What would it take for MSU to get to that top line?
What up TOC, some of us were having a little conversation about tournament seeding and arguing if MSU has a chance to get a 1-seed this year. I started thinking about this a few days ago, and I shot an email to Chris Dobbertean, who runs SB Nation’s designated site for these matters, Blogging The Bracket . In his last piece predicting the field, Chris had Auburn, Duke, Houston, and Alabama as the 1-seeds. I asked Chris if there is a path for MSU or any other school to take one of those top seeds, presumably from Bama or maybe even Houston. I expected a few short sentences in reply. What I got was, well, you all should read this:
Tossing out the 2021 Tournament, when the Committee stuck more closely to the NET than they have since, the lowest-ranked team in the NET to earn a 1 seed was 9th-ranked Kansas in 2023, with 2024 UNC (8th) and 2022 Kansas (6th) following.
Looking at the 2 line, the lowest-ranked teams were 2024’s Marquette (14th in the NET, 7th on the seed list), 2023 Marquette (12th and 8th), and 2022 Duke (12th and 8th).
So, teams that want to end up on the 1 line need to get into the NET top 9 at a minimum.
Recently, it seems like only three of the four teams with the most Quad 1 wins make the top line, with one being shuffled down to the 2 line at a minimum:
2022: Gonzaga (10 wins, 1 NET, 1 overall seed); Kansas (12 wins, 6 NET, 3 overall); Baylor (10 wins, 4 NET, 4 overall); and Tennessee (11 wins, NET 7, 10 overall (3 seed))
The fourth No. 1 seed: Arizona: 2 overall, 2 NET, 6 Q1 wins)
2023: Alabama (13 wins, 2 NET, 1 overall seed); Kansas (17 wins, 9 NET, 3 overall); Purdue (10 wins, 5 NET, 4 overall); and Texas (14 wins, NET 7, 6 overall seed (2 seed))
The fourth No. 1 seed: Houston: 2 overall, 1 NET, 7 Q1 wins)
2024: UConn (13 wins, 1 overall seed); Houston (16 wins, 2 overall); Purdue (12 wins, 3 overall); and Iowa State (10 wins, NET 6, 8 overall (2 seed))
The fourth No. 1 seed: North Carolina: 4 overall, 8 NET, 9 Q1 wins)
Right now, Auburn is well ahead of everyone in terms of Q1 wins at 15, with Michigan State second at 10, followed by Alabama, Houston, and Tennessee in a three-way tie for third at 9.
So, if you look at the Q1 win metric, Michigan State is in great shape to get to the top line, as long as the Spartans move up a couple of spots in the NET. 11th isn’t going to do it.
But it’s not all rosy. Thanks to the anomalous strength at the top of the SEC and Big 12 and the fact Michigan State leads a group of five Big Ten teams ranked between 11th and 17th, the Spartans (and Maryland in 12th for that matter) are 0-0 in games against the NET Top 10. Of the top 10 teams in the NET, only one does not have a top 10 win (Gonzaga, who is a ridiculous outlier this year), and only one has a single top 10 win (Alabama, at 1-3). The other eight teams have at least two such wins with four teams owning winning records against the top 10—Duke 2-0, Auburn 4-2, Houston 4-2, and Florida 3-1.
That, in my opinion, is the biggest obstacle to any team hoping to break through to the top line in 2025. In its final season in the AAC, Houston managed to earn a 1 seed in 2023 with an 0-1 record against the top 10. But the Cougars were 15-2 against Quads 1 and 2 and were No. 1 in the NET, so they were able to overcome Kansas (21-7 vs. Q1/Q2); Purdue (19-5); UCLA (17-5); and Texas (18-8) just on sheer winning percentage in those games. Note that the top-10-win pattern extends even to the 2 line, as last year’s Marquette team is the only recent example of a team with no top 10 wins finding themselves there. (2022 Houston was 3rd in the NET but 0-0 in Top 10 games and ended up as a 5!)
Looking at how top seed contenders have performed against Quads 1 and 2 in 2025: Duke is 11-3; Auburn 21-3; Houston 17-4; Florida 16-4. Michigan State is actually well positioned here to take advantage of a loss, as the Spartans are 15-5 in Q1/Q2 games, followed by Tennessee at 14-6, Texas Tech at 12-6, Alabama at 17-7, and Iowa State at 14-8.
However, not having a Top 10 win hurts Michigan State. The Spartans are the only legit 1 seed contender without one. Given that all the possibilities for breaking through to the top 10 are ranked below the Spartans, asking for one to do so may end up being a double-edged sword.
One thing that may help is an outright conference championship, since that’s something non-Auburn SEC contenders will not be able to claim, though Houston has one already and Duke has a great chance. But don’t expect a tournament title to help. The Committee has shown they don’t really factor in the Big Ten championship game into their deliberations since it’s right before the Selection Show.
First of all, a big thank you to Chris for that awesome, informative answer. Second, to all my Spartans, I am going to state my position. I predict that if MSU wins these final two regular season games and then makes it to Sunday in the BTT, that we will end up a 1-seed. Of course, this whole thing becomes irrelevant if MSU drops a game before then.