The highly touted freshman has been a flashpoint for critics of Tom Izzo, they are missing the real problem.
Michigan State men’s basketball fans have spent the days since their home loss to Ohio State searching for answers. The most common topic of concern and outrage has been Coach Tom Izzo’s handling of freshman Xavier Booker. The Booker situation is interesting, but it has become a smoke screen, obscuring the real player development crisis facing Michigan State. To understand, let’s get into some context.
A Season Suddenly Off Kilter
The Spartan’s men’s basketball team is in a tailspin. An up and down season finally seemed to stabilize as the Spartans went 8-2 in a key stretch of Big Ten play. Now, they’ve lost back-to-back home games to teams in the bottom half of the Big Ten (Iowa and Ohio State) and are about to face conference leader Purdue on the road.
This most likely means MSU ends the season at best 2-3, presuming a loss to Purdue and wins vs Northwestern and Indiana. Considering the struggles against lowly Ohio State and Iowa, a win against Northwestern is not a given, and a final collapse against Indiana is well within the realm of possibility.
A season that started with talk of a national championship is suddenly looking like one that could threaten Tom Izzo’s streak of NCAA tournament appearances.
The Xavier Booker Factor
This year has given new life to critics of Tom Izzo. Common complaints about the hall of fame coach include: he doesn’t handle high talent freshmen well; he can’t coach big men; and his offense lacks needed contemporary elements. Highly touted freshman Xavier Booker entered the scene as either an embodiment of all of those critiques, or a great counterpoint for the Spartan coach. Unfortunately for the Spartans, Booker’s early returns were pretty ugly.
Booker looked overmatched almost immediately at the collegiate level. The 6’11” forward/center looked too weak to defend opposing big men, and too lost to do much on either end of the floor other than hang around the three point line and cherry pick open shots.
Despite his clear struggles, a vocal segment of the fan base decided Booker was being held back by Izzo. His lack of early starting (let alone playing time) over 5th year senior Malik Hall drove certain fans absolutely nuts. This continued even as Hall established himself as essential to the Spartans and a consistent double digit scorer in Big Ten play.
In recent games, the debate around Booker became more intense as the freshman had a few stretches of relatively error free basketball. This culminated in the surprise decision to start Booker against Ohio State. Notably, Booker started at center, not the power forward spot most fans had anointed as his.
This decision by Tom Izzo showed some early returns as the offense simply looked different with the young freshman on the floor. This is largely due to Booker’s ability to hit threes. No other center on Michigan State’s roster can be trusted to shoot, let alone shoot from outside. The floor spacing benefits were apparent on the court and a major focal point of post game quotes from other Michigan State players.
Instead of applauding the hard work Michigan State’s coaching staff has done to mold Booker from an ineffectual and lost freshman into a potential starter in less than a year, the fan base decided that Izzo not riding the Freshman for the closing 15-minutes of the loss to Ohio State was coaching malfeasance.
The noise is deafening around the Booker issue. It also completely misses the real crisis for this team (and their coaching): the backcourt.
The Real Crisis for Michigan State
Michigan State was not ranked as a preseason top 5 team because of Booker. It was ranked a preseason top 5 teamhighly because it had one of the most experienced and (perceived to be) talented back courts in the country. Tyson Walker was an established on court power. AJ Hoggard and Jaden Akins were seen as potential NBA caliber talents who both spent the summer getting feedback from the next level. That three headed monster was supposed to be joined by a developing Tre Holloman and a high-ceiling freshman in Jeremy Fears, Jr. That is why Michigan State was ranked in the top 5.
Looking back at last year, this expectation had a basis in reality. The problem is that the results at the end of last year are almost the exact opposite of what they were a year ago.
AJ Hoggard
The senior point guard ended last year on an absolute tear. His last 8 games were all in double digits, including three games over 20-points. This year, the results are not nearly as good. Hoggard has failed to reach double digits in 5 of the last 7 games. His scoring average has dropped two points a game (about 13 points last year and 11 this year). His leadership, grit, and will/ability to take over games has disappeared for long stretches this year.
Early on the drop off in Hoggard’s performance was attributed to the presence of highly touted freshman Jeremy Fears, Jr. making him essentially nervous (not a great characteristic in a senior team leader). After Fears’ tragic non-fatal shooting while home on winter break, Hoggard has had no pressure behind him. Initially his play improved, but thendropped off substantially.
Much of the Spartan struggle can be attributed to Hoggard’s inconsistent play. Still, his struggles help cover for an even larger disappointment in player development.
Jaden Akins
Last year, after spending the first half of the season initially out with, then recovering from, an injury, Akins scored in double digits in 6 of the last 7 games. This year, he has 3 straight games with less than 10-points. Two of those three home losses. Further, he has scored exactly 10 or less in 9 of the last 12 games. That is not the scoring powerhouse Akins was expected to be.
Last year, Akins filled the corner three role for Michigan State shooting 42.2% from deep. This year he is shooting 38%.
Beyond the statistics, Akins has struggled all year to transition into a ball handling threat capable of getting his own shot. This was supposed to be the big leap for the Junior. That leap has clearly not happened.
Tre Holloman
Holloman was a classic Michigan State freshman in his first year. He earned trusted minutes by protecting the basketball and playing tough defense. His scoring in his first year was essentially a non-factor, but that wasn’t unexpected.
This year, Holloman was expected to improve. And at times he has shown massive improvement. There was the Alcorn St. game where he stepped into the shooting guard role for an injured Tyson Walker, went 5-5 from three and scored 17-points. The problem is that was the high water mark by far.
Despite being the featured “scorer” off the bench (i.e. not Carson Cooper who is usually the first off the bench), Holloman has scored double digits in only 4 games this year. In five of his last nine games he has scored 2 or fewer points.
There has been almost no player development. This year, Holloman again takes care of the basketball and plays defense. While he has displayed some flashes passing the ball and had the occasional sharp shooting night from three, he has provided minimal scoring support off the bench.
A year ago, Malik Hall essentially played this role off the bench for Michigan State. The difference in production is remarkable. It is also an indictment of the level of development the coaching staff is getting out of the back court.
Tyson Walker
Walker is largely the same guy he was last year. Even hobbled by a nagging groin injury, he has still scored in double figures in 38 of his last 39 games in a Spartan uniform. The one area that may be worth mentioning in terms of development is free throws. Walker gave an early season interview claiming his main focus in the off season was improving getting to the line and hitting free throws when there. That has largely not worked this season and in a few key games Walker’s inconsistency at the line have cost Michigan State.
While Walker is essentially the same guy as last year, he also did not show the improvement from off season development one might expect.
Jeremy Fears, Jr.
Fears gets a pass in this situation because of the shooting that derailed his season. It is impossible to know what his impact would have been and how much in-season development he would have displayed.
What this means for the coaching staff
While the fans can yell and scream about Xavier Booker and Tom Izzo’s approach with the high-potential freshman, this is actually not the problem with this year’s coaching.
Michigan State’s coaching staff took what should be one of the best backcourts in the country and we saw essentially the entire unit regress this year. If you want to figure out why this season is in a tailspin, that is the real crisis on this squad.