As Michigan State gears up to face Illinois, the Spartans look to capitalize on their second bye week in what should be an intense Big Ten matchup. While the Fighting Illini enter the game with an offense led by Ole Miss transfer quarterback Luke Altmyer, they lost last week in Champaign with Minnesota in town and fell out of the AP Poll completely. MSU has aimed to level-up on both sides of the ball with the extra rest and time with the playbook and game tape. Both teams are hungry for a strong performance on Saturday. Let’s take a look at what MSU fans can expect as the Spartans aim to edge out Illinois.
Tale of the Tape
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The Spartans enter this matchup with a defensive unit that has done well in slowing down opponents rushing, helping keep the average yards per play lower than Illinois’ opponents overall. MSU’s defense also boasts 49 tackles for loss (TFL) compared to Illinois’ 37. The Spartans’ have the potential for getting into the backfield and making plays – at least when the bad guys are running. The pass rush has been an issue though with no sacks since BC back in September. As always, the Spartans have Jonathan Kim and can capitalize on field goals (89.5% success rate vs 82.4% and general success from closer in), which could prove crucial in a game that may come down to a battle of inches. While going for three is better than a TO, one of the team’s key issues has been (the lack of) scoring touchdowns once over the opponent’s 40. Good ball movement downfield resulting in TDs is what we’re looking for this week, not just leaning on Kim’s leg.
On offense, Michigan State’s passing game has slightly outperformed Illinois in yardage, (believe it or not) led by an growing connection between sophomore quarterback Aidan Chiles and his receivers. The bigger difference comes with TD/INTs (Chiles at 8/11 to Altmyer at 16/3). With both teams showing very similar stats in terms of total offense and scoring, the outcome may depend on individual performances and big defensive plays. Jaron Glover may be back this week – from the Coach Smith presser, he’ll likely be a game-time decision. As always, if MSU can keep from shooting themselves in the feet with turnovers and penalties, they have a great shot at leaving Champaign on top.
Key Players to Watch
Michigan State
Aidan Chiles, QB
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Chiles has shown flashes of brilliance this season, accumulating 1,850 passing yards with a passer rating of 130.91. He’s also added 170 rushing yards, giving him a versatility that could keep Illinois’ defense guessing. His growth as a dual-threat playmaker has been evident, and as he continues to develop, expect him to make an impact through both the air and on the ground.
Kay’ron Lynch-Adams / Nate Carter RB
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As MSU’s lead running back with 469 rushing yards, Lynch-Adams has been the consistency needed in the Spartans’ ground game while Carter has flashed hot and occasionally cold – though coming on more recently. The pair both average over 4.4 yards per carry (4.79 for KLA), and steady positive yardage will be essential against an Illinois defense that has struggled at times to contain the run. Lynch-Adams has the potential to grind down Illinois’ defense, especially in the later stages of the game. Carter, behind a refreshed and in-sync O-line looks like the player we were hoping for.
Jordan Turner, LB
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Turner leads the Spartans in total tackles and tackles for loss (7.5 TFL for 42 yards). He can disrupt the opposition’s backfield. Getting back there will be crucial in putting pressure on Altmyer and the Illinois run game. Turner’s presence on the field could set the tone for MSU’s defense and create turnover opportunities. He missed the playing against the Illini last year for Wisco (where people hold a special disdain for the flatlanders). A rested Jordan should be on fire.
Illinois
Luke Altmyer, QB
Altmyer has been the offensive leader for Illinois, amassing 1,893 passing yards and 148 rushing yards. His journey to Illinois from the University of Mississippi (Ole Miss) brought a seasoned playmaker to the Illini roster. Though he’s been successful in spreading the ball around, his past seasons have shown some inconsistency under pressure. MSU’s defense should look to exploit this and make Altmyer uncomfortable early in the game.
Josh McCray, Kaden Feagin, Aidan Laughery RB
McCray brings a physical presence to the Illinois backfield, with 330 rushing yards and 4.6 YPC average this season. Though carries are spread across Feagin and Laughery as well, with both near 300 yards on higher YPC than the Spartans’ backs (4.6, 5.4) and both with over 50 carries. Their ability to gain tough yardage will be crucial in balancing Illinois’ offense and preventing the Spartans from keying solely on Altmyer. McCray’s is considered durable and his experience may make him a challenging runner to contain.
Gabe Jacas, OLB
Though Dylan Rosiek leads Illinois in tackles, Jacas has been a standout on Illinois’ defense with 8.5 tackles for loss and 57 TFL yards this season. As one of the main disruptors, he will be key in applying pressure on Chiles and limiting MSU’s rushing attack. Jacas’ ability to impact both the pass and run game makes him a player MSU will need to account for on every snap.
The Path to Victory for MSU
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For the Spartans, capitalizing on Illinois’ weaknesses will be essential. Illinois has given up more rushing yards than MSU, which could present a window for Lynch-Adams and Carter to find success on the ground. Illinois’ vulnerability in allowing big plays on defense might just give Chiles the opportunity to connect with his receivers downfield, adding depth to MSU’s offensive approach.
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Defensively, Michigan State’s focus should be on disrupting Altmyer’s rhythm. With Altmyer’s previous tendency to falter under pressure, Turner and Bogle’s roles along with a rested D-line become even more significant. Keeping Altmyer off-balance and containing McCray could stymie Illinois’ offense and create opportunities for MSU to control the tempo.
Prediction
Despite playing away against a recently top-25 team, the Spartans have the potential to grind out a win over Illinois. If Chiles can continue his upward trajectory and MSU’s defense rises to the occasion, Michigan State fans could see the Spartans come out on top in this pivotal Big Ten clash. I’m picking it that way – scores to follow in O’s pre-game.