The Curves Don’t Lie
Good Morning Green!
Welcome back to Basketball’s Four Factors – MSU’s Non-Conference play in the young 2024-25 season. While yes, we’re into December, technically it’s March minus three months, so yeah, still young,
As a refresher, the Four Factors are the “Moneyball” stats starting point for basketball statistics and getting a feel for how a team is doing. The link above has the nitty gritty, though the quick refresher is:
Shooting – measured by effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%)
Turnovers – as a percentage, relative to shots and free throws
Free Throw Rate – those made relative to shots put up
Rebounding – relative to the opponent, for both offense and defense.
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So how did the team do – we know the Spartans had two losses, Kansas and Memphis – but neither felt out of control. The early season wins included a few against mid-major opponents, with the mid-majors elevating across the board, as well as Colorado and UNC. Those last two giving a bit of confidence that the team would be getting to where it needed to be for the start of the B!G play where the good guys later whomped Minnie and Nebby.
The curves are mixed for where the team wants to be as the season progress. Top of the chart is Defensive Rebounding, which hovered near the 75% mark before really rising those last three matchups in Honolulu (sneak peak: against Minnesota the percentage fell back to 73% but shot back up to 90% vs Nebraska). Rebounding has long been the hallmark of an Izzo-coached team and for the Hawaii tourney really this really seemed to click (along with other aspects of the team play).
Marco Garcia-Imagn Images
Similarly Shooting is generally on the rise following the low-point vs Kansas. This doesn’t include the big bumps in the start of B1G play where MSU hit 11 and 9 threes, respectively. This line should be over 50% to really be in games and well over to be dominating. The last two we’re averaging about 61.5% so definitely there has been an elevation in the switch from the non-con, and for eFG% that’s really about the three’s dropping. The shooters aren’t just getting better looks, they also seem calmer, smoother – more rested perhaps? We can dig into that in a different article, once we see how more of the conference play rolls out.
Marco Garcia-Imagn Images
Offensive Rebounding is the red line trending downward – which makes sense against the Power 4 and generally better team aggressiveness. You can see it’s hand-in-hand with Free throw rate, also unfortunately trending downward – following a low against the buffaloing Buffalos. Getting points at the charity stripe will be huge in keeping the B1G bigs on the bench as much as we can and, despite the overall trend, was the difference maker in the game vs the Tar Heels. The Spartans gained more points from the line vs every team except CO, which averaged out to about 6 points per game. Our guys in Green are averaging an extra 10 so far in B1G play.
Marco Garcia-Imagn Images
Unfortunately, turnovers also notched up a smidge against the stiffer competition. Always a point of emphasis which has managed to get reigned in the second halves of the last few seasons, this will be a stat to keep an eye on. Between Fears, Holloman, and Richardson we have some solid talent running the point. The rotation of bigs can handle the ball in their roles and all are getting more comfortable with each other – they’ll need to, given the larger rotation than we’re used to. It’s keeping everyone fresher and playing well, but TOs is a potential negative which may manifest.
Marco Garcia-Imagn Images
Regardless, the Non-conference has wrapped generally heading in the right direction, despite some tough battles in the autumn months. The Spartans scooped some confidence and rhythm in the early B1G play and a lot of momentum with the camaraderie going up and the long balls going down. Really looking forward to seeing how this season develops. Go Green!