misses from Kur Teng and Gehrig Normand and Jaden Akins struggling through a 2-10 performance. Otherwise, MSU hit 8-14, which helped them pull away in the second half.
With the opening round win against Marquette, New Mexico improved to 27-7. Similar to MSU in the Big Ten, the Lobos won the Mountain West regular season title with a 17-3 conference record and then lost to Boise State in the MWC tournament semi-finals.
Michigan State and New Mexico also share some common opponents this year. UNM defeated both UCLA and USC on neutral floors in November while Spartans fell to both LA schools on their West Coast swing in early February. St. John’s is the best team New Mexico has faced so far and they lost to the Red Storm 85-71 in New York City in mid-November.
Coming into the NCAA tournament, New Mexico scores 81.2 per game and gives up 70.8. As a team, they shoot 46%, including 35% on three pointers. They average a +4 rebounding margin, get to the free throw line 16 times per game, but only shoot 69% from the stripe. New Mexico’s opponents have shot 34% from three-point range. The Lobos turn it over 11.4 times per game but create 15 turnovers per game, although Marquette committed only 12 turnovers on Friday.
Four of New Mexico’s players average in double figures and this is a pretty experienced team. Donovan Dent, a 6’-2” junior guard, leads with 20.6 points and 6.4 assists in 35 minutes. Dent shoots 50%, including 42% on threes and is 78% from the free throw line.
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Nelly Junior Joseph is New Mexico’s interior threat. He averages a double-double in 31 minutes per game with 14 points and 11 boards. His points come near the basket and he isn’t a three-point threat. The 6’-10” 245 center is a fifth-year senior from Nigeria. He spent three years at Iona before transferring to New Mexico.
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Forward Mustapha Amzil is another five-year player for the Lobos and, like Joseph, is in his second year in Albuquerque after spending his first three years at Dayton. Amzil is 6’-9” but is not a great shooter, hitting at 38% and less than 30% from three-point range.
Tru Washington is a 6’-4” sophomore guard who scores 11 points per game on 43% shooting. He is a threat from beyond the arc at 35%.
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New Mexico appears to go at least 8 players deep, although CJ Noland was the only bench player to score against Marquette. The Lobos played ten against Marquette but, after Noland, the bench minutes were 7, 6, 1, and 1 so the Spartans can hopefully take advantage of their depth once again in this game.
Richard Pitino is in his fourth year leading the New Mexico program and has the Lobos headed in the right direction. In addition to their regular season conference title this year, New Mexico won the Mountain West tournament last year. UNM was ranked #303 in the NET when Pitino took over and now the Lobos are in their second straight NCAA tournament. The 2024 tournament was New Mexico’s first appearance since 2014.
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This is Pitino’s fourth NCAA tournament appearance after taking the Minnesota Golden Gophers to the Big Dance a couple of times. Pitino also led the Gophers to an NIT championship in his eight years in Minneapolis. He was named the 2017 Big Ten Coach of the Year after leading Minnesota to a 24-10 record. Spartan fans might remember Pitino from the second round of the 2019 NCAA tournament – the last year MSU went to a Final Four – where they beat Pitino’s Minnesota team in the second round.
Predictions:
Mike – Similar to the opener against Bryant, MSU will be challenged early but depth and perseverance pay off again and send the Spartans to the Sweet 16; 76-64 MSU.
Steve – 70-60 MSU
Brian – 81-68 MSU
O – I’ll say this one goes the opposite of the Bryant game as MSU will put up at least 50 in the 1st half and then have a smaller output after the break. I expect a better shooting performance from Jaden Akins, and he will be our leading scorer. MSU advances 89-71.
Shoutout to Brian for his accuracy in predicting the score of our 1st round game. His 84-62 call was oh so close to the eventual 87-62 final.
Let’s hear your score predictions in the comments.