Ups and Downs
Explosiveness
Efficiency
Field Position
Finishing Drives
Turnovers. Dag@#$nab*%$&f^!@!! Turnovers.
Welcome back to MSU’s dive into the Five Factors! Today we’re looking back at Prairie View A&M and Bastages Collie. That’s right, Far*%!n Bastages and their acceptances of our fumblages and interceptories. Ten points in two minutes?? ‘M gonna sine your pitty on the runny kine!
Enough of that, let’s look at the charts.
As expected, MSU looked pretty good against Prairie View – we’re not going to spend too much time here, with the game so one-sided. Though of particular note are the differentials for Yards per Run in favor of MSU (4.9 yards per run!!), Percentage of Available Yards which the Green tipped similarly, Zero turnovers (it can be done!), and yet, worse field position overall. I’ll pull up the team trend in a second, but MSU should not be starting their drives with a long field Every. Single. Drive. I know overall, special teams has felt like an improvement over a year ago. The team can do better here. The running it out of the end-zone mistakes can be forgiven, as we do need that aggressive intent. However, it’s the missed blocks which are getting guys blown up at the 5 and 16 when our deep returners do opt to run it out which seems to be a growing theme. Not just there, BC should have had one of our punts blocked and everyone on the Punt Team knows it (Fortunately, the Eagles players didn’t know what they were doing back there. Hence, Eckley is still alive and his Heisman campaign remains in tact).
Speaking of Boston College…
Far more red in the Margin column than necessary. I think we all knew that passing regressed. More than a few of you are thinking, if Nick Marsh were in, some of those deep shots would have been caught, not lost over Montorie’s fingertips. It’s a lovely sentiment, but not the reality we get to live in – not because it’s not true, just because it didn’t happen. Marsh is Game Time Decision this week, but at least we get Glover back. Aiden Chiles is going to be under more pressure than he’s faced all year, so don’t expect this number to jump on Saturday. However, it can still improve with just good short passes and not trying to force the ball into deep routes that just aren’t open (and aren’t going to get burned open against the Buckeye D). BTW, how many of you would have thought we won the run game? Granted Aiden had the lion’s share and his runs kept that stat afloat. Also, maybe the staff needs to look at not starting Nate Cater 7-yards behind the line. Regardless, the Green was able to pound just enough to keep the BC defenders honest a smidge.
Turnovers we covered in the intro.
Field Position: We had 11.5 more Yards per Drive than BC. Yet, combine that with the starting Field Position differential and it’s a wash and a wasted opportunity to turn a couple of those 3’s into 7’s.
Finishing Drives was frustrating: Inside the 40 of BC we had four field goals, two interceptions, and the lone TD. The play calling wasn’t bad. Though, looking at the drop in passing output and the number of 3rd-and-long situations MSU was in, and you can see why overall Yards per Drive was way down. Impressively though, the MSU Defense held BC to two decent looking drives and a pittance of not even 25 Yards/Drive for the game – an 11.5 yard differential in our favor. Unfortunately, one of those good drives for them came in the last few minutes of the 4th quarter. Personally, watching the D lock down BC most of the game combined with a noticeable ability to move the team at least partway downfield, I felt like MSU had the game right where they wanted it (save for those $nag!#%#itzen two minutes to start the 3rd). We don’t track penalties in Five Factors, but the O only had 3 for 25. Big improvement.
Trends
Please note: It is not my intention to offend the actual scientists among the crowd with the absence of units on the dual/dueling axes on the graph. I just cram-combined like four different number scales onto the two axes and assume you all can figure it out. Also, I think I have a source for the right NCAA-wide data to make additional comparisons – I just to dig in now and crunch to make sure.
I started to do another version of the above graph with the Prairie View game omitted – but it is part of the season, and the presence of that game’s data highlights the need for improvement across the board. However, what those numbers do hide is that even with the step back, MSU is still trending in the right direction across most all categories from the first two games of the season through Boston College.
Turnovers are simply unacceptable. My fellow writer, Steve, predicted that four is our number again this week. I’m betting him a hot fudge sundae from Culver’s (though preferably Kopp’s) that he’s wrong.
What I want to see going forward is, minimally, a bounce back to the Maryland numbers across most categories this weekend. We’re a young team going up against a veteran juggernaut who hasn’t been on the road or really challenged yet this year. Maybe we’ll just be a speed bump for OSU, or maybe MSU finds a way to exploit some of OSU’s aggressiveness.
Either way, I think our early season sacrifices to the AOLHG pay off and Stanton Ramil has a really good game. I think Coach Michalczik manages to work at least one newbie into the rotation, if not two. And he manages to move the pocket a bit, opening up a couple more options for Chiles in the process.
Anyhow, we’ll see. Don’t skip the MSU game for whatever is happening down South. You’ll get highlights from both all week – but enjoy the roller coaster that will be MSU vs OSU.
Go Green!
Adam Cairns / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images