Fighting to Stay Out of the Basement
It’s crunch time for the Michigan State Spartans, who need back-to-back wins to secure bowl eligibility and finish the season above .500. This Friday night at Spartan Stadium, MSU hosts the Purdue Boilermakers in a game that might feel like a “trap” to some fans, a chance to rebound for others. Either way, the Spartans had better win. Purdue sits at the bottom of the league and has been outclassed for most of the season. Still, with both teams fighting to salvage something, this matchup could be tighter than expected.
Tale of the Tape
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Michigan State…………………………………………Purdue
19.4 points/gm………………………………………….17.2
25.5 points allowed/gm………………………………38.9
345.5 total yds/gm…………………………………….305.4
328.1 total yds allowed/gm…………………………441.2
114.7 rushing yds/gm…………………………………83.7
230.8 passing yds/gm………………………………..221.7
–5 turnover margin……………………………………..-8
MSU has been more balanced offensively, er. can actually move the ball when they don’t shoot themselves in the feet. Purdue’s struggles are apparent on both sides of the ball. The Boilermakers give up nearly 40 points per game, and their rushing attack has been almost nonexistent (though MSU’s has taken a hit the last couple games as well). Looking for clear advantages for MSU – the yards and points allowed by Purdue definitely skews in favor of opportunity for the Spartans. The team just needs to take advantage and play a full game – not even letting Purdue get a whiff of hanging close.
Key Players to Watch
Michigan State
Aidan Chiles, QB
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Chiles has shown poise and flashes of brilliance at times this year. His mobility (40 rushing yards last game on +71/-31) adds an extra dimension to the offense. That said, he’s holding the ball way too long, thinking through his reads Hamlet-style, vs letting ‘er rip. That led to 5 sacks last week and way too few balls thrown in general, let alone those magical ones Aiden pulls out from time to time. Coming off a mixed performance vs Illinois (256 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs on 23/40), if Chiles is going to lead the offense he needs to get the ball out and be a gunslinger or use his feet – not take a few seconds to decide. It’s clear on replay that his receivers are often getting open, he has to trust that – especially against Friday night’s D.
Nick Marsh, WR
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The freshman standout has been MSU’s most reliable target this season, averaging 16.5 yards per catch with 611 total receiving yards. Expect him to challenge Purdue’s secondary early and often.
Jordan Turner, LB
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Turner leads the Spartans with 57 tackles and has been pivotal in limiting opponents’ ground games. He had a massive TFL late in the game with Illinois in goal-to-go and the game about out of reach. He’s the undisputed leader driving this defense and he’ll be key in disrupting Purdue’s struggling offense.
Purdue
Hudson Card, QB
The Boilermakers’ signal-caller has had a rocky year but remains their best chance at moving the ball. Purdue did throw for 217 and a Touchdown against PSU last weekend – though that was across three QBs. Card was 11/20 for 151 and did not have the TD. 26 of the total came on one play from third stringer, Christian Gelov on the penultimate toss in mop-up time.
Devin Mockobee, RB
Through Purdue’s poor rushing stats, Mockobee has been a bright-ish spot, with 650 yards on the season. Despite his 11 for 40 day against Penn State, MSU’s defense will need to keep him contained. Purdue needs him picking up some sort of yardage if they want any hope of keeping the Green on their toes.
Kydran Jenkins, LB & Dillon Thieneman, S
Jenkins is a disruptive force on defense with eight sacks this season. He’ll be Purdue’s main weapon in trying to rattle Chiles and the Spartan offensive line. Thieneman leads Purdue in tackles and has 3.5 TFLs himself, coming up from his safety spot.
Final Thoughts
Despite MSU’s struggles this season, this is a game they should win if they avoid self-inflicted mistakes. Purdue’s porous defense and lack of offensive consistency play into the Spartans’ favor. Expect Chiles to lean on Marsh and the running game to sustain drives, while the defense capitalizes on Purdue’s turnover issues. Purdue hasn’t quit yet, but they’re not far from – they’ll come out swinging their boilermallets. Too bad this isn’t croquet.
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Prediction: The Spartans keep their bowl hopes alive heading into the final week.