Do or Die Time
MSU heads into the game against Rutgers on Saturday afternoon (3:30pm EST Kick) in a must-win situation to reach bowl eligibility, a 6-6 record, and a shot at finishing the season with a winning record, at 2.5 games above the pre-season over/under for wins. Rutgers comes into East Lansing on Saturday playing to reach 6-6 as well. Yes, technically they could walk home with their 7th win of the season, but this is Sparta and Rutgers, coming off a disappointing 39-31 loss to Illinois, will be playing to achieve their 6th loss.
Statistical Comparison
Ron Johnson-Imagn Images
Scoring:
- MSU: 19.8 points/game
- Rutgers: 26.7 points/game
Total Offense:
- MSU: 3748 yards (5.36 yards/play)
- Rutgers: 4209 yards (5.44 yards/play)
Rushing Attack:
- MSU: 1281 yards, 3.46 yards/attempt
- Rutgers: 1907 yards, 4.40 yards/attempt
Passing Game:
- MSU: 2467 yards, 12 TDs, 11 INTs, 128.82 passer rating
- Rutgers: 2302 yards, 16 TDs, 6 INTs, 123.22 passer rating
Defense:
- MSU: 329.0 yards allowed/game (5.38 yards/play), 9 interceptions
- Rutgers: 393.2 yards allowed/game (6.07 yards/play), 6 interceptions
The Scarlet Knights have a more productive offense, featuring Kyle Monangai bolstering Minnesota transfer QB Kaliakmanis. However, MSU’s defense has been more opportunistic, allowing fewer yards per play, simply few yards rushing in general, and creating nine interceptions. One wouldn’t necessarily believe that watching the second half of last week’s game against Purdon’t, and surely Rutgers has seen the backfield vulnerabilities on tape. It may be interesting to see if the Scarlet Pimpernels try to air it out more when they have one of the better running backs in the league in Monangai. This clash may truly come down to which team can find and capitalize on key defensive stops.
Key Players to Watch
Michigan State:
Aidan Chiles (QB, SO)
Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images
Chiles has thrown for 2,265 yards and 12 touchdowns this season. His dual-threat ability—236 rushing yards and 3 rushing TDs—always makes him a critical playmaker. When he’s calm and gets his feet set, he finds his targets. When he’s deciding between his read progression and running, his happy feet move faster than his arm and we have issues. That said, Aiden has reigned in the happiness in the latter part of the season – mixing excellent in with a few ankle-breakers and heart-breakers. Many Spartan fans have been wanting more from the transfer Captain in his first year starting – but he’s better than Athan and can win the Spartans this game.
Kay’ron Lynch-Adams (RB, SR)
Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images
With 580 rushing yards on the season, Lynch-Adams has been a steady presence in the backfield and has stepped past Carter in carries, total yards, and average yards per carry. MSU’s bowl hopes may rest on his (and Carter’s too) ability to keep drives alive and the defense honest against a stout, transfer-laden box.
Montorie Foster (WR, SR)
Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images
Foster’s experience and ability to create big plays in the passing game make him a reliable target for Chiles in clutch moments. Yes, Marsh will also be one to keep an eye on against this week’s defense, but Montorie wants to show out on his last game in Spartan Stadium. He did some nice work last week, look for that to continue.
Rutgers:
Kyle Monangai (RB, SR): The workhorse back has amassed 1,150 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. MSU’s defensive front will need to contain Monangai to keep the Scarlet Knights in check. It’s been a bit of a trade off of Defensive contain vs generating pressure on the QB this year – Joe Rossi’s crew was able to dial up more blitzing last week, let’s see if they can keep it going and punish Kyle in the backfield.
Athan Kaliakmanis (QB, SR): Kaliakmanis has been inconsistent but can still be dangerous, with 2,302 passing yards and 16 touchdowns. Pressure will be key to disrupting his rhythm. Even if he’s salivating at the Spartan depleted secondary, he’s not the second coming of Tom Savage.
Dariel Djabome (LB, JR): Djabome leads Rutgers’ defense with 95 tackles (6 for loss). He’ll be a primary focus for MSU’s O-Line and someone they’ll need to keep out of the backfield.
The Bottom Line
The Spartans enter this matchup with urgency—a win is our only ticket to postseason play. Jonathan Smith’s squad has shown flashes of potential throughout the season, and Saturday’s game is a last chance to put it all together for the first complete game of the season. With Rutgers struggling defensively and coming off a taxing loss to Illinois, MSU has an opportunity to exploit vulnerabilities, particularly with the passing game.
Expect Chiles to lead an overperforming offense while the defense focuses on containing Monangai. In most games forcing Rutgers into third-and-long situations would be the goal and making the Rutgers pass game to beat us. This week, taking a little pressure off the secondary with additional blitzes is in order. If MSU can continue to limit turnovers (even exploit Rutgers’ potential to make them) and convert in the red zone, Spartan Stadium should be celebrating a season-making victory on December’s eve.
Prediction: Bowl eligibility—Go Green!