Can Xavier Booker still earn an expanded role this season?
There has been a change to the starting lineup (Jase Richardson starting with Tre Holloman now coming off the bench) but Tom Izzo has stuck to his 10-man rotation throughout the season. And with great success so far.
It seems like the best bet is for that to continue as long as this run lasts for the Spartans. Izzo has previously stated he expects to stick with the ten-man rotation but also that the minutes distribution may change with performance.
So, in trying to predict what might happen in the B1G and NCAA tournaments, it might be helpful to look at how things are trending as the regular season wraps up (hopefully with an outright Big Ten Title for MSU).
We looked at minutes for the 10-man rotation in the six games – starting with the loss to Indiana – since Jase Richardson replaced Tre Holloman in the starting lineup – and compared those to each player’s season average. This is somewhat flawed because the season average includes the last six games. It may have been better to look at the first 23 games – through Oregon – and then compare those to the last six. However, it would have been time consuming to total up minutes for each player for those first 23 games and we want to get timely content for you, TOC!
Of course, some of this is going to be influenced by foul trouble too. For example, Richardson only played five minutes in the first half and 21 total minutes on Sunday against Wisconsin after picking up two quick fouls and then sitting the rest of the first half against the Badgers.
Even with that lower output, and unsurprisingly since he’s now a starter, Richardson has seen the biggest increase in minutes since the lineup change. In the last six games, Jase is playing nearly five minutes per game more than his season average.
After Jase, Jaxon Kohler’s minutes have gone up nearly three per game and this is probably influenced by 30-minute outings against Illinois and Wisconsin. Jeremy Fears’ minutes have gone down by a bit (1.3 per game) but generally, other than Richardson, the starters are playing about the same amount since Richardson began starting.
Holloman is also seeing about the same number of minutes off the bench (21.8) compared to his season average (22.8). And it may not be surprising to see Carson Cooper now getting a few more minutes per game since Izzo places a high premium on defense all the time but perhaps even more so in a stretch run.
Other bench players have gone down a bit in the last 6 games including Coen Carr (-4.4) and Frankie Fidler (-2.3). Frankie, however, made some plays against Wisconsin and saw 20 minutes of action on Sunday – perhaps proof that Izzo will ride the hot hand in addition to playing the guys he really trusts.
For example, in the last four games, Jaden Akins has played between 25 and 31 minutes after a high outlier of 35 against Indiana and a low outlier of 19 against Illinois. Until Sunday, Akins has really struggled to shoot the ball, but I think it’s a good bet that Izzo has extreme trust and confidence in Jaden’s leadership and defense.
The largest decrease in playing time, however, belongs to Xavier Booker, who has seen his minutes over the last six games drop by 5.5 compared to his season average. This is punctuated by only four minutes of action against Wisconsin.
In his post-Wisconsin presser, Izzo was asked (at 16:45 into the video) about if and how Booker could still contribute this year, and this was his response:
Well, you know, it’s probably every year there’s something or somebody that . . . we did, we tried to go right to him and get him some shots but, you know, the hardest part about the game is there’s two ends of the court and he’s struggled on some things but, you know what, I still love Book. I still think he’s got a chance to be a great player. The best thing I can say is there’s got to be a sense of urgency in practice and in games. I mean he comes every day ready to go but it’s just been difficult so what can he do for us? Well, he can make threes and he can rebound block shots and he does have length and size and he can run. There’s a lot he can do for us. So, like Jaden, I ain’t giving up on Book. At just certain times we struggled.
Izzo gave an example of Syzmon Zapala’s struggles in Sunday’s game and then went on to say:
We just go to keep working and get them through.
Izzo finished by saying this week is MSU’s spring break so the NCAA’s limit of 20 hours of “countable athletic-related activity” does not apply and, basically, that he could do whatever he wanted with practice this week. Izzo was clear that he didn’t want to run guys into the ground but would focus on extra things that wouldn’t wear the team out like more shooting work and video work, specifically mentioning Booker as a candidate for the latter.
Booker did see a slightly expanded role in last year’s brief NCAA tournament run. After averaging 3.7 points and 1.7 rebounds in just over 9 minutes per game in his freshman season, Booker played 11 minutes in the tournament opener against Mississippi State and then 14 in the loss to North Carolina that ended the Spartans’ season. Booker scored five in each of those games and pulled down five boards against Carolina.
Booker came in as a five-star recruit but much of that was based on athletic ability and potential. While some may have expected more from him last year, Izzo was clear from the beginning that there would need to be some development and Booker did end the year playing meaningful minutes in NCAA tournament games.
With 5.5 points and 2.5 rebounds in his 14.3 minutes per game, Booker’s numbers are up compared to last year. He’s shooting about the same – 42.5% this year compared to 43.9% last year – but his three-point accuracy has dropped from 33.3% to 24.6%.
Despite that, the trend isn’t good right now for Booker. In the last six games, he’s hit his season average in minutes only twice – at Illinois and at Maryland. He’s played single digit minutes in the other four games, culminating in Sunday’s low of four against Wisconsin.
I don’t think Izzo would ever give up on any of his players but he’s also not going to tolerate continued struggles or a lack of urgency on the defensive end.
So, if Xavier can’t address those things this year, in this day and age, it may be natural to wonder what might happen next year. Booker immediately said after the North Carolina loss last year that he was coming back. Hopefully that will be the case next year too, but he was probably also expecting a larger role this year. He has hit some very timely threes when he’s had the chance but he’s also probably the tenth guy in the rotation now.
Here’s hoping for a masterclass from the Spartan coaches in video review this week, a very attentive Booker, and a breakthrough that can further propel a deep run for an already promising team.