It’s hard to believe, but there have been some recent developments that spark concern.
First let’s start with a statement I think everyone on this site can agree on: Michigan State is a very good sports school.
The University has programs across various sports that are doing incredible things (seriously, what the Hockey team did this year , the women’s gymnastics team and even the women’s golf team is doing right now were all notable). And even the “revenue” sports of Men’s Basketball, Women’s Basketball and Football all have at least interesting storylines going on.
Fans can complain about Izzo and the team “underperforming” but compared to the majority of high major programs, the Spartans are still envied. Similarly the last year with Football was frankly painful (and embarrassing for some person in particular…), but the arrival of a new coach and a potentially bonafide star at quarterback has turned the sentiment around. And women’s basketball had a great first year under new head coach Robyn Fralick.
Compared to the majority of college athletics programs, it’s also safe to say that Michigan State is used to being among the “haves” rather than the “have-nots.” While Michigan State may trail some absolutely enormous funds spent by the likes of Alabama and Texas, big time funders like Matt Ishbia , Stephen St. Andre , and even Mike Williams have all given more than a million dollars each (much more in both St. Andre and Ishbia’s case) to keep Michigan State at least near the top 20 in overall program funding (number 12 in the nation according to USAToday ).
So to question if Michigan State is being left behind in the money race may seem absurd. But so is the current college athletics world.
The Changing Landscape of NIL Deals
Michigan State may be doing (very) well in their formal program funding, but NIL is changing the way college athletics need to be assessed. Direct NIL deals with players are exploding, and it’s unclear that Michigan State is keeping up.
A few years ago, at the dawn of NIL there were jokes about college QBs potentially earning 1-million dollars. Even less than a year ago, QBs making over a million dollars were on the “top ten earners lists” (like this one from August 2023 ). Now, it’s considered the standard expectation that any QB of any value is worth over a million dollars (See Matt Ruhle saying transfer QBs regularly demand 1 to 1.5 million dollars ).
And that is just in college football. What has happened this year in college basketball may be even more unprecedented. Indiana landed Arizona transfer Center Oumar Ballo for a reported $1.2 million dollars in NIL money. That is a ton of money. By some estimates that is more than any individual player on Michigan State made in NIL last year.
On some level, Ballo looks like he might deserve it. He was a double-double guy playing at a high level program with just one year of eligibility left. This guy is a pro (even if not in the NBA) and a college program needed to pay him like one to use his fifth year of eligibility. But that was the exception to the rule….all of three weeks ago.
Now we have Cliff Omoruyi transferring from Rutgers to Alabama. On paper, Omoruyi is pretty good. He is one of the nation’s leading shot blockers and averaged 10.4 points and 8.3 rebounds a game last year . On paper, he is not quite as good as Ballo. And on the eye test, he is not in the same league as Ballo (I say this as a fan who has watched him on-and-off for four years – both when he plays against Michigan State and at other times as I live near NJ). But some team reportedly wanted to pay Omoruyi $2-million dollars – an amount he actually turned down!
The Cost of Building a Roster
Now let’s do the math on what it is going to take to build a coherent roster in basketball (an easier exercise than football due to the smaller team). Let’s say a center is going to command 1 to 2-million dollars. Ok, that’s the base. Now a high powered wing is going to also cost around 1-million dollars (AJ Storr is reportedly using that as the floor for the offers he is entertaining ). That’s a roster made up of two guys that are going to routinely demand 2 to 2.5 million dollars.
Point guards matter a LOT in college, so let’s say even if you don’t need to pay them what a top swing man might demand (or reverse the allotment for those two), that’s at least $750,000. Now you have to surround those three with at least half decent supporting players who would most likely want somewhere in the range of $400,000 to $500,000 each. So that’s a total of: $3.75 million to $4.25 million just in your starting lineup. That doesn’t include a bench. That doesn’t include a 5-star recruit demanding to be (or ending up as) the highest paid player on your team.
For comparisons to Michigan State, there are estimates that Xavier Booker may have the richest overall NIL deal, in part because of his 5-star rating. ON3 lists Tyson Walker as the highest compensated on the team and even ranks Coen Carr above Booker, but the disagreement in valuations highlights a problem with transparency more than anything. Both Carr and Booker being near the top of the team list shows the funding necessary to bring in high school recruits, even if that is different initially than transfers. Neither were in the starting five last year, yet were amongst the most compensated on the team.
So looking at a college basketball roster, the starting lineup costs around $4-million dollars. Let’s say you have two highly regarded freshman that both get more than $500,000 just on expectation (that number is going to go up a lot if transfers are getting that much more, as it will need to to keep the young players from becoming transfers). So that’s $5-million for the starters and two freshman. Now you need at least two more role players, let’s say $250,000 each, that’s half a million. And after the first ten players you now maybe get away with $250,000 collectively. Though if you have a hidden gem on your bench, or an experienced role player, prepare to have to pay them just to stick around.
Let’s say easily $6-million dollars for a college basketball roster with some decent depth and a few key pieces. I’d still say this is not where the real number is going to be for truly top tier programs. But this relatively conservative estimate of a top 40 basketball program is still four times as much money as a full WNBA team roster. (If you feel the need to yell something bad about the WNBA do it, but do not get distracted from the core point here).
Is Michigan State really ready to start investing that type of money in NIL?
On the Football field it seems like the recent exodus in the transfer portal would suggest the universities funders are not. In basketball, the lack of a big man coming in could be as much about NIL funding as it is Tom Izzo being cantankerous.
It’s not just NIL to Players, It’s Also Events That Include NIL
An even more concerning evolution is starting to take shape in terms of NIL: Events that pay players (in)directly. The soon to be finalized “Players Era Festival” is a potential blueprint for the future of NIL payments in sports. The regular season men’s basketball event will take place in Las Vegas during next year’s season. Reportedly kicking off with 8-teams in the first year, and 16 in the second year. According to CBSSports , The list of schools is currently: Alabama, Houston, Notre Dame , Oregon, Rutgers, San Diego State and Texas A&M
Reportedly, other big name programs are considering joining for the expanded field, including: Duke, Gonzaga, Kansas, Michigan, Syracuse and Virginia.
Rutgers is beating Michigan State to a major national event with massive potential NIL offerings. And Michigan could be right behind them.
Yes, Michigan State is in the Champions Classic and some other premier events, but those do not currently supplement player income with NIL deals (at least not yet). If other schools are first to set up major events like this, will Michigan State switch off their traditional partners and join up? Is it painful to even consider that Michigan State, long an innovator in college basketball events (see: playing on an aircraft carrier) not at the forefront of this evolution.
Michigan State may announce they are joining (or creating) an event like this in a matter of weeks but for now it’s hard to separate the inherent unease leaders like Tom Izzo have had around NIL with Michigan State not being at the forefront. Those two factors raise a level of concern.
The Bigger Picture Concerns
Stepping back a bit and the picture feels even more unwieldy. Michigan State had a disaster in NIL with the SD4L debacle during the football season. Matt Ishbia has indicated he is pulling back from funding Michigan State athletics – particularly NIL deals over potential conflicts of interest since his purchase of the Phoenix Suns .
The exodus from the Football team may be explainable as part of the coaching change. The lack of a big man in the men’s basketball transfer portal can be blamed on Izzo more than money. But changing financial support from big names for Michigan State cannot be ignored.
Michigan State as a University – and as a community around the sports teams – needs to figure out how to stay at the forefront of NIL. Be it through events like the Players Era Festival, or funding deals with a broader set of sources than just Matt Ishbia and Stephen St. Andrew. Direct player funding is going to determine the future of college athletics and the impact of Michigan State sports.